I might not be a good person to measure against.. and gold is not dumping seems like a big so what?
Hopefully none of us are buying much if any gold, or getting distracted by it.
Mostly, I have not been injecting new cash into bitcoin since early 2017 -
I think last time on another thread you told me how much btc you have, they were not even 1 BTC. Correct me if I am wrong and sorry if I talk about something in here that I shouldn't have.
It is not good for anyone to be talking about their stack size or the stack sizes of other members - even though from time to time, we will talk about hypotheticals and also talk about what our stack sizes might be or could be and even misinformation and disinformation that might be based on facts and/or pure fantasy.
So, it is good to take from those stories as you will, and surely there are some members who particularly provide their personal details, or they might feel that providing some particular personal details is helpful in making their personal point more clearly or more credibly. Sometimes, the information provided might contradict too. Whether the contradiction needs to be sussed out might be another story.
As if you have stopped buying since early 2017 don't you think it's a bit biased to tell others to keep buying and dcaing and not trading, but holding, I am not laying fingers, just a question out of curiosity.
I am frequently suggesting that guys stay focused on accumulating until they reach overaccumulation status.
Once a guy reaches overaccumulation status, his options greatly increase.
Guys have to figure out what is their own overaccumulation status and there are various ways to come to such an assessment.
In recent times (maybe the last couple of years?), I have come up with new ways of assessing overaccumulation status that are different from my ways of assessing my having had reached overaccumulation status in late 2014 (or maybe if not late 2014 by mid-to-late 2015).
A lot of guys consider it is a good idea to sell coins before they have reached overaccumulation status and they speculate that they can buy back cheaper.
Personally, I believe that it is a bad idea to sell bitcoin with a plan of trying to buy back cheaper, even though I am not against the idea of selling on the way up and buying on the way down.. especially for guys who have reached overaccumulation status, so it may well be problematic to sell on the way up when you have already figured out that you don't even have enough coins in the first place.
Guys can do whatever they like, even dumb shit.
I think that there are good reasons for guys to stay focused on accumulation of BTC through buying ONLY for at least a whole cycle, and perhaps even a couple of cycles, yet sure, guys can consider themselves smarter than everyone else and do whatever they like, including having fun never reaching overaccumulation status... since it is likely going to be quite difficult to ever reach overaccumulation status if you are selling your coins and/or focusing on strategies that deviate from persistent, consistent, regular, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive buying of bitcoin. But hey if you want to employ selling and/or waiting as your strategy, then sure, that might work.. perhaps? Perhaps you got it figured out and you can identify various waves that help you do better than guys who stay focused on buy only BTc accumulation techniques.
I do respect your povs though because we must keep holdings our bags as you have helped me understand one thing that long term conviction usually wins, timing rarely does.
Guys have to be careful when they consider switching their strategy based on what another guy is doing or has been doing - especially if one guy might reasonably be at or above overaccumulation status and another guy might be in his early stages of accumulating and hardly making any progress in building his bitcoin holdings, and he wants to trade rather than staying focused on BTC accumulation.
There are also some guys who are ONLY able to accumulate from their income, and they are lucky to figure out how to accumulate even 10% of their income in bitcoin, so it may well take them 10 years or more to invest a whole year's income into bitcoin, and there are other guys who may have had been investing in various non-bitcoin areas for 10-20 years or more, and so when they come to bitcoin, they might already have an ability to front load 1-2 years or more of their income into bitcoin within a year or two, so guys who front load their investment may well be in a different position as compared with guys who are ONLY able to invest from their income at a rate of 10% or even less than that.
It tends to take a long time to build up a bitcoin stash, even for guys who might come to bitcoin with a lot of money, they may still take 6 months to 24 months or even longer to establish their position, since they might not want to sell much if any of their other assets while they are establishing their bitcoin position.
He lost it all in a boating accident, you need to keep up.
go back a few years
go back a few years..
let me tell you a story
about JJG..
Let me guess.
The "story" starts out like this:
"JJG walks into a bar....
....
....."
Was about to post the same thing. I saw it this morning too
Hopefully it looks like it.
The market moves in a similar way and that is the reason why traders are using the previous market movement to check how the future price is gonna move and react to price. Once you understand the market behaviors you will be surprised that Bitcoin has virtually similar patterns and movement. Although this pattern should not be seen as the priority in speculating the future price.
We still have more bullish candles to count before any diversion or change in trend.
It seems crazy to be trying to trade on such historical patterns - especially since the patterns are even more clear once the whole history had ended up playing itself out rather than having any ability to identify what may or may not happen next (based on perhaps slightly greater than 50/50 odds).
[edited out]
his claim of owning 0.63 btc is very likely an understatement.
hell i own more than that.
That is a bit of a dilemma.
Remember the context of my claim came from around 2021 or so, when we were transitioning to a point in which it was already starting to become impractical for guys to shoot for accumulating a whole bitcoin... so then if the target for accumulating might be 0.21 BTC or 21 million satoshis, then at that time, I was willing to admit that I had accumulated more than 3x the amounts that newbie guys might be starting out as their target accumulation level.
In recent times, I have been hearing that guys might shoot for reaching 1 million satoshis and then sure each additional million satoshis that they reach would be a good thing - especially for someone who might have limited discretionary income and who might take some time to build up his bitcoin holdings.
How many bitcoin we need and how long it might take us to get to such a status tends to have a lot of factors, and right now, 0.63 BTC is starting to seem like a lot of bitcoin, and it could take several years for guys to reach 0.63 BTC or more.
Maybe another thing, as you well know Philip, is how many bitcoin that we were able to accumulate historically does not necessarily reflect how many bitcoin we had been able to retain.
Part of the reason that I suggest that guys get to overaccumulation status before selling any bitcoin has to do with such a dynamic, since once a guy starts to sell his bitcoin, he might not be able to get back to his earlier stash level, without having to spend way more money to get his stash back to such a level.
I am not claiming to know the answer, since each guy has to attempt to assess how to deal with his BTC accumulation and/or even whether he might consider himself to have had graduated frrom accumulation status and into maintenance status based on his own individual particulars (I had listed
9 of them).
[edited out]
1 - 1/e ≈ 0.63
If you know, you know.
That's beyond my current puzzle solving capabilities.
his claim of owning 0.63 btc is very likely an understatement.
hell i own more than that.
The .63 that I may or may not have works just fine for all intents and purposes. As everything we post here is hypothetical, the crazy part is I can be more forthcoming here than I am in meatspace... I definitely agree this drop was more of a WHEEEEE moment for me rather than a OHH SHITE type of moment. Even though the liquidations were massive, it doesn't matter if you are HODLing. I am, however, really leaning into time-based selling, and even then only if I think I need more fiat than I currently possess. It's been nice to not stay glued to portfolios (no matter how small they may be!)
We do have over half of UPtober left...
K
For sure.
The various formulas work with any quantity of bitcoin, yet surely it we have more bitcoin then we have more to work with, yet bitcoin is pretty powerful once you have actually accurately calculated having had reached overaccumulation status. If you are accurate in your calculations, then you may well be ble to start to withdraw fiat from bitcoin forever.
Frequently it would be helpful to have extra beyond bare minimum overaccumulation status, so then you have some extra flexibility, so sure as you say, if you have various fiat sources, then you spend your fiat first so that your bitcoin can continue to grow and/or compound upon itself. If we have been in bitcoin for a couple of cycles or more, then it is likely that the value of our bitcoin is ongoingly compounding upon itself.
his claim of owning 0.63 btc is very likely an understatement.
hell i own more than that.
The .63 that I may or may not have works just fine for all intents and purposes. As everything we post here is hypothetical, the crazy part is I can be more forthcoming here than I am in meatspace... I definitely agree this drop was more of a WHEEEEE moment for me rather than a OHH SHITE type of moment. Even though the liquidations were massive, it doesn't matter if you are HODLing. I am, however, really leaning into time-based selling, and even then only if I think I need more fiat than I currently possess. It's been nice to not stay glued to portfolios (no matter how small they may be!)
We do have over half of UPtober left...
K
Do you really think that JJG would spend so much time on this forum if he has <1
BTC? I don't buy it. I think he had > 100
BTC at some point. May be he sold some, but I doubt he has <90
BTC now.
You are telling a story that sounds just like the story that another member had told about himself. Accordingly, you are mixing me up with another forum member since I don't speak about those kinds of specifics - and furthermore it is likely not good to argue about those kinds of specifics, even though, sure, I have no problem throwing out a few hypotheticals that include some other WO participant.. so for example, I could say something like:'
If Ivomm were to have had a goal to reach fuck you status, and his income in the past 10 years had been somewhere between $35k and $65k, yet he had told himself that if he were to be able to draw an income of
$80k per year from his bitcoin, then right now he would likely need to have at least 14.8832BTC in order to sustainably (perpetually) be able to provide him with that level of income (including a 7% per year increase - in terms of dollars).
Of course, if he were to have more than that quantity, then he would have some extra cushion for periods that he might want to spend beyond his budget, in the event that he were to not have any other income sources.
Another thing is that several of us might well have income sources outside of bitcoin, yet it could well be the case that some day we would end up depleting all of our other income sources, so then we might ONLY have bitcoin remaining as our only income source.
By the way, it is my opinion that even if we have mostly only bitcoin and cash as our only remaining investments/savings for our income sources, it probably is better to create some systems in which we have other income sources too, even if those other income sources are likely to be inferior to bitcoin.. .yet of course, it is discretionary regarding which other income sources we create for ourselves and the extent to which we don't get diverted away from bitcoin based on our choices to keep some time, energy and value in inferior assets/currencies.
....... discussing with precise quantities is unbecoming to such fine gentlemen.
That seems to come off as a reasonably fine clarification of the matter at hand, which might explain why some formulas have a kind of gobble-dee-gook flavor to them.. .. which even the knowing that we know might cause us to suspect that we might not know..
(I don't even like myself for having had written that very sentence).
115k is better than 106k
maybe 125 by Thursday.
Well, Phil - It dipped to $104.6K and it's already back up $10k to $115k, so another quick $10k puts it right at your $125k mark on Thursday.
I hope it happens - I wouldn't bet against it happening...
We use Bitstamp as our price reference in this thread, so generally speaking the BTC price ONLY dipped to $109,683 (as far as our overall BTC price reference) - even though there were various exchanges in which the BTC price dropped lower than the Bitstamp bottom.
Usually the various exchanges are not so far out of sync as they had gotten to be in this particular drop, so this particular dippening brought quite a bit of out-of-sync-ness in various exchanges (and I even heard some of them ran out of liquidity, which was part of the explanation for the out-of-sync-ness - like the good ole days when there tended to be a lot more out-of-sync-ness.
