US–China, tariffs, macro noise… whatever. Let’s stick to the tape:

~5× from ~$15k (Dec ’22) to ~$75k (Mar ’24).

~–30% pullback to ~$50k.

Then roughly ~2.5× since… but still no convincing expansion.

We’re now in Q4. It’s hard to see a clean 2× from the 2021 ATH (which was already underwhelming in fiat terms) without a decisive move soon.

I’m not trying to be a bear. But if you still believe in the current cycle (even shifted slightly into Q1 ’26), the higher-probability path might be more “new ATHs for ants” than a true hot green dildos ATH.

Let’s not be greedy or stubborn. If you want to avoid –50%/–60% drawdowns, you may need to rotate/hedge/take profits and be ready for another disappointing top unless the market reacts decisively this quarter.

ETH/alt market is still mostly underwater (not the topic of this thread, but worth noting).

Faith is there; pragmatism says the breaking point isn’t far. We’re already mid-October.

Not financial advice. Curious to hear the best bull counter-case.