I personally do not agree that the bull market is over, for one simple reason. And it is that there was no such thing this year at all. It was a year with multiple crashes and recoveries, each time going 1-2% higher than the previous ATH. I would define this as a sideways movement with an indication of an upcoming bull market. Even now we are 20% below the last ATH and at level 0 compared to the beginning of the year. At the moment there is one unknown and that is whether this crash is not due to a still unknown to us large bankruptcy like FTX, sales of a large amount of bitcoins by a large investor like Tesla, etc. If this is the case, we will have a bear market, despite the fact that we have not had a bull market. Whether in a year we will hit -80% as we always have and will "rejoice" at prices of 30K or whether we will hold at some higher level like 100K, 90K, 70K,... I do not dare to predict. But I am partially prepared for this. Based on my expenses from the previous 4 years, I gradually sold over 110K for the next 4 years of life expenses. I also bought a new car for 100K euros, so I hope I will not have any new major expenses so that I do not have to sell at prices about 30K. Yes, it will be unpleasant for me to drop out of the status that I virtually had at 126K, but this is a choice that I have always made. It is better to feel poor and humiliated than to have sold too much and watch the price break through 150K, 200K, etc. without it bringing me any benefits. Not to mention that in just 5-6 years the current 1m will be equivalent in purchasing power to at most 500K, or maybe 100K.
It seems a bit ridiculous to even proclaim $30k is in the cards.
Sure $30k is possible (like a non-zero chance) but it is still a quite unreasonable number.
Luckily my buy orders still go down to $33k- even though I have no problem pulling all of those below $40k.
I just wanted to make sure that I was ongoingly prepared for any outrageous dips that might go 35% below the 200-WMA.. .. yet it seems that we would need some pretty outrageous thing to happen for even 35% below the 200-WMA to occur, and right now the 200-WMA is nearly $55k.. so 35% below that would be $36k.. which I have a hard time considering 35% below the 200-WMA happening unless we get some kind of an outrageous UPpity price movement first.
Maybe I am just in denial of the realm of possibilities... such as more outrageous than any previous set of corrections.
You make a good point that the dollar (and/or fiat) is debasing at pace that seems to be around at least 50% in 5-6 years.. .. I have a hard time imagining it to debase 90% in only 5-6 years.. that would be a kind of craziness that woudl cause a lot of instability..
[editing out]
Searing's Adage on Bitcoin
------------------------------1) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is 'pumping' you will get in when it is 'dumping'.
2) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is 'dumping' you will get in when it is still 'dumping' just lower down the chain.
3) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is going sideways....you will 'wait' to buy because it is too high or not low enough....when stable on sideways..it confuses you.
4) IF when you buy everyone and else sells (buddies) and when you sell everyone else buys (buddies) and they get mad if they are not informed of your actions before
hand....you have a problem
5) Bitcoin is a "merciless bitch' so don't time the market above...just HODL and at least accumulate some more btc dust.....failure is your friend it forces
you eventually to HODL.
The above is 'mostly' correct but only applies to me personally....which I guess I should be thankful for...above 'beat me into HODL'ing' all these years.....stupidity on the
above and failure saved me and made me the HODL'er I am since 2015 (coward..cower and HODL) ...I am today.....sheesh....lame but hey it seems to still be working.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, the 'merciless slut' is out on the street again...lowering price to flash her knickers at the world and make my blood pressure boil....grrrr....
she will come back right, she loves me right,....she won't crush my dreams? grrrr....
Personally, I think that you are fighting the last war.
You already won such war.
You have enough coins to employ price-based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal, even though you likely allocated too many of your coins into a trust for people who do not deserve the coins as much as you do.
In other words, fuck that trust that you made. You should reverse it and restructure it so that you are ONLY locking up somewhere in the ballpark of 25% to 40% of your coins to undeserving heirs (and that will be plenty for them).
The remainder of your coins, you can set up for price-based and/or time based sustainable withdrawal and pay yourself a decent income.
If you were to just skip the price based sustainable withdrawal system, you likely could pay yourself an income of around $250k to $300k per year with a 7% per year increase, and you are never, ever, ever going to run out of coins, in order to support yourself at that rate (and keep the 2011 Taurus or get rid of it, it does not matter, you have enough income to deal with however you would like. .. and you could even bequeath whatever is left from your 60% to 75% share, upon your death as well. .).
Day Closing Price (2016 ~ 2025)
All-Time-Highs (2016 ~ 2025)
Have fun everyone!
all these bitcoin heatmaps really catch my attention. but since we're talking about bitcoin, i'd definitely like to see more recurring patterns, order, and predictability. i think what happens within a cycle is truly completely random. i've examined the days and months when new all-time highs (aths) were set, along with daily price changes and percentage changes, but they still don't help me make a prediction for the next few weeks or months.
bitcoin is an interesting thing that manages to be both unpredictable and cyclical at the same time.
There are several of us in bitcoin (who participate in this thread) (including but not limited to yours truly) who consider ourselves to be fairly conservative with our money, and so if bitcoin were to be completely unpredictable or a random walk in the park, we would not have had invested into it. Bitcoin is an asymmetric bet in which you can invest as much as you are willing to lose, so then the most that you can lose is 100%, yet the upside is much greater than 100%... so it ends up paying for itself, even if we did not really know where it was going to go.. but it also was not completely unpredictable. it was an asymmetric bet that had a reasonably decent good chance for success.
I am not trying to brag, since I was lucky in regards to when I was able to come across bitcoin and to be in a place in which I was ready, willing and able to enter into such asymmetric bet, aka bitcoin.
Sure others think of bitcoin differently, but there are not too many who would invest and hold for years while consider it as unpredictable.
Why not keep on buying? HODL does not seem to be enough, unless you already reached a large enugh stash? Are you considering that folks (representative normies) have a large enough bitcoin stash?
What are the statistics? How many coins do normies hold?
What about you? You have ONLY been registered here since July 2024. Were you able to accumulate enough coins in that period of time in order to have enough coins to just HODL through these kinds of dippening times?
I am having a hard time imagining very many scenarios in which anyone who had gotten into bitcoin within the past couple of years would have enough bitcoin by now to just HODL from here on out without buying more from time to time. Sure, it is possible, but sounds like a minority scenario to me.
actually,
hodl is a phenomenon that explains why we shouldn't just sell bitcoin. i don't know why we didn't make an acronym that says why we should keep buying. maybe it could have been
bodl. i actually meant that it makes sense to buy when the price of bitcoin drops, seeing it as a discount, but writing hodl at the end made the message a bit confusing.
Maybe it is a bit of a pet peeve of mine (or turning into one?) since in my opinion it takes a long time to build a position, and the buying goes on whether the price is up, down or sideways, which is part of the reason that I recommend that newbie bitcoin accumulators (in their first full cycle) try to buy bitcoin every week (rather than monthly or every two weeks)... I
also, you can hodl even if you only have 1 satoshi. not everyone needs to use bitcoin to retire or pass it on to their children.
Yeah. .but it is better to keep buying, even though surely I understand that people have lmitations in their income, so they might not be able to buy very much, but they could just work on buying something like $10 per week and then perhaps work themselves up to higher amounts, yet even if they are merely buying $10 per week, right now they would be getting nearly 10k satoshis every week for that amount of $10 dollars.
if ownership is what matters here, then i don't need to force myself to buy more to achieve that. maybe it's enough for me to just not sell until i reach the dollar amount i have in mind.
You are not a bitcoin investor then.. you are a trader and a dollar worshiper. You likely do not understand bitcoin very well if you just want to buy bitcoin so that you can get more dollars in the short-term.
still, i keep buying. the amounts might seem excessive to some, too little to others. i think what matters is testing yourself. if i have more bitcoin next month than i do now, that's enough for me. after all, none of us will ever catch up to the strategy, right? race with yourself.
Those ideas are correct. You have to work within your own boundaries.. and it can take a long time to build up a BTC stash size.. and yeah if you are assuring that you have more bitcoin every month (or even every week), even if it is a relatively small amount, then surely 4-10 years or even further down the road you are likely going to have quite a few options (even though it is not guaranteed that you will profit from your having had accumulated bitcoin)..
If it's all about OGs dumping, it should stop at 100k, right?
You need a meme for your post.
right?
right?
Right.
Well, so far so good. Theory holds.
By the way, I don't buy the OG's dumping bullshit.
Sure they might be selling some, but I really doubt that they are selling as much as the various anecdotal proclamations about their supposed selling.
Supposedly there is data to support such theory about OGs supposedly dumping.. yet so far I am not convinced.
[edited out].....
Finally some good posts, much better than those OGs that are angry about the price movement but are too coward to admit it. This feels better. 
@BitHodlers - You'll see some reasonably logical posts along with some far-out bizarre idiotic posts by many of the OGs here. It's truly amazing what some of these OGs post that makes no sense at all. Sometimes I wonder if a lot of these OGs aren't battling serious mental issues...
Butt hurt loves company.
[edited out]
......Better not to call out anyone too much, you may hit another nerve. ......
So uie pooies have an agreement to try to behave ur lil selfies?
Good job!!!!!!!!!!!did i sleep through anything important?
It's been fairly exciting for me.
I cannot really put my finger on it.. but this is not just sleepy-sleep zone.. ..
As always:
Not investment advice
and
YMMV..
and perhaps a few more.. .. we need Toxic Moxic to come back and rattle off a few more of these.
