Bedford law...says that in a series of numbers (like a series of price numbers), you would much more likely to have the price starting with 1 or 2 and much less likely to have a number that starts with 8 or 9.
By this thesis, it is more likely for bitcoin to recover from the current numbers to a number at or above 100K (or alternatively, drop as low as 10-29k-this is just from math perspective, NOT a prediction).
I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.
That's like saying that because of the law of averages, if you just tossed nine heads, your next is likely to be tails. Or that if the last block was ten minutes ago, the next block is imminent.
btctalk ate my long post, darn it.
Of course, we cannot predict what comes next, but my analysis of the last 5 years (Nov 16 2020 to Nov 16 2025) shows that daily prices that started with 1 and 2 were
about 10 times more often than prices that started with 8 or 9 (about 41% vs 4.6%) in a perfect fit to Bedford's law. There were a couple of strange deviations: an abnormally lower number of "7"-only 1.4% (and a bit of a bump in "6").
Here are the numbers (first number on the left, % of daily closings with a price that starts with the number on the left):
1-20.14%
2-20.90
3-13.68
4-14.12
5-8.87
6-12.64 (bump)
7-1.42 (plunge)
8-2.96
9-1.64
I now understand why prognosticators choose numbers like 130, 140, 200 OR 1mil, but rarely 600 or 900K.
It's just more likely, somehow...but it looks like magic at a first glance.
I may analyze the 2015-2025 set later.
EDIT: going forward and then looking back, it seems that this law predicts that in the long time sets with varying prices, there will be more occasions of prices starting with 1 and 2 than 8 and 9. The prices themselves are, of course not predictable by this law.
