Why?

You aren't getting any enjoyment out of watching this bad boy?

I agree that it is more fun watching UP.. and even myself, I am motivated into updating my numbers and my spreadsheet when it is going up as compared when it is going down.  It is more difficult to get motivated to update the down numbers, especially when they are not merely temporary in their duration.


I am surely no Nostradamus in regards to BTC price dynamics - except maybe I ended up to being a bit of a Nostradamus (as much as any other long term HODLer) in regards to largely hedging in terms of ongoing up. 

Yet in terms of the amount of UP that I envisioned, I was both conservative and allowing for high numbers at the same time, so it seems that I am largely doing better than expected, even though I had some inklings that these kinds of prices were possibly within the imagination of best case scenarios  - so even though they don't seem so great while we are going through them, there is something beyond imagination that bitcoin is doing so well, and still likely ONLY adopted in some relatively small ways by around 1% of the world's population. 

So my own inclinations in regards to more UPpity being possible (and reasonable) is also part of the reason that I have largely been accumulating and HODLing for the past 12 years, and ONLY selling relatively small amounts., which is part of the reason that I merely structure both my sells on the way up and my buys on the way down in systematic and incremental ways that serve as hedges rather coming up with expectations that seem quite hard to pinpoint - that way I do not have to think too much about how far the BTC price might go in one direction or another.

You seem to have a better sense of the drop, and I thought that it is quite crazily unlucky that we have this current downward momentum and the news does not even seem to be bad, and I can hardly see how the cycle theory (end of the cycle) could be driving as much DOWNity as it has been driving.. which may well go to show that there tends to be a kind of snowballing effect that can end up taking place when any momentum ends up seeming like it is taking place.. so it can be difficult to say how far it will go and/or when it will reverse or if we get caught up in a 1-2 year long negative channel, as you seem to be suggesting to be our current location.

I will grant you that currently, based on events in the past couple of weeks, I would not enter in the bet that we had already made, yet give us a week or two in the lower $90ks or lower, and I might even start to lose hope in being on the winning side of our bet.. .. for sure those 100k satoshis are getting cheaper and cheaper - not that the amount mattered too much to me, anyhow.. but we still have 4.5 months for both a reversal of our current trend and to potentially get some momentum in the UPpity rather than downity direction.

Regarding when to start buying back... $69k seems a bit low.. but under current market conditions it is looking less and less impossible.  I am still willing to make a risky bet that the price never goes below $69k.. I would have had made it at higher prices previously, but now that we have touched upon $94.5k in the past 5 hours as I type this post, I am getting more reluctant to enter into such bets with the higher prices as the "never to go below" bottom - especially since once we are already down to such current levels, it does not take much additional BIG dumps in order to contribute to contagion in the selling and even the potential mindrusting of a certain number of folks who end up doing the opposite of what they should be doing.

So surely you are in a better position to be thinking about beginning buy back prices as compared to the even less foresightful folks who are considering whether they should sell a bit or not.. . which seems quite ridiculous, even though there are likely a good number of bitcoin holders with those kinds of thoughts in regards to their own BTC portfolio management..

So I don't know?  Why be greedy?  I know you have the tax implications, so yeah maybe your  buy back might start around 30% below your sales amount?  which would start around $84k.. but yeah previously I did not even consider sub $85k to be likely, which I think that in recent times, I had proposed "never below" $85k, $80k, $75k and maybe some other prices in that range.. but I would not be inclined to taking 50/50 bets with those current numbers, even though I would still be willing to take a "never below" $69k bet, just in the spirit of funzies...

So you are likely asking the wrong guy if you think that I am considering below $69k to be a reasonable starting point for buy backs, even though we might have a reason to enter into a funzie chaser bet and you could have the chance of winning twice rather than just once.. hahahahhahaha.. .. Of course, I would have chances of winning twice two.. and there are chances that one could fill and the other not... so ?  No big deal, either way.


It seems to me that "we" are already "doing it" - to the extent that "we" are erroring on the side of buying (accumulating) and/or HODLing our coin.

Sure.  There has been a bit of a blip in our "uppity" road, but that seems to be just part and parcel of the bitcoin process to help to sort through who is "in" and who is "not in."

A lot of sad bitcoin holders right now, especially if they don't know why they are in bitcoin, besides merely thinking about short-term number go up, and they will likely be even more sad if they are selling rather than buying (or alternatively HODLing) their cornz during times like this.

We dropping another shot at 92.5k coming up or down?

For some 70k works.

92.5 buy hodl

88.5 buy hodl

84.5 buy hodl

80.5 buy hodl

77.5 buy hodl

74.5 buy hodl

70.5 buy hodl

All of the above work for me.

70k to 60k maybe buy at 68,66,64,62,60 and hodl.

Spoiler: I don't believe in the bear market.

WTF OOM?!

Yes, i don't believe that this is the start of the bear market. Why?

Because onchain data tells a different story. It tells the story of OG's selling a good amount of their holdings. They sold to ETFs while the demand was high, so the price did not shoot up. Now the demand of ETF holders stagnated, so OGs are selling on exchanges. The sellers have their targets, and when they are fulfilled, the dropping will stop, confidence of newbs (ETF holders) will increase and then the ETFs have to buy more and more coins via exchanges. This would well delay the top into 2026, and there is also a smaller chance of sustained rise, which means "cycles are over", but it is not guaranteed forever, so it's more a foggy, finite "cycles are over, so far"-projection.

#Notafinancialadvice (EDIT: and partly #SOMA)


I spare my words about BTCETFmofo, but i would like to elaborate:
MSTR's stonk value is currently slightly below the value of their holdings.
Everything else is FUD.

Mr. self-so-called-niceguy, please accept that we don't accept the spreading of fake news in these here thread full of stubborn, stupid, lying legendaries.
Of course the seasoned WO'er will spot the irony where it is appearing.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You don't sound confident.

If you were a betting man, then on a 50/50 bet, then which side would you take?

Personally I would have a hard time taking such a bet.. since there are only 6-ish weeks remaining in this calendar year.


Generally speaking you are correct that it is better to buy your cornz on the way down and sell on the way up, yet if a person is just starting out in bitcoin, he likely has to buy at any price, since he is not going to know if the price is going to go up or down

At the same time, once a person accumulates enough coin, then he has more options in regards to how to manage his holdings.

If a guy is still trying to accumulate more coin, it can be problematic to sell during the process that you are accumulating coin, and even more problematic to believe that you will be able to buy back cheaper, when that might not be possible... So there tends to be a need to accumulate coins for a while first before selling any.


It might not be a problem if you are hedging your bets instead of fucking around trying to overly sell too much too soon with an expectation of buying back lower, when that might not happen.  Yet, if you are otherwise managing your holdings by hedging, I don't have any problem with that.

Part of the problem that I see with many of your posts, you tend to present matters as if they were black and white, and as if you were ONLY doing one thing, and then so when someone tries to get specifics out of you then you seem to change your story - when you probably could have been a bit more reasonable in your presentation in the first place rather than having to run correctives.


You find WO OG sentiment interesting because you are just making shit up.

WO OG sentiment is not much different than regular bitcoin holder sentiment.

You are reading too much into a situation if you are trying to proclaim that there is something more emotional and/or more panicking about the OGs in these here parts in regards to their (our) bitcoin holdings, you are just projecting some kind of a ongoing disgruntled status spin rather than serving as some kind of a neutral outside observer.


Bitcoin is not guaranteed to bounce back... but yeah, OG's here continue to be invested in bitcoin.

I have not seen any OG's mindrust yet, even though from time to time, we will see some variation of a mindrust incident, even though I suspect that many members are not going to be as open about their panick and their bad reasons as mindrust was back in March 2020.


You are too disgruntled to be credible, and also you have shown yourself as a liar, as someone who gets quite emotional and as a member who deletes his earlier posts.   Those are not characteristics that help you in your credibility.. .. even if you have been at least presenting your ideas more regularly - yet frequently still getting caught with the presentation of bad information, such as your providing links to articles without knowing basic facts in regards to the substantive assertions of such articles.


Too early to call it with any high degree of confidence, and likely not feeling as confident in recent times, yet surely sometimes bitcoin goes through some difficult to tolerate corrections... and yeah, sometimes it will take time to recover from such corrections, if a recovery might be in the cards.. perhaps?

In the recovery scenario, there are a variety of options.

one option is that the price recovers fairly quickly and we are back to testing ATH prices within a few weeks.

Another option is that recovery takes a few months and drags into 2026, which could still allow me to win the bet.

another option is that recovery drags out but we do not get an all time high until after April 1, 2026, which means I would lose the bet even though recovery ended up largely NOT causing any major damage besides shaking out some of the folks who were overly tied to  (and bet on) bitcoin being on a schedule in which they concluded that it had to peak in this calendar year.

Those would likely be the main recovery scenarios.. Of course, there are other scenarios, besides recovery scenarios.


I largely quoted your whole post based on your inclination to delete posts (otherwise I did not really consider it to be worth showing all of it), and also to show your seeming ongoing desire to argue for the mere sake of it.

Even though MSTR has maintained a business outside of its bitcoin holdings, I suspect that the various bitcoin-related products has dwarf its other business operations, but yeah some number goes in there for the non-bitcoin portion of its business and it seems to me that even Saylor said that MSTR's involvement in bitcoin has helped to breath life into other parts of its business because of MSTR has gotten a lot of attention based on its involvement in bitcoin.. yet the other aspect of its business still likely constitutes quite a minor part of what they are doing and how they are bringing in money and/or allocating their time, energy and money.


You likely are ongoingly making the same mistake, since you are waiting for dips that might not come rather than buying bitcoin regularly.

You have been registered on the forum since November 2016 (congratulation to 9 years on the forum), so if you had just stopped fucking around trying to figure out dips or not and then just bought regularly and consistently, then merely buying $50 per week would have had resulted in around $23.5 k invested and around 3.2 BTC.. which truly would be a good place to be right now.

Buy dips that might not come does not tend to be a good strategy, especially for anyone who considers themselves to be either a no coiner or a low coiner who is trying to accumulate more coins.

In essence, the better resolution in bitcoin has tended to be ongoing actions to buy rather than fucking around waiting for dips that may or may not come.


In this case (if any), you might not be a good role model Philip.

Sure, your buying on the dip is currently working for you, but guys who are fucking around waiting, they are likely going to be better off by just ongoingly buying rather than making similar mistakes as you in regards to not ongoingly buying. 

In the end, guys can do whatever they like, even dumb shit... Maybe they will get lucky, and maybe not.  I, personally, consider waiting to be a bad strategy in regards to accumulating bitcoin especially for either a no coiner or a low coiner, and many times even low coiners, do not even recognize and appreciate themselves as a low coiner, so they spend way too much time waiting and not enough time acting (meaning buying).

I dca mine every fucking day.  right now about 0.000933  btc every day. for the entire year maybe 0.18 btc maybe as much as 0.2btc

I dip buy some days. last 2-3 days about 0.018 btc

for the entire year maybe 0.12 btc via dips.

so .3 and I sold under 0.05 of it. so I gained 0.25 btc

Maybe it is some random, chaotic market.
Certainly, it used to be that btc movement "controlled" other coins, but not anymore..there are notable persistent exceptions.

I am just hanging out and observing, ignoring the 'paper losses' so far and looking at the prices once or twice a day only.

When there is a lot of money around, creating exceptions is quite easy. It is meaningless.. More money, more scammers, more manipulation but the same old tactics.

The crazy part about today’s losses are that Strategy is currently buying with $700+ million dollars raised from the STRE offering. Saylor confirmed this during an interview this morning. It looks a lot like this market and Strategy are cooked. I don’t see how Saylor doesn’t get sued by his shareholders for all his preferred offerings at this point. Hopefully he has some of that $700+ million earmarked for a weekend pump…