1h MACD suggests a correction similar to the one on the 10th is imminent, since market is overbought again.
For the bottom probably around 370$. If lower than that, it would be bearish.

Indeed, I share your (and luc's) sentiment. I refer back to this chart;

So far, we've had a nice bounce off the lower trendline and are heading towards resistance. This is a very large wedge, encompassing the entirety of the post-bubble downtrend, and I feel that a break and validation of the pattern may just provide enough momentum to in turn leave this bear market once and for all.



However we may, as you mention, see a self-similar bear cycle repeat. This scenario would also fit with us breaking the wedge since, as one can see in the below zoomed in chart, the April bottom and subsequent May rise was also marked by divergence + wedge breakout



Thus, in my mind the likeliest way such a scenario will play out is by the formation of yet another, larger fractal wedge (and divergence?)



But of course the problem with patterns of self-similarity is that they're only self-similar until they aren't Either way, this is all long-term speculation, and there'll be plenty of sub-waves to trade until then. In other words; we will cross that bridge when we get to it!

(sorry for wall of charts )

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?  This is an interesting trifecta of bullishness - Luc/Oda/Tzupy

My head is spinning.

I love fractal patterns. So powerful!

I'm quite confident the V-shaped bottom on October 6th marked a trend reversal.

On fundamentals: I see an uptik in individual influencial investors and even politicians talking their btc-books. Only a matter of time until XBT is mentioned in popular newsletters. It'll work. At some point when price keeps rising the sheep will flock in panicked by price-driven media attention. The short chickens come home to roost in a frenzy... fuel for the rocket.

Stocks feel bad, gold bounces, xbt bounces.

Gold prices are getting very close to production prices. There isnt any room to go down. They will just shut mines down and creat demand.

very interesting insight! So if this correlation holds, we should expect some kind of bounce short term, then additional weakness medium term (since it seems dxy is expected to go higher and gold lower in the following months) and thereafter, when hopefully the dollar collapses for good, the final, epic trip to the moon 

by the way a big thank you for one of the most valuable analysis threads out there.

Economy will survive somehow nevertheless.
Who is "out of reality" : world's rulers.
Heavily on cocaine and in rainbow dreams of achieved Recovery.
Their future is bleak.