There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

Agree. EW is just method, which work fine on paper, but reallity is completely different.

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".

That's something that simply didn't even cross my mind at the time.

EW is fantastic as a tool at sharpening your intuition and making you consider all (or almost all) possible future market pictures, bullish, bearish, and in between.

People who dismiss EW as useless because "10 different people get 10 different counts" simply never realized that in order to successfully weigh all possible future outcomes by likelihood (i.e. making a prediction), you first have to consider all possible outcomes. And that's where the EW counts come in.

So does anyone want to provide a long term E-Wave count for Bitcoin from the beginning of Bitcoin's trading history?

I haven't made one recently, but this is one I made during the correction of the April bubble last year using Gox data


It is slightly different now, but it has the "historical" [ I ]/[ II ] count. According to this, the April high was [III], but I later changed that. I might be able to get something with the more recent data tomorrow or something

When do you predict this will happen?

Since we seem to be playing 'Predict the mid term outlook', here's my contest entry... roadmap of the next month(s), roughly along the daily MA20/50/200.

Don't get too hung up about the exact extension of the SMAs I drew in, they're naturally imprecise, and just serve to illustrate the big picture of support and resistances.

Similar for the time frame. I put the "SMA200 decision point" probably too far into the future. More likely actually we'll get there towards the end of 2014/January 2015 than March 2015 where it's in my graph - I just needed the space to draw in the trend outlines I see as possible, maybe likely.



What's the take home message I'm trying to describe here?

1) Mainly based on volume during the $275 capitulation, and volume/price action since then, I expect to see a test of SMA200 before making a new low. In other words: (a) we're going up significantly before (b) we're going down significantly. My odds for (a) vs (b): ~ 2:1.

2) There are two ways to get to SMA200: (a) the slow, painful route (full of retests of the slower MA50), and (b) the faster one, where we're (mainly) staying above MA20. My odds for (a) vs. (b): ~ 3:2.

3) Once we get to SMA200, two ways to decide if we break into a "real" rally: (a) with a substantial price drop, likely aiming for MA50 again, or (b) without it. Odds (a) vs. (b): (depends on the way we get there, but under my current assumptions): ~ 2:1

4) We'll break and stay above MA200 (a), or we're falling back below (b) (possibly towards a new, sub 275 low). Odds: No idea right now. Heavily depends on volume/price action on the way there, and once we get there.

tl;dr I expect MA200 test, mid term, but it'll be a rocky road to get there.

We had an upward channel in April/May as well...until we didn't. 

Haha, no... master = masterluc = lucif = 80% of the time it pays off to pay attention to the guy