please explain in numbers what is "too big Kelly Criterion"? there are KC numbers which will ruin the casino as RHavar explained very well

I think the way that makes most sense for me, is that the house needs to sort of assume a whale has infinite money. Like if you imagine dragonmaster2's "100% risk" scenario, it's just a matter of time before the infinite angry whale is guaranteed his win.

But if you invert the scenario, it doesn't really make sense to assume you can be a gambler with an infinite bankroll. And with any finite bankroll, all you can achieve is having a very large chance of busting the house -- but you can never turn that into a "profitable" scenario.


So when the house is risking more than a 2x kelly, you have a sort of weird scenario where it's bad for the house (it'll probably go broke) but also bad for the player (it'll still have an expectation to lose)

A user confirmed the same thing but decided to delete it.  Probably because you're abusing your trust and insulting people to try and discredit them.

Red trust hurts everyone.  RHavar and others are using it to try and discredit me but also show a deterrent to anyone else that might speak out about their Bustabit scam.

RHavar confirmed 2x kelly here:

At 2x kelly, an investor simply has 0 bankroll growth. That isn't inherently bad or anything (consider that it is still massively +EV), and the risks were well published. It's also worth noting that even when the whale was playing (with multiple accounts) it seemed most of the time he cashed out before the "forced cash out". Which means those bets were all < 2x kelly.

So the reality is, investors were exposed to exactly what was promised: a lot of variance, a lot of EV and a lot of expected bankroll growth (even if there was an occasional bet that didn't improve it).

I think the ideal would be that every investor can pick their own max kelly (e.g. 0.5x, 1x or 2x) and the max-profit becomes a reflection of that. For me personally as an investor, I would rather high risk (e.g. max of 2x kelly) because for me the greatest risk is simply the counter-party risk (you basically send someone your coins, and hope they're honest with them) but I've talked to some other investors who have said they would prefer a 0.5x kelly as they find the swings disconcerting.

In the end though, everyone needs to look at the risks and decide if it's something they want to partake in. But honestly, this whole discussion is a waste of time: bustabit did exactly what was promised and investor are now sitting on $3.1 million dollars in profit (which they are free to withdraw at any time) after merely weeks.  My understanding from talking to some of the larger investors is that everyone is very happy with the way it is being operated (although there admittedly were some grumblings about the commissions back when the site was deep in the red).

--

Also to clarify, I am strictly speaking as just a normal user/investor -- I do not have an ongoing role in bustabit. I am just trying to clarify the nonsense being posted. Do not take anything I say as an official statement or position

A user confirmed the same thing but decided to delete it.  Probably because you're abusing your trust and insulting people to try and discredit them.

The "no expected bankroll growth" refers to the worst case (2x) and for a specific game (when the whale(s?) were aiming at the forced cashout point). In general, all investors have only been exposed to +EV and expected bankroll growth.

And devans commission seems very well deserved, his job is to run the site and bring in volume. He has been doing a good job of that. And even though his investors are up >3M dollars in a few short weeks, how lucky or unlucky players are, is out of his control. It's not unreasonable to charge a fixed volume-based commission, especially considering investors are expected to earn 75% of the site's profit. But if you disagree with the model, that's fine, you shouldn't invest.

Yeah, I meant to write "and positive expected bankroll growth" but forgot the word "positive". If you take a bunch of bets with +EV and +EBG  and add another bet with +EV and 0EBG .. the result is still +EV and +EBG. But then I realized, I shouldn't even feed the troll.


Yes, so you've said. How about you open a scam accusation against me in the proper forum, and I'm happy to defend anything I've said or done without derailing this thread.