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    Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 118305 times)
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    • rpietila (OP)
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    October 31, 2013, 12:46:27 PM
    Last edit: July 11, 2014, 07:36:34 PM by rpietila
     #1
    NEW:

    Trendline update, including analysis in my latest post.

    Calculate today's trendline price HERE




    R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p.
    [chart courtesy to tonico/minimalB]

    This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

    200920102011201220132014
    Jan.005.005.396.1116.31818
    Feb.005.005.905.0625.93659
    Mar.005.005.854.8858.14594
    Apr.005.0051.504.98115.09461
    May.005.0056.385.06112.81486
    Jun.005.00818.556.03108.39
    Jul.005.06014.108.0483.80
    Aug.005.0659.7510.88105.80
    Sep.005.0625.7611.46124.33
    Oct.005.1063.3011.58156.50
    Nov.005.272.6011.51517.00
    Dec.005.243.5113.33799.00

    1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
    6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox.
    7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
    6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.
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    October 31, 2013, 02:58:49 PM
     #2
    Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is:

    -2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009).

    - Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010.
    - Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70.
    - Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013.
    - The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is.
    - Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382.

    More long-term targets:
    - $1000: May 2014
    - $10,000: April 2015
    - $300,000: August 2016.
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    October 31, 2013, 03:08:32 PM
     #3
    This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

    Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

    In this model, the average growth rate is:
    per hour: 0.029%
    per day: 0.69%
    per week: 5.0%
    per month: 23%
    per year: 1140% (12.4x)
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  • molecular
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    October 31, 2013, 03:23:48 PM
     #4
    Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 02:58:49 PM
    Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is:

    -2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009).

    - Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010.
    - Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70.
    - Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013.
    - The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is.
    - Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382.

    More long-term targets:
    - $1000: May 2014
    - $10,000: April 2015
    - $300,000: August 2016.

    sounds about right. cool stuff, rpietila!
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    October 31, 2013, 03:33:03 PM
     #5
    To anyone, if we could get a graph over actual prices, and then an extension of the regression line past where we are today into say, 2014, I'd greatly appreciate that Smiley

  • el_rlee
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    October 31, 2013, 03:36:54 PM
     #6
    Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 03:08:32 PM
    You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

    Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

  • rpietila (OP)
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    October 31, 2013, 03:49:35 PM
     #7
    Quote from: el_rlee on October 31, 2013, 03:36:54 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 03:08:32 PM
    You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

    Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

    Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate.. Smiley

    Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

    The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU)
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    October 31, 2013, 06:01:38 PM
     #8
    Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 03:49:35 PM
    Quote from: el_rlee on October 31, 2013, 03:36:54 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 03:08:32 PM
    You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

    Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

    Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate.. Smiley

    Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

    The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU)

    I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs Smiley  They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.

    Scan the QR and you will see what I mean.

    And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.
    Agora Commodities and Bitgild.com have them for sale.
    Change the QTY to 5000 and you will see the price per piece drop down to where you might like it, as the premium will adjust with the quantity.
    At 10K pieces, even better.
    The folks on eBay are paying US$30-50 each, but I don't know why.
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    October 31, 2013, 08:50:13 PM
     #9
    Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 03:08:32 PM
    This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

    Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

    In this model, the average growth rate is:
    per hour: 0.029%
    per day: 0.69%
    per week: 5.0%
    per month: 23%
    per year: 1140% (12.4x)

    Thanks for the numbers. Is always great to do summary sometimes.

    I still think at some point this growing ratio will drop to lower numbers, I think it can't sostain after big investors join the boat in 1-2 years.

  • molecular
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    October 31, 2013, 09:37:33 PM
     #10
    Quote from: NewLiberty on October 31, 2013, 06:01:38 PM
    I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs Smiley  They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.

    And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.

    I'm so proud I have 3 of these Wink

    Quote from: NewLiberty on October 31, 2013, 06:01:38 PM
    The folks on eBay are paying US$30-50 each, but I don't know why.

    About that: people on ebay are quite insane. One of them payed us €600 for a miner that probably wont ever mine as much as 1 BTC.
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    November 01, 2013, 01:10:08 AM
     #11
    Quote from: molecular on October 31, 2013, 09:37:33 PM

    I'm so proud I have 3 of these Wink


    I like to spend them whenever I have time for a conversation about bitcoin, but then it is pretty easy for me to get more as I don't pay much for shipping.  Wink
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    November 01, 2013, 08:53:28 AM
     #12
    Quote from: porcupine87 on November 01, 2013, 02:02:13 AM
    Quote
    More long-term targets:
    - $1000: May 2014
    - $10,000: April 2015
    - $300,000: August 2016.

    Yeah and applying that logic for Microsoft share beginning since ther IPO and ending in the year 1998 oder 2001 one share costs now 100 gazillions  Roll Eyes

    We're at the beginning of the S adoption curve so these predictions aren't completely unreasonable. Of course at some point the growth will level off.

  • rpietila (OP)
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    November 01, 2013, 12:09:28 PM
     #13
    In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

    When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

    It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.
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  • molecular
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    November 01, 2013, 05:20:51 PM
     #14
    Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 12:09:28 PM
    In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

    When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

    It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

    It's still at least a 1500-bagger Wink
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  • rpietila (OP)
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    November 01, 2013, 06:15:41 PM
     #15
    Quote from: molecular on November 01, 2013, 05:20:51 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 12:09:28 PM
    In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

    When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

    It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

    It's still at least a 1500-bagger Wink


    Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...  Grin
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  • molecular
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    November 01, 2013, 10:00:19 PM
     #16
    Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 06:15:41 PM
    Quote from: molecular on November 01, 2013, 05:20:51 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 12:09:28 PM
    In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

    When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

    It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

    It's still at least a 1500-bagger Wink


    Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...  Grin

    Hehe, and people on reddit call each other insane for predicting $1000 by 2014. lol. Some clearly haven't grasped the enormity of what is hitting them yet.
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  • Carlton Banks
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    November 01, 2013, 10:26:48 PM
     #17
    Quote from: molecular on November 01, 2013, 10:00:19 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 06:15:41 PM
    Quote from: molecular on November 01, 2013, 05:20:51 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 12:09:28 PM
    In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

    When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

    It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

    It's still at least a 1500-bagger Wink


    Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...  Grin

    Hehe, and people on reddit call each other insane for predicting $1000 by 2014. lol. Some clearly haven't grasped the enormity of what is hitting them yet.

    Meh, it's a little disheartening to hear people think that way. They're clearly thinking along the lines of "That means my 50 BTC will be $50,000! No. Way!". But all that's saying to me is how overvalued $50,000 is to them, not how crazily Bitcoin is appreciating. Reminds me of being a kid visiting Italy, 1,000,000 lira was the equivalent of about $50. I've always understood since being that young that a million of anything makes you ask the question, "yeah, but a million of what, exactly?".
    Vires in numeris

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    November 02, 2013, 05:31:59 AM
     #18
    Sigh, there was so much time to buy cheap coins.

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    November 02, 2013, 06:06:53 AM
     #19
    Quote from: Jabbatheslutt on November 02, 2013, 05:31:59 AM
    Sigh, there was so much time to buy cheap coins.

    still is*

  • rpietila (OP)
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    November 02, 2013, 07:30:30 AM
     #20
    Quote from: vokain on October 31, 2013, 03:33:03 PM
    To anyone, if we could get a graph over actual prices, and then an extension of the regression line past where we are today into say, 2014, I'd greatly appreciate that Smiley

    Somebody with more skills, please!! Smiley
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