Holy shit. That blows my mind - just the numbers involved and the speed with which it can happen - and it also shows how BTC has so many unique and unpredictable aspects vs. any "traditional" tech innovation/adoption/value cycle - even compared to another disruptive game-changer. 

I remembered that you understood math at one time. Surely then you understand that not even 1% of the masses can ever buy Bitcoin and the dystopian outcome is assured.

Speculation fever manipulation (instead of rational speculation where you don't talk at all) is all you will ever be good at my friend? You will destroy the world.

And you have accomplished nothing to actually help.

May the force be with you, you are going to need it.

Doesn't that mean that $300,000 is VERY unlikely, even under the best of circumstances?

Interestingly, the value by the end of 2014 will more accurately tell us the peak.

Where is your argument for this conclusion? I followed your links and just found more proclamations and hyperbole. I'd like to see your analysis.

Yes, maybe so. His views are certainly paranoid and extreme  - I definitely don't want to live in his reality. But he seems to have done some very strong thinking on real threats and weaknesses of bitcoin.

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..



red - assume a $5,000,000 maximum bitcoin price when fully adopted by financial speculators
orange - $1,000,000
green - $100,000
blue - $40,000

I also re-fit each case to more accurately pass through the final price history data point. It is clear now that the exponential portion of the logistic curve, i.e. the straight line on the log chart, does not predict the maximum price. Here are the corresponding price targets summarized ...



The key result of this analysis is that we should not expect the current exponential growth of bitcoin prices to last more than 36-48 months - even under the most bullish imaginable scenario. Buy sooner rather than later is my obvious conclusion.

The shared spreadsheet containing commentary, calculations and charts can be viewed, or copy/edited, at ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc

My logistic analysis is akin to your own log regression analysis. It does not say much about the bubble fluctuations that we have seen in the past and expect in the future. Rather it suggests some average trends.

And could not agree more with your timing advice.

Remember the larger your capital is, the less effectively you can invest it to good. This is just a fact that smaller things grow faster. Find the math in the links of my prior post.

More knowledge nearly always produces more good than more money. Money is just a claim on future labor, but the claim is only as valuable as your knowledge to deploy it.

This is why money eventually growing wings and flys away. It must be that way, else life stops advancing and dies. The wise return it back to society so it can be employed effectively sooner.


Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.

The key takeaway in my mind is the incentive for a strong altcoin is now unfathomably rich. It is unthinkable that an altcoin won't appear soon that significantly challenges Bitcoin. Luckily you will get some warning of that and time to evaluate.

If I were investing in BTC, I would be holding and buying as much as could on a regular basis and especially increasing purchases on significant dips. I am not investing in BTC because I think it is insane from a tax perspective when the G20 is planning to confiscate everything and there is not reliable anonymity in (nor that can be layered on top of) BTC (when considering the threat of jail time and targeting by the socialism as a "wealthy speculator" who caused the entire crisis). The anonymity we can layer on top of Bitcoin is maybe reliable 95% of the time if we are really careful (which most of you have no clue on), but 5% is just too risky considering the threat.

Gold fever tends to make people blind to the threats.

And I don't trust they won't clawback and raise taxes retroactively to past years! Governments do very crazy things when they implode.

It is a very dangerous time to have wealth.

And with the freedom my wealth will afford me,  I can help build a better world where wealth is irrelevant.

First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.

Second, my post is about using a logistic function to model bitcoin prices. Perhaps your reasoning is shallow, e.g. drawing wrong conclusions at a glance. There is an excellent Wikipedia article that explains what a logistic function is - and explains its many uses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Seriously, if you do not understand the math I would be glad to teach it to you.