Respectfully request June update.

Bumping this awesome thread.

That was written in Oct-13. If you don't recall, $1k was reached in the following month. Reaching $10k by Apr-15 is nothing, and the only reason that I don't bet with people for the outcome, is that simple investing in bitcoins gives me much better odds 

The 300k target is unrealistic expectation.

unrealistic?



It sure isn't incompatible with current facts.

By that definition, we'll only know wether it has been a realistic expectation after the fact.

You probably meant to say: "that 300k target is improbable from my point of view"?

I (would like) someone to start an E-Prime thread.

Great video:
Bitcoin 101 - Modelling the Price of Bitcoin - Is a $100,000 bitcoin possible?
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g2nXgK34HIM

Check out the online price predictor, with adjustable variables - it helps to understand these "crazy" price predictions.

I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin

The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days

R^2 = 0.934183

The trendline is at $1583.

At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.

For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.


The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.

This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.

I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:


TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.

Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.

Actually the longest duration ever for being down on your investment, provided that it was bought at -0.4 or lower, is 61 days (starting from the same day as above, calculated so that from 62nd day on, price has never been below the original purchase price).

Would you buy if you are guaranteed to have positive return for every holding period in excess of 2 months?  

I can imagine. Good for you

But what if the Winklevoss ETF opens before then or something else that triggers a huge run?  We could see this sooner, or even a higher amount depending on other circumstances couldn't we?

Regardless, $7000 by September is nothing to cry about.