1. Global indices will create native platforms and migrate stocks to blockchain, this means that top 1% of wealth will remain centralized and not benefit decentralized crypto space
2. BTC was not designed like an index platform, it is a stand alone with XCP built separately, and it is painfully slow because of BTC txs limitation
3. Lightning network is centralized, banks have hedged top 5 but now it seems as global indexes will create native platforms anyway, elite is playing both fields btc is/was a hedge in case of power loss
4. Energy waste of BTC, ten years later on and it is a negative key point with this old invention
5. Index coins can share 10% of 20 trillion economy by market capture in privatized decentralized space. Anticipate 10 or so index platforms like stellar, waves, nexus that can process high velocity txs and scale adequately to match centralized visa space. This is around quarter trillion per brand/coin, BTC is not included because no one can issue tokens on its chain except through XCP and it is literally decades behind in tech and cannot possibly compete with dedicated platforms.
6. Be careful when following BTC down and do not fool yourself into presuming $5k to be "cheap" because there is no guarantee at all that BTC will ever again go above a few hundred dollars. Its market cap is x10 from top 5 and I consider top 5 overvalued exclusive of BTC. ETH cannot scale and sharding sounds like an esoteric super high tech plan but in truth there are thousands of Proof of stake coins already, so ETH is way behind the game in that field. Fair value below 1 billion.
7. There may be a flip event in 2020, paid for by top 5 and it's $200bn (90% of crypto space) bubble pool. Financing the future by internal capital reallocation and onramping of small business that doesn't have a place on NASDAQ and global indices. Crypto merchant payment gateways and partnerships. Atomic swaps and auto exchangers, no need btc.
8. Growth can still be parabolic because Market cap excluding top 5 is $20 bn and expected capture is up to $2tn within 3 years. Pick the winner and it's some x10 000 in there.

Cryptos like Waves (Russian controlled) ,Stellar (Western contribution) and Nexus (still early stage) can capture 10%/2 trillion of the retail economy within 3 years, it's $250bn per brand if ten brands share equal distribution.

After merchant onramping and digitization of money there will be more sophisticated computing on blockchain when entering AGI phase. Programmable currency is the infrastructure and enabler of K1+ civilization/Singularity/world brain. When computing projections by Kurzweil and Carl Sagan are this easily integrated with economic output, the contrast between 2020 and 2040 is on a factor of hundreds comparable in effect to pre and post industrialization. This technological infrastructure combined with autonomous machines can increase global GDP from $100 trillion to tens or hundreds of quadrillion in a few years time span which is a growth rate not witnessed before in history of humanity. The most likely candidates to launch AGI software is IBM, Darpa, Boston Dynamics, Google, Ivy League universities, so for an investor it is not something that will erupt from nowhere and can be invested into in the present in some obscure crypto and expect parabolic returns. Crypto will mature as a retail and commerce technology for the next ten years, global market cap may increase to a few trillion but there is no indication that decentralized space have the intellectual capacity to bridge AGI powered blockchain where real disruption awaits. Because this is on a level similar to Manhattan project in 1940s.

Hyperbitcoinization charts are tracking parabolic economic growth like a shadow in the present because the pattern is visible and is wrongly attributed to a rise of Bitcoin to $1 million or even more. For an investor to capture value it requires early action and holistic data analysis which in this case was gathered from silicon valley futurism and integrated with parabolic crypto patterns. It is then a case of identifying where disruption will stem from: who, why, how, what, when.

VISA processed 32 billion transactions per quarter this is 4000 per second, its market cap is $400 billion on P/E 40.

If 10 crypto index platforms capture 10% of visa capacity in the next 3 years this is 400 tx/s and 40 tx/s for waves or 3.5 million daily txs. Market cap equivalent is $4 billion.

NASDAQ daily volume is $100 billion, it's $1 billion for waves on same capture rate of 10% divided on 10 crypto index platforms. NASDAQ daily txs is 12 million and that's 120k for Waves.

If every transaction on waves cost 80 cents the calculation is like this:

$100k profit per day
$3 million per month
$36 million yearly times 40 P/E

Market cap: $1.4 bilion/$14 per coin.

Additional valuation factors:

1. There aren't 10 crypto index platforms in existence, and Waves is already second in rank below stellar which is valued at $7 billion.
2. Waves market capture can be higher than 10% perhaps closer to 25% global
3. the 10% capture rate of global commerce is conservative, it can be 25%
4. Trading fees on waves is still insignificant, inorder to grow market cap from profit to stakers and company, fees must be increased to 80 cents per exchange trade, this will force higher volume per tx

Optimistic recalculation:

25% of VISA txs is 1000 per second (max capacity of waves)
25% market share of this 1000 is 250 per second on waves platform
With similar fee structure as VISA this is $25 billion market cap, Waves should consider crypto credit and loans with smart contract escrow service

25% NASDAQ capture is $25 billion daily volume and 1/4th for Waves $6 billion/750k daily txs ($8000 volume per transaction).

On VISA volume it is $1.2 billion per hour $30 billion daily with 900 000 transactions per hour it's $1300 per tx.

If trading fee is increased to 80 cents per tx the 6 waves per block inflation can be backed by actual profit and not just air like it is now...

VISA market cap is 1/20 of yearly volume 5%
Waves market cap on 10/10 merchant capture is $5.5bn ($55 per coin x75 multiplier from $0.72 valuation)
25/25 is $35bn ($350 per coin x500 multi)

There is no technical barrier to prevent this capture all that is needed is:

1. Merchant onramping by private invitationals and explaining that this is like decentralized stock trading platform with branded stocks for small business
2. Leverage and crypto lending integration using smart contract escrow without moving funds from wallet
3. Increasing transaction fee to 80 cents which is competitive rate compared to stock platforms and leverage firms
4. Partner with merchants and crypto payment gateways using phone app integration (no plastic cards needed)

Market cap at full maturity (5-10 years) is $250 billion ($2500 per coin) or 25% of total global commerce ($20trn) divided by 20. This is P/E 10 on $25bn annual profit (85m daily txs x$0.8 ). It is also max capacity of waves 1000tx/s.