Yes, I’m a pleb, But you know what I wouldn’t appreciate selling my bitcoin because I feel there is a profit right now probably I’ve made some profits, well I’m not profit Oriented, I’m more acquainted in accumulating more bitcoin and hodl, and I will not be appreciating selling my bitcoin in the near future because the most important thing for me now is not to sell instead to hodl and stack up more bitcoin just as you’ve said I wouldn’t be giving anyone an advantage of what you talk about, considering that I’m in my accumulation stage.

I agree with you, there are some people who are still selling Bitcoin, they are walking in the dark. We should hold Bitcoin thinking about the future, not the present. Let's think a little about the history of Bitcoin. After Bitcoin was created, people could earn Bitcoin by playing games or through data entry and advertising on social media. In the present, the past days are just a fantasy and not a reality. they earned Bitcoin very easily, but they did not evaluate or save Bitcoin thinking about the future, so their wallets are empty. If they had saved it thinking about the future, then think about where they would be now. It is not right to sell Bitcoin by looking at the current price, where large and medium investors are buying more and more Bitcoin and holding it thinking about the future. It cannot be the work of a wise person to sell without thinking about the future. From my point of view when you think about what Bitcoin's price was in the past, where it stands now, and how much it will increase in the future, it seems unlikely that anyone would sell Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a digital asset that we all need to HODL.

Investors who has been accumulating Bitcoin since 2016 or below can still sell out little of Bitcoin holding if need be because they have been accumulating and holding bitcoin for a long time it's not wrong if they won't to see small of their Bitcoin while those who hasn't gone far with their Bitcoin accumulation shouldn't even think of selling or wait for the value to increase before they can sell no since such people are still in their early stage they should concentrate more buying even if the price of Bitcoin keep adding values until they have gotten enough Bitcoin portfolio or has been accumulating and holding for a period of 4-10 years and, the DCA strategy is there to help accumulate Bitcoin gradually regardless of bitcoin price and hodl.

It is not only gold that requires security. Security is also required in Bitcoin wallets. Hackers can also remove your Bitcoin assets from your wallet. If you do not use some complex password in a secure wallet, then there is a possibility of risk in your invested Bitcoin. One of the world's investment places is Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency. Even ordinary wallet users in Bitcoin always protect their assets with complex passwords. And many lose their investments by becoming victims of hacking.

Gold is an asset from which people benefit immediately, but the risk is high. It is okay to carry gold, but no security is required to carry Bitcoin. However, you have to keep your eyes and ears open to keep your investment safe. I think investing in Bitcoin from gold is easy and convenient.

This is a clear example of what it means to have the will to buy on every dip. This article talks about how many people take Advantage and buy on the dip, even aggressively , You can see the desire to be rich and have a great Future.





Cointelegraph:https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-fomo-back-bitcoin-first-timers-buy-140k-btc-in-2-weeks


If the rich buy, we must buy, that is the best example.

If an investor only buys at the dip or always wait for the dip before they begin their accumulation, it becomes very hard for them to gather a significant of bitcoin in their holdings and will miss out on a possible profitable investment they’re suppose to be part of earlier but delayed just because they were only waiting for the dip to buy only. The best approach to this should be buying at every given opportunity to add to your holdings (the DCA strategy) while also having a reserve funds meant to buy at every dip in the market. If this method is approached diligently, you’ll not miss any opportunity to add more bitcoin to your holdings and you’ll be investing at max volume which is very important as a bitcoiner looking to benefits big from the market.

DCA protects you because you are not able to know the BTC price in the future.  For sure, if you know that the BTC price is going down, then it is better to wait and buy the dip, yet the overwhelming majority of the time, you don't know that the BTC price is going down, even when it seems that all signs are that the BTC price might go down, it ends up going up.

DCA does not protect you from down.. even though perhaps if you are buying all of the time (such as every week), there will be times when the BTC price is up and other times in which the BTC price is down, but you cannot really know in advance, so then your BTC price ends up being largely an average of the whole time that you had been buying, and if you are trying to time the downs, then you may or may not have success to have a lower price per BTC... yet it seems that even if each of us would like a lower price per BTC, there is almost no way that we we can accomplish the keeping of our average cost per BTC low if we are also wanting to keep buying bitcoin and growing our bitcoin stash... which in some sense it seems that it should be a higher goal to grow our BTC stash.

I have given quite a few realistic examples in the past to show that one guy had spent half or even 1/3 or even a fraction as much as another guy (and he even had a lower cost per BTC), yet the guy who had spent more money may have had 20% or 30% more BTC, but had double or even triple the cost, yet since bitcoin has historically performed so well, it would have had been way better to be the guy who had accumulated more bitcoin as compared to the guy who had a lower cost per BTC.

Do we need to go through such examples again?  I am not opposed to going through such examples, especially if it will help guys to attempt to understand the various dynamics, yet it seems once of the better ways for guys to understand the dynamics is to figure out their own examples and even if they are living through their experiences.. . Guys who are trying to accumulate bitcoin every single week likely know that every single week they have to decide if to invest all of their available BTC purchasing money in DCAing into bitcoin or if they are going to hold some back for either buying on the dip or for some passage of time, and there are trade-offs since guys are never going to know whether the BTC price is going to go down or not..and many times, especially during a bull market is that the BTC price is going to go up, but even the presumption could be wrong.. which the same is true during a bear market, there maybe be a presumption that the BTC price is going to go down, yet the presumption could end up being wrong... So each guy has to decide each week, an there is a question regarding the extent to which it is valuable to hold back backing or to defer buying based on conjecture that there could be a dip that might not end up happening.


I doubt that financial management is a downside of DCA, since you need good financial management no matter how you invest. DCA allows you to adjust, and yeah, if you are DCAing too much, then you might be spending beyond your discretionary income, and so you could DCA whimpily  and have lesser chances of overdoing it... yet you are still not describing a disadvantage of DCA, but instead a disadvantage the you (and perhaps others) might end up buying BTC with money that they want to use for other things, and so surely the more that any of us chooses to put into BTC, then the more likely that we are going to suffer in other ways in the current times, because that money ends up getting locked up into bitcoin and perhaps might not be available for 4-10 years or longer.. which has some costs, especially for guys who choose to invest in bitcoin aggressively.  They end up not having discretionary money to enjoy their life (consume) in the present.. .Their pleasure is deferred, which is not easy and is a problem with any investing, not just DCA.


Of course, I am sorry for your losses that may even go beyond your having had waited to buy bitcoin, yet at the same time, I was not really criticizing you for fucking up in the past, but instead criticizing you for proclaiming that waiting and buying on dips is the best way, which you continue to make similar mistakes  in that direction and either explicitly or implicitly proclaim that waiting is a good approach to bitcoin and trying to time bottoms is a good way to invest in bitcoin.  Sure, you are not tending to go in details regarding your preference, but you still have those ideas underlying many of your substantive posts.. and sure, maybe I am getting to know you too well? and I don't agree with pushing those ideas, since they are likely not generally good, and they probably are not good in your case either, even though sure you are free to make decisions for yourself, as you do continue to do.


I largely get your points, yet you seem to be stating some of your points wrong.

Sure there are a variety of kinds of risks that we can identify, and then we can potentially take actions to mitigate the various risks, so for example, if we recognize various scenarios that bitcoin could go to zero (or sufficiently negative that it ultimately means zero), we can make sure that we do not invest more than we can afford to lose and we can even hedge downward.  I don't personally engage in hedging...

So a lot of times we may well manage risks with our position size, and even considering downside possibilities with upside possibilities, but we sill might choose not to put everything into bitcoin because we recognize several scenarios that include downside possibilities.

We also may recognize that downside possibilities in 2025 are likely not as great as they were in either 2014 (the year of my forum registration) or 2017 (the year of your forum registration).  So over the years we might create our position sizes in accordance with our perceptions of various risks, and we likely know folks who completely chose not to invest in bitcoin in either 2014 and/or 2017 because they thought that the risks outweighed the possible benefits, yet those guys are not doing as well as even the guys who took relatively modest positions and to only invest 10% of their bitcoin investment portfolio in bitcoin... or maybe some of us might have had purposefully chosen not to front load into bitcoin in the early years, and instead to spread our investment over 8 years through DCAing. Those are implementation choices to help to deal with our perception of risks, and if we overly focus on the risks, some of us might  have had lost out on bitcoin's reward over the past 8 or even 11 years.

Probably in the end, position size is one of the great ways to mitigate risks, even though position size does not completely get rid of any of the risks whether known or unknown... just mitigates the risk to a level that each of us can completely decide upon, which is how much money do we want to put into bitcoin as compared with other places that we could put the money (presuming that we are referring to discretionary income).

There are also various execution risks that relate to how well we calculate and manage our money, we can create more risks if we manage/calculate badly.  

Other execution risks might relate to how we store our coins (with third parties or privately) and maybe how much we might attract attention to ourselves (or our bitcoin) in terms of getting attacked, either in person or through various anonymous or quasi-anonymous ways.

By the way, another risk that each of us might consider is that there might be a variety places that we might have investments, and sure as our investments grow (even if we don't have any bitcoin), we might recognize that our various kinds of investments still have a kind of dollar (fiat) component that underlies them, so a guy who earns $30k per year might spend more than 10 years investing in various assets at a rate of around 15% of his income... so after 10 years, he would have had invested right around $45k into the investment.. so then after the 10 years, he might look at his various investments and try to figure out the extent to which they appreciated in value or depreciated in value, and are they worth more than $45k or not?  Surely many assets have appreciate in terms of dollar value, especially over 10 years, we may well have a doubling of value of our various assets, yet the dollar is likely worth ONLY half as much as it was 10 years earlier.. so frequently assets will ONLY tend to keep up with their debasement rather than outpace the debasement of the dollar, and any of the asset that might haver had been kept directly in dollars rather than invested, then it would be likely worth only half as much (in terms of its purchasing power) after 10 years.  Those are risks, and surely a pretty BIG risk to keep too much value directly in dollars, which is part of the reason that many of us suggest to not be over-exuberant in regards to how many dollars that we are holding beyond the three months of expenses of our emergency fund.


I doubt that there are any specific needs to sell our bitcoin  in large amounts rather than employing some kind of a sustainable withdrawal system that can be price-based and/or time-based, even though I consider that time-based sustainable withdrawal may start to make sense earlier than time-based sustainable withdrawal.


Yep.  Selling and trying to buy back cheaper when we are still in our accumulation stage is not a good idea since it may well end up slowing down BTC accumulation.

Even once we reach overaccumulation status there should be no reasons to sell bitcoin with expectations of buying back cheaper.  It is not a good way of managing our holdings even if we are authorizing ourselves to sell certain quantities of our BTC based on price and/or based on time.


There can be a question of selling based on a target and/or selling within some kind of an acceptable system...

So for example maybe a guy considerably front loaded his bitcoin investment in his first cycle, and then he waited another cycle and then perhaps he set some selling targets.

Le't use your forum registration date since you are just over  years of registration.

So let's say that the guy had a $30k per year salary, and a desire to invest a whole year of his income into bitcoin within the first whole cycle that he was in, which means that he would have had been investing 25% of his income into bitcoin.  So he invested $150 per week from April 2017 until April 2021, and he ended up investing $31k and accumulating 5.08 BTC, which he assessed that perhaps after waiting another whole cycle, he would start to be able to sell in 2025 - however, in 2022 he saw that BTC price were going down so much that he could not resist to continue buying BTC between April 2022 and November 2023, and he bought at $200 per week during that time and so he ended up investing an additional $17k and accumulating about 0.7 BTC.

So then his total invested was $48k with a stack size of 5.78 BTC, and his total cost per BTC was around $8.3k, and he considered once the BTC price reached 10x his costs then he could start selling, which means he could start selling at $83k.   He could authorize himself to sell up to 10% of his holdings at that $83k price, and then maybe every time the BTC price went up an additional 10%, he could sell up to 1% of his holdings.  That would be some variation of price-based sustainable withdrawal.

Alternatively, if his goal was to be able to generate a passive income that was at least 2x his current income (meaning $60k per year), then he would have to get the 200-WMA up to $600k, and in December 2023, the 200-WMA only puts his stash at $168k, so it seems that he might need to keep stacking rather than presuming that he has enough bitcoin or more than enough.

So maybe in January 2024, he decides to go back to stacking sats, but he is going to do it at $150 per week, since $200 per week was too much of a stresser on him, so then over the next 15-ish months, he invests another $10k and accumulated an additional 0.15 BTC.

So then now his total is $58k invested and 5.93 BTC, which ONLY puts him at about half of his goal and ability currently to produce a sustainable income of $29.6k, which truly is not bad but not quite where he wanted to be... and maybe in some sense he could either continue to stack BTC or he could stop stacking bitcoin and let the price come to him, since probably after another 1-2 years or maybe 3 years on the outside, the BTC amount, even if it stays the same at 5.93 BTC, might be able to produce enough income for him to draw upon it at $60k per year.... which largely means that he wants to wait for the 200-WMA to reach $100k, which seems to have reasonable odds of happening in the next two years.


I think that it is better for a guy to reach overaccumulation status first and then not to sell so much as to take him out of overaccumulation status, and you are likely correct that there are guys who sell too many BTC too early and they end up knocking themselves out of the possibility of reaching overaccumulation status even before they get there.

This would be a long wait time, but the wait would be really worth it, after all Bitcoin is slated to secure our financial future and how gracious and of great advantage it would be to us that we allow it serve it's full purpose by securing our future financially rather than settling for short-term gains.

Bitcoin is valuable no doubt, same reason the big players are bagging more and more of it to secure futuristic advantages. It would be beautiful as well that we as individuals moved in that direction to secure such advantage for ourselves by stacking more Bitcoin consistently to enlarge our portfolio instead of selling too soon and might end up  missing out on bigger profitability in the future.

Your suggestion is clearly correct. Rather than selling now just because we've seen a small profit from Bitcoin's price increase, I also believe it would be much better for investors to hold long-term, as Michael J. Saylor did. He frequently buys Bitcoin without selling, especially for the short term. He's now made significant profits, but he's still holding Bitcoin as usual and continuing to buy more to increase his holdings for himself. So, this kind of thing is something that is very worthy for us to emulate if we also want to be long-term investors in Bitcoin who are not immediately tempted by small profits in the short term from the effects of price increases in the market.

Well if you have waited for this long to hold then why not waited for at least the end of the year? We will only have 6 months, give or take to conclude this bull run, so it's better to just continue what you are doing best by holding - accumulate as much as you can + HODL. And I guess for us here who have been in this game, have ignore the short term noise, specially during the bear market wherein we have seen the price at like < $60k and there are a a lot of memes that it is not sailing. But look at the price today, it has double already. Which means that the power of HODL is true and selling prematurely, even at a good price is seen as surrendering to institutional/billionaire dominance.