When holding, we should target at least 4 to 10 years time so that we give enough time when possibly, we stand chances of making higher gains even though you are not obliged to sell off after this holding period too.
Even if you are mentioning 4-10 years or longer as a possible timeline to hold your bitcoin, you still seem to be thinking about bitcoin in terms of a trade rather than an investment since it seems to make little to no sense to build up a bitcoin investment in bitcoin and then transition into selling all of it.. but yeah, people have difficulties considering that they would continue to hold their bitcoin investment through their life, even if they might also be selling parts of it from time to time.
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Well an investor must not sell when Bitcoin hits seven figures because seven figures is really a long way to go even though Bitcoin is volatile. The only time an investor is suppose to sell is when they have reach their target which is the overaccumulation stage and getting to overaccumulation stage doesn't also mean one can or should sell their investment anyhow but rather it is advisable to sell a little cent of it and while selling you are also investing back little to ensure that cent taking off are not been notice.
I think that the idea is that if you believe that you need $80k per year to live comfortably, and you have assessed that
you need a minimum of 16 BTC to start to employ such practice of withdrawing $80k per year from your bitcoin, yet you want to be a little bit more comfortable that you have enough and that you are not making a mistake, so instead of employing the withdrawal strategy at 16 BTC, you want to make sure that you have 25% extra.. and so you wait until you have 20 BTC to start to employ your withdrawal strategy of $80k per year, and in essence you are never going to run out of bitcoin, even if you adjust the withdrawal up 7% each year, so year 1 (right now) you withdraw $80k, and then year 2, 2026 you withdraw $85.6k, and then year 3 2027, you withdraw $91.6k, and then year 4, 2028 you withdraw $98k, and since you are in an overaccumulatoin status, and you chose an appropriate withdrawal amount, your bitcoin is gaining in dollar value faster than the amount that you withdraw from it, and since you purposefully choose to wait to start your withdrawal until you had at least 25% more than your threshold level, you also have an extra cushion of BTC that is adding to your bitcoin growing in dollar value faster than you are withdrawing from it.
Of course, you are responsible for your calculations and to make sure that you don't screw it up, and perhaps if bitcoin seems to be growing in value slower than you expected, then you slow down your withdrawal level and/or otherwise reassess the situation.
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That is a solid long term perspective. Selling should definitely be tied to your personal strategy, not just price milestones...... Seven figures might sound tempting,
but without a clear exit plan, it is easy to fumble the opportunity. I like the idea of taking small profits while reinvesting to stay in the game also a smart way to balance growth and security....
Traders think in terms of exit plan, yet of course, the employment of sustainable withdrawal is still a form of exit plan, but you really never need to exit, you just manage your withdrawals and make sure that you have enough bitcoin to start to have an income that is pretty much perpetual as long as you have accomplished your calculations accurately.
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I get what youre saying, and to be honest, I agree with a big part of it. Selling now just because the price looks good might not be the smartest move, especially if you understand where Bitcoin is heading. This is not just some random asset anymore. The big guys, institutions, its obvious theyre not selling here. Theyre buying. So yeah, if you let go of your position too early, youre likely handing over your edge.
We are still in a position to frontrun bigger players, especially because it takes them time to come around to bitcoin and to invest into it... Yet surely more and more bigger players are getting into bitcoin, so yeah, it becomes harder and harder to say that we front ran BIGGER players if we are still not getting in.
But at the same time, I feel like we have to be real: not everyone is in the same position. Every investor has their own reason for getting in, and their own plan for getting out. Which is simply entering and exit plan
.
Some people have been in this way before most of us even knew what Bitcoin was. Take someone like JayJuanGee, who has been investing in Bitcoin since around 2013, if Im right.. A guy like that could have a portion of his Bitcoin set to sell at $120k, not because he doesnt believe in Bitcoin anymore, but because that is part of his strategy. Maybe its just 0.5-5% of his bag, just to lock something in. That does not mean he is out, it just means he is managing his journey based on how long he has been holding.
Surely there could be guys who are selling up to 10% of their BTC stash every time it doubles (and they don't have to wait for a doubling, they could sell 1% every time it goes up 10%), and maybe they started doing that several years ago. As long as BTC continues going up, they are never going to run out of coins, and BTC keeps gaining in value more than the amounts of their sales. This is price based sustainable withdrawal.
They could also employ time based sustainable withdrawal.. for example to sell 10% of the dollar value of their stash every year based on the 200-WMA value.. and the 200-WMA is quite likely going up more than 10% per year.
They could employ modified versions of price-based and time-based sustainable withdrawal.
And that is what I trying to say, everyone has their own investment plan. Some people are here for the next 5 years. Some are here for 20. Some just want to build enough to make life a bit easier. Others want to go all the way to generational wealth. There is no one size fits all.. lol
But me personally? Im holding strong, Im still pretty new. I believe we are still early. Bitcoin has not even reached real scarcity yet. The world has not woken up fully. When that happens, when the entire financial system begins to realize Bitcoin is here to stay, that is when the real payoff comes. Not now. Not in these small moves
..
Hopefully you are buying and building and not just hodling.. but hey that is your choice..
Guys frequently make mistakes of selling too much too soon and they also make mistakes of failing to continue to accumulate. From my perspective HODL is good once you have enough or more than enough, but if you have not come close to that level of BTC accumulation, then you need to keep buying bitcoin consistently, persistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively.. and don't get too worried about BTC price, especially in your first cycle of accumulating and maybe even in your first two cycles, depending on how much a guy had been able to accumulate in his first cycle of buying.
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That is a disciplined mindset and I respect it. Overaccumulation and multi cycle holding are definitely powerful strategies, especially for those with a long time horizon. But it is s also true that people have different financial realities. Some might need to adapt their plans along the way not everyone can wait multiple cycles before ever touching profits......The key is being intentional, if you are investing with a clear plan, whether it's long term holding or occasional profit taking, what matters is that you are not acting out of fear or hype, but out of strategy.
If you are still in your BTC accumulation phase, selling (or trying to trade) is not a good strategy to assure that you are continuing to accumulate. It also knocks you out of the accumulation mindset and puts you into a waiting mindset, which is likely not going to serve your abilities to accumulate enough or more than enough BTC.
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Most people are trained to react emotionally while the smart money moves with precision. Holding through the noise isnt easy thats exactly why it pays. Zoom out, stay focused, and remember real wealth is built in silence, not hype.
Of course, you can do whatever you want, but there tends to be quite a bit of value in continuing to buy BTC rather than just HODLing, especially when you are in your first cycle or two of accumulating bitcoin.
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Exactly, emotional reactions are what the market feeds on which can be fear, hype, and impatience. But those who stay calm, zoom out, and stick to their plan are the ones who actually win in the long run......
Discipline and silence always beat noise and excitement. Smart money is not loud , its calculated......
Smart money is also not smart from the very beginning. Smart money has to learn how to be smart and also build up their BTC holdings and their wealth through smartness.. and hopefully not fucking around trading and trying to believe that they are smarter than they actually are... but at the same time, quite a bit of smart money made a lot of mistakes prior to becoming smart.
That is a solid long term perspective. Selling should definitely be tied to your personal strategy, not just price milestones...... Seven figures might sound tempting, but without a clear exit plan, it is easy to fumble the opportunity. I like the idea of taking small profits while reinvesting to stay in the game also a smart way to balance growth and security....
Taking small profit when you have not gotten to that over accumulation stage yet is actually not proper, that is the idea of a trader, a real supporter of Bitcoin is only interested in taking profit from his investment when he has gotten to the end of his accumulation stage, which is the over accumulation stage.
Selling part of your Bitcoin with the intention of reinvesting it later is pointless honestly, you can afford to do that when you have gotten to that over accumulation status, not when you are still far behind or no where near your over accumulation status.
I get your point, but not everyones journey or financial situation is the same.
Some people take partial profits to manage risk, especially during uncertain times. ......It doesnt always mean they are not long term believers, sometimes its just about staying in the game and avoiding emotional or financial pressure....It's a wrong mindset in my own opinion, selling some part of your Bitcoin as a means of managing risk makes no sense especially if you are no where near the end of your accumulation journey or you haven't gotten up to that over accumulation status yet.
And as for the aspect of managing financial and emotional pressure, it still makes no sense at all in selling, the primary purpose of investing with an amount you can afford to lose is because of you wouldn't have to be emotional if your investment isn't going as planned, so as a Bitcoin investor, you have no business being emotional with your investment.
There are ways to invest into bitcoin to lessen the emotions, and sure we are all likely to feel some emotions and even uncertainties about if we should do something when the BTC price is running a lot in one direction or another. I frequently have considered that if we put our finances in good order then good emotions will follow from that.
