It's just a psychological scenario and we certainly learn from experience in recent years, we certainly understand the theory of this cycle is widespread and becomes a guideline for investors who are looking for a time to enter, I think a break of one week or one month maximum is not a problem, I know that people like that are not easy to get rid of their doubts and fears, yes if it's you and I certainly know what to do, even there is a storm for us is not a problem, as long as we can afford to buy, we will continue to do it.

Of course it is not one day or two days here, and every mistake is bound to have, but looking for wrong and right is not absolute, depending on the perspective, but I believe that indeed for people like us to continue DCA is very familiar with the market situation, able to control fear and doubt, psychologically formed, but for them not necessarily able, what I fear is that if they force themselves, and then it happens again like October 10, their panic is much worse, and discrediting those who have doubts or fear, is also not a good thing, a gradual approach is the best way.

You might be correct that there might be ways to frame trades so that they are investments into bitcoin, yet I think that I mostly am sticking with my idea that any time period of less than 4 years is trading, and also with likely few exceptions, that there are no real good reasons to get out of bitcoin as an investor in less than 10 years unless it is for health and/or age considerations...

Of course, people can do what they like, yet I am trying to create managable frameworks to help to consider some guidelines.. and of course, deviation from guidelines is self imposed and should be done based on some having had figured out the various trade offs.. and of course, some guys do not figure out anything, they just work from "gut feelings," which likely will get them into trouble if they might find some shitcoin logic persuasive based on "it feels like it is a good idea."   

Sometimes it is good to think about and discuss systems of general applicability, and for sure guys have authority within their own space to take or leave certain parts of the systems of general applicability and the presumptions that go with such general ideas.. since for sure from time to time and in various regards, the specifics of the individual will vary from the generally applicable circumstances... Let's say that most guys start out and they have to figure out their income and figure out how much discretionary income that they have, and maybe they have $100 to $300 per week of discretionary income, and then there might be some other guys who have something like $1k to $3k to start out their investment, and those situations of having some lump sum amount is not very common, but it does happen, especially for guys who might have had already been practicing trying to invest in other things and/or to save and/or to organize their cashflow situation so that they always have a cash cushion.  Many normal people will just wing it.. or have a general idea, without really tracing specifics.. so even when we talk about those general ideas, the specifics that a guy faces will have to be taken into account and for him to plug his specifics into the situation including considering how much experience he might already have in organizing his finances and investing in other assets prior to his developing an interest in investing into bitcoin.

This is not just a price reduction issue, but rather a market sentiment shift. Perhaps what Wind_FURY said is not wrong and could happen at any time. I don't think anyone here would disagree with praying for BTC to continue its price drop, especially if the market continues its short-term drama. The atmosphere can be tedious, especially for the trading team, but not for those who consistently accumulate their BTC holdings through DCA and DCA savers are not losers because here we don't need to be Harvard graduates if we do it.

Brother please don't blame him. We humans can't keep demand within a fixed limit. The guy who is still waiting for $90k if the price of Bitcoin goes to that level then he will say he will buy when it reaches $80k. This is how you can never achieve satisfaction in investing. And many investors miss all the great opportunities and events due to increased demand. It is not only in investing but our demand is unlimited and not tied to a level and keeps changing constantly.

When the price of Bitcoin crossed $126k many investors bought and the guy who said he would buy when the price was $90k expected to buy more Bitcoin when it was $120k. I think the price is not a barrier to buying Bitcoin your mental preparation and having discretionary funds are important because there are many investors who are satisfied with their income flow but do not show judgement with their funds and later regret it.

The problem with most folks is that they mostly want certainty without a framework, gut feeling without discipline and intuition without data. I’ve been following your approaches for as long as I can remember now and if there’s one thing I know about these approaches it is that, though it may not really appear to be what many might consider to be the best, but at least it pushes those who apply it to define why they hold, how long they actually plan to hold and what factors and conditions justify deviation. And this alone is enough to separate investors from emotional participants.

And concerning the 4 year rule, here’s my one cent opinion on that, I honestly don’t think is arbitrary, the duration lines up with Bitcoin’s cycle, market psychology and miner economics too, so anything that goes below the duration of the 4 year rule is indeed trading, because what you’re doing isn’t investing but solely relying on their shorter term market inefficiencies, rather than Bitcoin’s fundamental monetization process.

You hit the nail on the head dips are a love hate thing. On one hand they’re a chance to scoop up more sats at a discount on the other, they can feel like a punch to the gut, especially when you’re watching your stack shrink day by day. If you’re already on a steady DCA plan, the dip becomes less of a panic button and more of a nice and extra buying opportunity when the cash is there. The real kicker is having that discretionary buffer so you don’t have to sell or go into debt just to keep the habit alive.

Actually, I should have mentioned something more realistic about sustainable withdrawals. I originally learned about sustainable withdrawals from your Withdrawal Strategy . What I mean by this is that after reaching the overaccumulation stage, you should sell some Bitcoin on a regular basis, where the amount of Bitcoin sold does not exceed the long-term price growth rate. That calculation will be based on the 200-week moving average. The goal here is to use your Bitcoin holdings in a way that helps cover living expenses, but does not destroy the stack.

We're already in a dip period so there nothing to prepare for except maybe he meant his discretionary fund is not intact for now to buy it, funny enough those who claim they'll prefer to buy the dip won't seize this opportunity cause they feel it would keep going down yeah there's a possibility of it going down but since Bitcoin is unpredictable it would be fair enough to buy now and still buy when it dips more.
 I won't be suprised seeing Bitcoin at 90k or below that, it's possible but thsts not my business since I should be more focused on taking advantage of the dip instead of speculating what the price would be, while people are speculating whales are buying everyday this period while speculators keeping guessing until Bitcoin finish it's correction phase and set towards new ATH.

well, from the point we currently stand, there is nothing impossible to experience especially a $5k difference which can take less than no time to get to. it is not the best that we are seeing the possibility of bitcoin going down further than we currently have it but then, the best way to prepare for the up is to effectively utilize every buying opportunity we have and buying at this point in anticipation of a bull is what we place us at the best spot ever.
 

You’re absolutely right from what you have said, I believe there are situations where some investors wouldn’t want to see a dip, considering the fact that they have been accumulating bitcoin for a very long term and they don’t want to have a scenario where there investment seems to be in a downturn because most holders will likely want to see Bitcoin keep growing so they can continue to have more profit in their bitcoin portfolio, and I don’t see a chance where they will want a dip to last longer instead they will be more interested in bitcoin growing more and more for there own benefit.

There are new investors as well, who might not have that so grate financial enablement more likely having more discretionary income in their own disposal to buy bitcoin, and people who are just getting started, some of them might have different perspectives about the dip, while some might also have different opinions, because some might feel that when there is a dip it gives them more leverage to buy more at a cheaper price, while some might also feel they have been lackadaisical because they have already bought bitcoin and they don’t have money to keep buying when there is a dip to stay on track, and some might as well panic because they are new.

I think everyone is entitled to what they feel makes sense to them, and they can buy bitcoin more no matter what the price of bitcoin would be.

But personally I would rather want to see Bitcoin grow more, instead of anticipating for an unprecedented dip while there are other techniques to keep buying and accumulating bitcoin like buying through DCA and lump sum, and when the price grows high I have more tendency of having more profit than thinking about a dip.