You are correct that profits is a distraction, even though sure we can take them into account, yet a person who had been investing in bitcoin for 10-ish years or more, he might presume that his bitcoin holdings are in profits, yet the more central question would be about whether he has enough bitcoin yet or not.
Presumptively, the longer that any of us have been investing into bitcoin, then the more bitcoin we would end up accumulating, and surely if we spent one or two cycles investing into bitcoin, then perhaps we have a standard of living that we have been living, and we might have goals to be able to either live off of our bitcoin or perhaps to supplement our current income.
If we are investing into bitcoin for a whole cycle or more, we might even presume that we are in profits, yet we still might have questions about whether we have enough bitcoin or not.
Examples could be helpful.. so for example if a person with a $30k per year income had been buying $100 per week of bitcoin, then after 6 years he might have invested right around $32k and maybe he had accumulated 1.3 BTC.. so then obviously his bitcoin holdings are in profits, yet the quantity might still not be enough to be able to either replace his income or to even supplement his income. .. so he might want to still accumulate more bitcoin, and maybe he might consider that if he continues to buy bitcoin, then perhaps in another 6 years, he mgiht be close to 2 BTC... which might be enough or more than enough bitcoin.
From charts of the bitcoin 200-WMA, he can see that
by mid-2033, around 2 BTC or even less might be enough to support a passive income of $80k per year, and so that would ONLY be around more years, and that might be enough of a goal to keep him stacking at the same rate and/or maybe trying to figure out ways if he might be able to increase how much he is investing into bitcoin on a weekly basis by figuring out if he can increase his discretionary income by increasing his income and/or cutting his expenses.
The future BTC price projections (or the 200-WMA) do not need to be 100% accurate in order to help guide directionally what a person might be motivated to do if he is trying to invest in bitcoin with goals of having bitcoin help in future income. I have doubts about profits being a very central motivator (whether we are referring to now or even to the future), even though profits can be interesting to think about but not so much a motivator regarding what to do and/or the extent to which it may well there maybe motivations to continue to stack bitcoin to try to reach his future income and/or cashflow goals.
As a long term investor, a time would definitely come wen you eventually get to realize something simple but really important, and that is that being in profit really doesnt really fix nothing or mean that youve some big deal of an achievement. It definitely feels good seeing that your portfolio is in green, but thats not enough to answer the big question that really matters if youve been staking those sats for years, which is whether youve been able to accumulate enough bitcoin thatll be able to impact your future.
Folks whos been accumulating for around 6 to 10 years usually discovers there was a shift in their mindset. When theyve just gotten started, watching the charts, looking at ROIs, comparing entry points and getting really excited when the price pumped seemed pretty much normal. But after sticking around for a halving or two or maybe 3, the profit gradually stops being the key motivator, and it shifts to the size of your portfolio and whats capable of doing for your life along the line.
And your example of the $30k annual earner is kinda like the perfect description to this. After six years, he was able to accumulate around 1.3 BTC. Hes most likely above his dollar cost average, so surely the stack is very profitable. But he refused to be too comfortable because he knows that being profitable is far from being enough, because the goal isnt to have enough profit but to stack up enough BTC. Having enough profit can only give a good life for a moment, but its never enough to retire him, Change his situation permanently, replace his income and definitely can generate the kind of cash flow thatll make him experience real financial freedom. So even if people may define that level of investment as being successful by the usual definition, he still sees himself as one who can do better, and honestly hes actually right.
