Happy Super Bowl Sunday every one!

This bound to be a good game, the spreads are so tight, and money lines are low.  I prefer a close back and fourth game, it keeps things interesting.  But: if it's close, and Tom Brady's team is the under dog...  There's only one way to go.

Anyway, I picked the Bucks +6.5, and added a few props to boost the odds:



Good luck with your bets today, have fun, and enjoy those Costco hotdogs.  But this time, please don't eat all the guacamole before I'm able get some.

First of all I think this game will not be decided by both offenses, but by the defenses and which defense can make crucial stops and/or get turnovers. Furthermore I think this will be a super close one, I mean really close, where TB will lead for most of the game and also win the SB in the end. @morvillz7z posted a nice list of pros&cons there and I will add a few thoughts.


KC surely has the upper hand in the coaching department - I like Arians and he is a good coach, but Reid is still a level above. But the Bucs can compensate this gap a bit with the Goat himself, who has tons of experience in such games and is a little on-field coach and a better one than Mahomes.

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It's really hard to beat a top team twice in a season, even more so twice in away games. And this, and the home field advantage in general, is something that is missing for me, when I look at the odds. If you have a blank sheet of paper and start compiling the odds, you first add the home advantage and this makes the odds go from 50/50 to 60/40 or ~1.7 vs 2.5. I don't see how these odds are switched when you add all the other factors in afterwards.

I still remember Michael Strahan saying in 2008: "We need to get to Tom Brady or we will not win this Superbowl". Who do I trust more to make the opposing QB feel uncomfortable ? Bucs.
Season sacks: TB 48, Chiefs 32
Sacks allowed: TB 22, Chiefs 24
Of course Mahomes can defend himself way better against the pass rush with his mobility than Brady can do, but still.

As I said before, the Chiefs weren't super convincing all season long, winning a lot of close games (which is some quality of its own tbf), showing different faces and having their ups and downs during the 60 minutes of a game - they won't get away with this today. TB has the better scalps recently winning @NO and @GB, so I dare to say that they are the hotter team for me right now, albeit them having their problems in this season as well, but not so much during a single game.

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All in all the odds for TB represent some value for me and I will play ML on the Bucs. No big stakes, because no big value and this will be close till the end (hopefully !). I am pretty sure you will get both teams >3 inplay, so prematch ML should only be a smaller bet for some adrenaline right from the start

I also like the under, but this is super meh to bet on in a SB.

I think it's a common misconception that mobile quarterbacks are harder to sack, but statistically speaking that hasn't always been true.  It really has more to do with the OLine than the QB's mobility.  It's hard to compare Mahomes' career with that of Brady's just because of the difference in sample size, so in the graphic below I included  a couple of the more successful "mobile" QBs in the league today:  One with a lot of experience; Russell Wilson, and another young QB who is arguably the most mobile in the league today; Deshaun Watson.



Obviously Brady has benefited by playing with OLines that are among the best in the league during his entire career, and so far Patrick Mahomes has as well.  As seen above Mahomes' mobility hasn't had a very significant effect on the sack stats.  The small sample size can certainly compensate for the difference between his and Brady's career numbers.  Mahomes hasn't had to struggle with a porous line the way Brady has had to during some of his seasons.

Mobile QBs are a lot of fun to watch, they're great for the highlight reals, they can make lemon-aid out of lemons the way Wilson has done for years.  But the statistics don't corroborate the notion that they are less-likely to get sacked.

Of course I haven't mentioned the "Pocket Acuity" of Brady.  It's almost like the guy has eyes on the back of his helmet.  The reality is that there is a statistically consistent amount of time that a pocket passer has.  There are specific places to which a pocket passer can slide to buy himself a little more time.  It all comes down to coaching and knowing your team-mates.  No one has mastered the art as well as Tom Brady.

Okay, it's official:  You're invited to all my Post-Covid super bowl parties.  For life.  Unless, you're one of those guys that brings micro-brews to look cool, then proceeds to only drink my coors light.  Then you're uninvited.

BTW, it's always a multi-ethnic super bowl buffet around here; Polish sausages, guacamole, humus, falafel, mom's home-made pita bread, and sushi.  No lack of options for the picky.

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Lol, I doubt the odds would be worth the wager.  

Man, this is starting look like a rout in the making.  Mahomes is 2/9 for 9 yards so far.  KC may not score the 2.5 TDs I need from them to win my bet. 


Sweet.

What a stop by KC on the one yard line! But the KC offence cannot move the ball at all, the OL cannot protect Mahomes.

Edit: TB has almost a FG assured with that awful punt.

Edit: KC is killing itself with flags and it went from TB getting 0 points, then 3 points and now 7 points thanks to the mistakes of KC.

Halftime. If anyone wants good in-game odds on KC - now's your time 


I prefer grape drinks, DireWolfM14 seems to like grain alcohol


They seem to be seriously rattled. I mean why would you go to Brady after the play... there is nothing to "talk" about.

Lol, I've made stupider moves that paid off.   


I blame my ethnicity.  Palestinians aren't known for drinking much, but when we do we prefer weak beer and stinky Scotch.


That's the kind of stupid shit that they need to avoid.  I wish I could read lips, I'm wondering what the fuck Matthew had to say to Brady after that score.  You know Andy Reed is reaming him a new asshole right about now.

Well, not so safe anymore, what with Chiefs refusing to participate.


Yeah... never bet against the goat.