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    Author Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈  (Read 68008 times)
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    tyKiwanuka
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    June 29, 2020, 12:19:37 PM
    Merited by nutildah (1)
     #121

    I'm wondering: how do you use the coronavirus mess (introduction of unknowns and special circumstances) to get an edge when placing a bet? I'm curious to know if you've thought about it.

    I didn't think about it particularly in regards to NFL, since I am not betting it very seriously, but more for the fun of it. What I learned by betting the german Bundesliga is, that there is basically no home advantage no more - there seems to actually be an away advantage Grin Last 9 rounds after Corona break went 26-19-37, so 32% home wins, 23% draws and a whopping 45% away wins. It got a bit better for the home teams in the end, at some point there were only 11% home wins.

    These numbers are not only caused by lack of fan support, but also because the refs are not that biased with no home crowd around, that could cheer them into some decision (even with VAR available). Now I don't think the fans can influence the refs into some decisions in the NFL like they can do in soccer, but the absence of fan support should result in the home teams having less home advantage. But as far as I know, it's still not yet decided, if there will be no spectators at all or maybe at 50% stadium capacity or whatever.

    With reduced preparation/pratice time, this will definitely be advantageous for teams like the Chiefs, who were able keep everyone. If you have a lot of young and new players and maybe a new QB on top of that, you are doomed imo, since it takes a lot of time to get everyone in sync (and NFL ready for the young players).

    There was a team in german Bundesliga that had to go into 2-week quarantine shortly before the season resumed. When they were allowed to play again, they were completely lost, because practice is so very different to in-competition (and the teams they played already had 2-3 matches under their belt). You need more than some days of practice after a long-ish break to get match-fit again. So if certain teams get more practice time than others, that should give them an advantage as well. Especially in such a physical and sophisticated sport that American Football is.


    .....wie die Zeit fliegt.....
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