<<  >> (p.762)
    Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2032323 times)

    • N12
    Donator
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1610
    Merit: 1011



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:21:58 PM
     #15221
    Quote from: cypherdoc on November 01, 2014, 09:10:34 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:06:20 PM
    No emerging SC market will have higher liquidity than the BTC markets. If there is little friction to converting BTC <> SC, then the preferable way will be to convert and sell on the BTCUSD markets, and this can only be done so many times. And of course, converting BTC > SC would serve to make Bitcoin more scarce.

    if you read my simplified version earlier, i think the market will price Bitcoin + SC's in aggregate, not each independently.  what you're doing in essence is moving a bunch of high valued BTC's over to a less secure SC resulting in a lower initial value for scBTC which will then be arbitraged away by pulling down the BTC price to a lower equilibrium.  the "innovation" cannot be depended on initially to offset this dynamic b/c it is unproven.
    Yet if you are right, then few will wish to convert their SC to BTC if they see that they're purely burning their money.

    I just don't think this is anything to be worried about at all.

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:25:14 PM
    Last edit: November 01, 2014, 11:21:57 PM by cypherdoc
     #15222
    Quote from: Odalv on November 01, 2014, 09:14:37 PM
    Quote from: cypherdoc on November 01, 2014, 08:59:23 PM
    i think the conceptual problem many are having here is that they're tying the fiat value of scBTC to BTC b/c all they can think of is this risk free put or 2wp.  that is incorrect.

    the value of the scBTC, in fiat terms, is dependent on the security of the sidechain upon which they are riding at the time, which by definition we know is less secure and has different economic properties.  it may only have 50% of the Bitcoin network hashing power from MM.

    trying to say a new, untested "innovation" will exactly offset the discount the market will apply b/c of less security is naive.  that might only be true over a given time period during which that innovation is tested.

    on top of all this, this discussion is naive in that it ignores economic manipulation or speculation.  even speculative attacks as i have already outline.  

    the peg itself takes at least 2d to contest/confirm.  as we all know, the price of BTC can fluctuate 10% in a day and i'm sure the fiat value of the scBTC will do so as well.  it won't be 1:1 at all times as one would have to assume perfect efficiencies/arbing in market trading which almost certainly never happens.

    But all this can only increase BTC value.

    naive  Roll Eyes  look at the stagnating price now.  it should be going up with all the good news over last 7 mo.

    Quote
    We can create bitcoin features SC
    sure.  something i haven't heard addressed is how will the success or failure of the innovation be determined?  brg444 said an increase in scBTC or an increase in price would be indication for him.  c'mon.  price is the only one factor to measure.  how do the devs plan to measure success in a price volatile situation which we can certainly expect just like we see in Bitcoin?

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:26:48 PM
     #15223
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:21:58 PM
    if they see that they're purely burning their money.



    explain

  • N12
    Donator
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1610
    Merit: 1011



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:29:32 PM
     #15224
    Well, the SCs would have reduced purchasing power. If they want their purchasing power back, they have to convert back. And like I said before, if it is easy enough to convert back, it sure beats dealing with some new and illiquid scamcoin exchanges.

    I was worried initially reading your posts, but I actually like the idea of this two way peg. My opinion remains that the market will inevitably price them very closely to the Bitcoin price because the force of arbitrage is a stronger and more continuous pressure than the realization that Bitcoin is safer. And regardless, the volume will probably be negligible anyway.

  • Odalv
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1414
    Merit: 1000



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:31:11 PM
     #15225
    Quote from: cypherdoc on November 01, 2014, 09:25:14 PM
    naive  Roll Eyes  look at the stagnating price now.  it should be going up with all the good news over last 7 mo.

    Seems, you are out of reality ($320).  We had $6 USD/BTC  2 years ago and $190 1 year ago.

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:38:27 PM
     #15226
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:29:32 PM
    Well, the SCs would have reduced purchasing power. If they want their purchasing power back, they have to convert back. And like I said before, if it is easy enough to convert back, it sure beats dealing with some new and illiquid scamcoin exchanges.

    no, you're missing the time element.

    initially, when a SC is first established, trading prices in fiat for scBTC will be lower b/c they are riding on a less secure sidechain..  we can expect this b/c of newness, less security from MM, possible failure, unproven innovation.  as time goes on, and as arb bots can be confident that the SC is relatively stable and they won't lose any scBTC that they buy in arbing from a SC failure, they will enter the market to buy up scBTC (price rises) while at the same time selling BTC (price drops) until they create a new equilibrium price for both which will closely match each other but result in a lower price for BTC.  multiply this by a 1000x SC's.

    it's kinda like the one's closest to the Fed when it first release QE into the fiat system and it's value is highest until its inflationary effects spread throughout the system. only this is in reverse.

  • Odalv
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1414
    Merit: 1000



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:44:20 PM
     #15227
    Quote from: cypherdoc on November 01, 2014, 09:38:27 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:29:32 PM
    Well, the SCs would have reduced purchasing power. If they want their purchasing power back, they have to convert back. And like I said before, if it is easy enough to convert back, it sure beats dealing with some new and illiquid scamcoin exchanges.

    no, you're missing the time element.

    initially, when a SC is first established, trading prices in fiat for scBTC will be lower b/c they are riding on a less secure sidechain..  we can expect this b/c of newness, less security from MM, possible failure, unproven innovation.  as time goes on, and as arb bots can be confident that the SC is relatively stable and they won't lose any scBTC that they buy in arbing from a SC failure, they will enter the market to buy up scBTC (price rises) while at the same time selling BTC (price drops) until they create a new equilibrium price for both which will closely match but result in a lower price for BTC.  multiply this by a 1000x SC's.

    it's kinda like the one's closest to the Fed when it first release QE into the fiat system and it's value is highest until its inflationary effects spread throughout the system. only this is in reverse.

    That is simply not true. No one will sell you scBTC for less than BTC. He will offer feature/utility on higher price than actually BTC has.  If you buy then I'll make money. If you do not buy then I'll withdraw to BTC.

  • N12
    Donator
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1610
    Merit: 1011



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:48:03 PM
     #15228
    Initially we can't expect shit IMO, because the volume will be low, and that's assuming some credible exchange lists SCs. The amount that is arbed until the price gets close shouldn't be too high. I'm certain that if a credible exchange took it up and it actually had significant volume while being substantially below peg rate, despite any doubts of people with newly converted to SCs, the pressure up would be far higher than the pressure down.

    Why a thousand SCs? Are people really going to flow to so many, or do you expect them to do it in series as one gets deserted after the other?

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:49:15 PM
     #15229
    Quote from: Odalv on November 01, 2014, 09:44:20 PM
    No one will sell you scBTC for less than BTC.

    and this is not necessarily true.  remember, this is NOT an efficient peg with seamless transition back and forth btwn BTC <--> scBTC.  there is at least a 2d delay.

    someone caught in scBTC made need to rush liquidate scBTC for less fiat on an exchange  for any one of a number of reasons.  and then there is shorting as Adrian alluded to earlier.

  • N12
    Donator
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1610
    Merit: 1011



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
     #15230
    I do want to ask though, does this mean you're bearish on Bitcoin now?

  • Odalv
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1414
    Merit: 1000



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 09:59:40 PM
     #15231
    Quote from: cypherdoc on November 01, 2014, 09:49:15 PM
    Quote from: Odalv on November 01, 2014, 09:44:20 PM
    No one will sell you scBTC for less than BTC.

    and this is not necessarily true.  remember, this is NOT an efficient peg with seamless transition back and forth btwn BTC <--> scBTC.  there is at least a 2d delay.

    someone caught in scBTC made need to rush liquidate scBTC for less fiat on an exchange  for any one of a number of reasons.  and then there is shorting as Adrian alluded to earlier.


    I agree with you. It will create new market. But this market will start at 1:1 and participants who start new market are not willing to take loss. They offers new feature. If there is not market for new feature, they will terminate sidechain withdrawing bitcoins.

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 10:03:27 PM
     #15232
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:48:03 PM
    Initially we can't expect shit IMO, because the volume will be low, and that's assuming some credible exchange lists SCs. The amount that is arbed until the price gets close shouldn't be too high. I'm certain that if a credible exchange took it up and it actually had significant volume while being substantially below peg rate, despite any doubts of people with newly converted to SCs, the pressure up would be far higher than the pressure down.

    Why a thousand SCs? Are people really going to flow to so many, or do you expect them to do it in series as one gets deserted after the other?

    there will be thousands b/c it's just software.  no real work involved.

  • Odalv
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1414
    Merit: 1000



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 10:09:53 PM
     #15233
    Quote from: cypherdoc on November 01, 2014, 10:03:27 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:48:03 PM
    Initially we can't expect shit IMO, because the volume will be low, and that's assuming some credible exchange lists SCs. The amount that is arbed until the price gets close shouldn't be too high. I'm certain that if a credible exchange took it up and it actually had significant volume while being substantially below peg rate, despite any doubts of people with newly converted to SCs, the pressure up would be far higher than the pressure down.

    Why a thousand SCs? Are people really going to flow to so many, or do you expect them to do it in series as one gets deserted after the other?

    there will be thousands b/c it's just software.  no real work involved.

    Yes, BUT some are world wide and some are local.

  • N12
    Donator
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1610
    Merit: 1011



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 10:11:40 PM
     #15234
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
    I do want to ask though, does this mean you're bearish on Bitcoin now?
    Why avoid this question? I really am curious. What's there to stop the Sidecoins induced fall to nothingness?

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 10:40:46 PM
     #15235
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 10:11:40 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
    I do want to ask though, does this mean you're bearish on Bitcoin now?
    Why avoid this question? I really am curious. What's there to stop the Sidecoins induced fall to nothingness?

    well, there's always hope it doesn't go thru.

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 10:49:10 PM
     #15236
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 10:11:40 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
    I do want to ask though, does this mean you're bearish on Bitcoin now?
    Why avoid this question? I really am curious. What's there to stop the Sidecoins induced fall to nothingness?

    or maybe that it will provide endless opportunities to manipulate.

  • marcus_of_augustus
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 3920
    Merit: 2349


    Eadem mutata resurgo


    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 10:57:54 PM
     #15237
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 10:11:40 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
    I do want to ask though, does this mean you're bearish on Bitcoin now?
    Why avoid this question? I really am curious. What's there to stop the Sidecoins induced fall to nothingness?

    ... maybe cypherdoc is spreading FUD so he can buy more BTC lower ... who knows?
    Monetary Freedom - an inalienable right
    Per aspera ad astra

  • Adrian-x
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1372
    Merit: 1000



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 11:01:31 PM
     #15238
    Quote from: XBTJackpot on November 01, 2014, 08:10:49 PM
    I hugely disagree with the belief that sidechains will decrease the value of Bitcoin. Having more uses for the Bitcoin blockchain will almost certainly increase its value, rather than decreasing it.

    Do you believe that Bitcoin the currency is separate from Bitcoin the distributed ledger?
    If you do then yes Bitcoin the ledger can be used without Bitcoin the currency. (Make the protocol change)

    Finding uses for Bitcoin the blockchain that are separate from the currency are a threat to Bitcoin the currency.

    If you believe Bitcoin the currency is Bitcoin the ledger then separating them threaten Bitcoin.

    I see all the value that SC enable, I also see some situations where the SC is more valuable than Bitcoin and in those situations bitcoins value leaks into the SC it's not that Bitcoin is beet by competition it's the SC that has enabled a mechanism that exploited Bitcoin.

    Cypher has given examples and there are others too.

    1:1 pegs are a dream. They will only exist within a trusted and controlled system.
    Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw

  • cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 11:09:00 PM
     #15239
    Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on November 01, 2014, 10:57:54 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 10:11:40 PM
    Quote from: Blitz­ on November 01, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
    I do want to ask though, does this mean you're bearish on Bitcoin now?
    Why avoid this question? I really am curious. What's there to stop the Sidecoins induced fall to nothingness?

    ... maybe cypherdoc is spreading FUD so he can buy more BTC lower ... who knows?

    or maybe my explanations simply explain why the market is dropping?

  • brg444
    Hero Member
    *****
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 644
    Merit: 504

    Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


    View Profile
    November 01, 2014, 11:28:05 PM
     #15240
     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

    I haven't visited this thread in 2 days look what I see when I pop up in here, cypherdoc still doesn't sidechains and clings on to failed arguments
    "I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
    Pages: « 1 ... 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 [762] 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 ... 1557 »
      Print  
Page 761
Viewing Page: 762

IRLBTC™ © 2025 IRLBTC.com