My bad, sorry, you did say "When the fees get high enough people start switching" which indicates the marginal cases being phased out.

I was distracted by your violent rhetoric about "hitting a brick wall" and Bitcoin Obituary-type "nobody really cares about Bitcoin any more" speculation.  Again you were right, as in the example of nobody caring about whale oil anymore because of superior substitutes.

Regardless, LN is not an off-chain solution.  Using LN is not like using a bank.  There are no TTPs.  I think of such trustless payment channels as Layer 0.9 (when they are settled they become part of Layer 1).  It's just a write cache; surely you know how those work.

To be honest, I find your reasoning by analogy (involving a lecture about the history of cybernetics, which I don't really need, having also been alive in the era of punch cards and educated in the intellectual progression from Babbage and Lovelace on through Shannon/Wiener/Turing/VonNeumann/Vannevar Bush and finally to Don Knuth, Bill Joy, and Francis Heylighen) to be the opposite of persuasive.

Even worse is your conflation of the hard work of doing the engineering with lazy analogies and argumentum ad Newegg ('zomg cheap storage').  I've terminated more than a few SCSI chains and read StorageReview, so don't try the 'get off my lawn' stuff with me!   

I've copied floppies; my first HD was 120MB (yes MB not GB).  My last one was 2TB.  But I still realize Moore's Law and its analogues are not really laws, just observations that will ultimately succumb to the law of diminishing returns because of physics (if not sooner because of politics).


Bitcoin is by design a settlement system, so Davout is exactly right.  There was never any real chance of everybody on Earth wantonly writing to the Holy Ledger all the time, for all eternity, every time a coffee or bus ticket is purchased.

They guy who played Riker to Satoshi's Picard told us that years ago:


The problem is you don't misunderstand how Lightning and sidechains work, thus making flawed conclusions based on false premises.  There are type mismatch errors in your mental code.  Hint: sidechains != alt chains.

I sincerely urge you to forget everything you think you know about LN/SC (especially the bits related to punch cards) and relearn the topics with fresh, unjaundiced eyes.  It took me a while to stop 'fighting features' and come around to the ideas, but I have and as a result of that deep due diligence am more optimistic about BTC's future than ever before.

It's great you're so enthused about Monero, but even our core devs don't share your 'Monero will replace Bitcoin, Because Blocksize' POV.

Please consider diversifying some of those CAD into a few BTC.  I hate seeing a fellow Mustang go long fiat!   

The heretical position is trying to pull off a contentious hard fork, in sheer defiance of the fact Bitcoin was build to withstand such attacks by giving every social/technological/economic advantage to its defenders and every disadvantage to its attackers.

That's why our favorite antifragile Honey Badger shrugged off XT's chain fork and Hearn's code fork in the same manner as a bag of sand doesn't react when pounded.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

We're only at the beginning of the beginning.  Sidechains, CLTV, and two-way pegs are only the primitives and we have no more idea what may be possible with them than the inventors of the transistor could foresee the Sony AIBO and Girls Gone Bitcoin.

Will monero implement the new BIP that will allow decentralized exchanges?

https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/1248631.0


One day we can see a decentralized, MONERO <> BTC exchange system.

We have a very limited but similar feature already in that our nLockTime field works differently than the Bitcoin one (and more like CLTV). It isn't very useful without multisig and some other smart contract capabilities though. We're still studying how to integrate those.

Among other approaches we have looked at integrating Automated Transactions (which is available as open source and has been integrated with several other coins already), but none of it really makes sense without all the other pieces being there as well.

I read something a little while back about M-Pesa being mainly used in Kenya for the beneficial aspect of micro payments... Does any body have any more info on this besides the news articles that 60 minutes briefly did on it?



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/future-of-money-kenya-m-pesa-60-minutes/

Heads up guys. XMR just rose to 6th place overall on Coingecko.
https://www.coingecko.com/en
Wait till the 0.9 release...

That's exactly what is accounted for in Peter R's math, and it doesn't work. There are many ways to look at why it doesn't work but one way is to recognize that the cost of an orphan comes from the block reward (cost = reward * risk). So without a reward that collapses to zero and this incentive no longer applies. You can work out a more complex model where you already have N transactions in the block (with some fees) and transaction N+1 increases the orphan risk (which is what Peter R did), but you still get the same result. It doesn't work.

EDIT: missing word "and"

I meant without a reward the cost of orphans collapses to zero. What you wrote applies too of course.

Sorry for the delay. I started refactoring some things, improving the security. Then I got distracted with another project. Now I expect it to take another week or two. Soon™.