What are your thoughts on the price of monero when bitcoin halves?
Bitcoin will get pumped up way before the halving. Monero will continue loosing BTC value, as usual.
Will be crucial to get out of the halving pump right bevore it plummets. Do not personally see any added value in devalueing of ASIC investment's revenue. This will merely move a lot of formerly expensive mining equipent to the waste dump.
Where is the "created value" from devalueing formerly expensive hardware investments? Can only spot investments getting wasted in a single step (compare with continually adjusted block rewards)
(obviously fishing for an opposing argument stating against this thesis, 5am in the mourning local time, using slightly damaged english. There is a bagel and some coffee awaiting me soon.)I think the bitcoin post halving thing depends on a lot of things. 1) how efficient they've got their chips by then 2) the deal with the blocksize debate 3) whether idiots trying to create permissioned blockchains finally realize why thats not a solution 4) whether an alternative cryptocurrency has started to gobble significant market share and 5) whether the bitcoin infrastructure starts colluding.
The instantaneous halving is genius social engineering, IMO. Like the emission phase itself that fosters early adoption and bootstraps the economy, the instantaneous halvings create a point in time before which you *must* get in. The media will go nuts. There will be massive demand on bitcoin leading up to the halving.
At this point is a choose-your-own adventure moment.
If the 1 MB is still in effect and there aren't enough workarounds in place, the network will choke and newcomers will question their investment. Determined newcomers will look around and hopefully find monero (probably 10% maybe). Some percent will bail. Some percent won't care.
If 1 MB is not in effect, the can will be kicked down the road and the network won't choke.
If 1 MB is still in effect & the exchanges have made agreements with large mining operations to prioritize their transactions (akin to that chinese company), then the newcomers won't notice a thing.
In either one of those cases, the halving will occur. The price will drop a little bit. Over weeks the difficulty will drop as older hardware is taken offline. When the difficulty drops enough, the big mining firms will fire up their unnannounced, non-released 2 nm asics, driving more small miners off the network.
So, the halving will facilitate centralization really.
Really, after the halving, the price will depend on how much fiat the big players have available to burn on electricity as they wait for prices to increase. If they have to sell their bitcoin to cover electricity then they are done, as well as the price of bitcoin. However, if the big mining firms have arranged with other big players in the network for some type of service contract (see exchange <-> mining described above), then they can probably hold out for a while and not sell as *much* of their BTC to cover the electricity, which will keep the supply of available bitcoin limited.
And of course why would some big players arrange service contracts with exchanges wallet providers? Because the exchanges wallet providers will realize they can get some profit by finding ways to lend bitcoin. And how do you lend bitcoin? By taking control of the keys away from the owners of bitcoin. And why would people give up their keys? So they can enjoy the premium of timely transactions.
The question is how can we prevent this from happening to Monero.
