We are all familiar with the absurd potential of xmr. It is not realized until there is an xmr economy, and is determined by the vitality of that economy when it arises. I would like to put a floor on my estimates. Intuitively, more likely than not, an SR type site will adopt xmr during 2015. If reasonably well run, it should rapidly dominate due to the relative privacy advantage. Thus it should turn about 20mm usd p.a. The float available to this economy should be at least 200k but probably less than 800k xmr. Call it 1mm for conservativism. A velocity of 10 might be achievable, albeit unlikely. Thus my worst case estimate for xmr exchange value 12 months hence is 2 usd, with p>.5. Consequently my estimate of present fair value is at least 1 usd, and I expect an upside no less than 3x this year. That happens to coincide with the present annual rate of increase in the log-logistic fit for btc.
1. Litecoin has a 120 million dollar market cap and tons of daily trade volumewithout any real economy. Bitcoin's real world economy is really not terribly large either. The biggest dollar-amount market for cryptos will be in as speculative stores of value. The trillions of dollars in offshore bank accounts. XMR could still outperform in this area given it's untraceability and unlinkability.
2. Accepting the premise that an XMR economy is necessary, that won't happen in 2015. A reasonably well-run (security-minded, ultra-paranoid) site will have multi-sig escrow, which of course is not available in XMR yet and the website admin will want to see other things in place besides multi-sig such as more liquidity.
I've said it before. I'm looking at 2016-2017 as XMR's time if it's to have one.