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    Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 192934 times)

    • Peter Todd
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    July 10, 2013, 12:32:17 AM
     #1521
    Please do keep posting - if SatoshiDice is losing popularity we want to see the stats showing the decline.
    BTC: 1FCYd7j4CThTMzts78rh6iQJLBRGPW9fWv  PGP: 7FAB114267E4FA04

  • organofcorti
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    Poor impulse control.


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    July 10, 2013, 12:46:58 AM
     #1522
    Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 12:12:58 AM
    Quote from: ar9 on July 09, 2013, 10:18:24 PM
    'Grats on getting out Dooglus.
    Probably hurts, but it's probably a very liberating feeling.

    I'm hoping to get out ASAP, but posts like these make it worse for me as I'm trying to mitigate my losses.  Catch-22... I want to empathize and be happy for people while not devaluing S.DICE.

    Thanks again for the report. 

    I've been waiting and waiting for the promised announcement of new features, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen, so I gave up.

    I'll continue posting the reports as long as there's any interest.  I got a new laptop today with more RAM and a faster processor, so hopefully it won't be too painful to generate them in the future.

    Wait - another new laptop? Do you eat them, or practice your chainsaw skills on them?
    Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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  • Korbman
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    July 10, 2013, 12:53:13 AM
     #1523
    Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 12:12:58 AM
    [...] I got a new laptop today with more RAM and a faster processor, so hopefully it won't be too painful to generate them in the future.

    Ha, I like how your solution to upgrading a laptop's RAM and processor is to buy a new laptop altogether Tongue
    Looking to collaborate on a project? | GPG - pgp.mit.edu - 0x27745075 0xBE267F16  |  WoT

  • GeoRW
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    July 10, 2013, 04:27:28 AM
     #1524
    How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

  • dooglus
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    July 10, 2013, 05:31:14 AM
     #1525
    Quote from: GeoRW on July 10, 2013, 04:27:28 AM
    How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

    I don't know.  I put 80 BTC onto bitfunder and got 28.3309509 BTC back (including dividends).  Turns out it's only a 64.6% loss.

    Here's how the magic happened, using my patented "buy high, sell low" technique:
    Just-Dice                 ██             
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                ██████                		   1% House Edge

  • dooglus
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    July 10, 2013, 05:38:42 AM
     #1526
    Quote from: Korbman on July 10, 2013, 12:53:13 AM
    Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 12:12:58 AM
    [...] I got a new laptop today with more RAM and a faster processor, so hopefully it won't be too painful to generate them in the future.

    Ha, I like how your solution to upgrading a laptop's RAM and processor is to buy a new laptop altogether Tongue

    The last one turned out to be a lemon.  It crashes randomly if I look at it wrongly.  I think there must be a hardware fault with it.  I'll return it for repair, but can't be without a laptop while that's happening.  So I figured I should get another one.  Always good to have a spare, right?  Also, the AMD graphics on it aren't really supported by the OS I run, it crashes about 10% of the time when I try to resume from suspend.  All in all I regret buying it, but left it too long to return it.

    The old one is now permanently offline, acting as Just-Dice cold storage, so that's not an option.
    Just-Dice                 ██             
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                ██████                		   1% House Edge

  • wtfvanity
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    WTF???


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    July 10, 2013, 03:10:16 PM
     #1527
    Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 05:31:14 AM
    Quote from: GeoRW on July 10, 2013, 04:27:28 AM
    How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

    I don't know.  I put 80 BTC onto bitfunder and got 28.3309509 BTC back (including dividends).  Turns out it's only a 64.6% loss.

    Here's how the magic happened, using my patented "buy high, sell low" technique:




    Ouch, my numbers weren't as big, but had a similar scenario on bitfunder. I bought in around the same price, but I dumped mine about .0035 so it didn't hurt quite as bad, and I only lost about 3 BTC. Sorry dooglus. Hope just-dice is making it back for you.
              WTF!     Don't Click Here              
              .      .            .            .        .            .            .          .        .     .               .            .             .            .            .           .            .     .               .         .              .           .            .            .            .     .      .     .    .     .          .            .          .            .            .           .              .     .            .            .           .            .               .         .            .     .            .            .             .            .              .            .            .      .            .            .            .            .            .            .             .          .

  • RationalSpeculator
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    This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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    July 10, 2013, 05:39:07 PM
     #1528
    Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 05:31:14 AM
    Quote from: GeoRW on July 10, 2013, 04:27:28 AM
    How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

    I don't know.  I put 80 BTC onto bitfunder and got 28.3309509 BTC back (including dividends).  Turns out it's only a 64.6% loss.

    Here's how the magic happened, using my patented "buy high, sell low" technique:




    I'm sorry for your loss Sad

    Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

  • dooglus
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    July 10, 2013, 07:12:52 PM
     #1529
    This one's for RationalSpeculator.

    Thanks for caring about my loss, people, but I've already made it back on my Just-Dice investment.  Smiley

    Quote
    Tue Jul  9 20:56:19 2013 <8000  245735 e6342e8362075275:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    21.00000000 WIN    147.00823200
    Tue Jul  9 21:13:36 2013 <8000  245737 bfde621a00fd01bd:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    28.00000000 WIN    196.01097600
    Tue Jul  9 21:13:36 2013 <1000  245737 b59fe42ec9fecc95:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     4.00000000 WIN    251.87254400
    Tue Jul  9 21:24:50 2013 <2000  245739 f6396287b120762a:2  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
    Tue Jul  9 21:24:50 2013 <8000  245739 7446e85778c3f4a3:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
    Tue Jul  9 22:23:50 2013 <8000  245743 69a314e796c2e6f6:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    28.00000000 WIN    196.01097600
    Tue Jul  9 23:01:30 2013 <2000  245746 bb71c5094eaad4f1:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
    Tue Jul  9 23:01:30 2013 <8000  245746 c4d798b84c8240f9:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
    Tue Jul  9 23:59:35 2013 <2000  245754 15bc42959d0817a1:0  1LktGPFJviEab7CHNQ3xxGAvXQ9psdcvau BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
    Wed Jul 10 00:04:49 2013 <8000  245755 be38a9e0db6e5bd8:0  19jbJsmGWRaFycbp6tRtkR4VVsErBq4Wis BET    17.00000000 WIN    119.00666400
    Wed Jul 10 00:09:12 2013 <8000  245756 2acb42cf3ef865d1:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    22.00000000 WIN    154.00862400
    Wed Jul 10 00:28:12 2013 <6000  245762 0ba20a2fa23def0e:1  16U6mo1kPQuqrSaHjijDFNnnbfEfCGdmeZ BET    20.00000000 WIN    193.31045333
    Wed Jul 10 00:40:12 2013 <8000  245764 04695da25d6bc54b:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
    Wed Jul 10 02:00:59 2013 <8000  245773 2caf91f7826e95cc:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    17.00000000 WIN    119.00666400
    Wed Jul 10 02:00:59 2013 <8000  245773 5e64ef3314f77dfd:2  16U6mo1kPQuqrSaHjijDFNnnbfEfCGdmeZ BET    22.00000000 WIN    154.00862400
    Wed Jul 10 02:00:59 2013 <2000  245773 96b65619be9cdda5:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    10.00000000 WIN    309.86568000
    Wed Jul 10 02:28:16 2013 <2000  245777 deab9f1e5c300d90:2  16U6mo1kPQuqrSaHjijDFNnnbfEfCGdmeZ BET    11.00000000 WIN    340.85224800
    Wed Jul 10 02:50:18 2013 <8000  245780 8d9d937ea60fc261:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000
    Wed Jul 10 02:58:18 2013 <8000  245781 98da13c515556955:1  1D1q5o7FZn3kCbFNEBymE5wswbyoVeu9Bs BET    21.00000000 WIN    147.00823200
    Wed Jul 10 02:58:18 2013 <2000  245781 040c83606dd1f777:2  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
    Wed Jul 10 04:16:48 2013 <8000  245788 1200dbe15a7790e2:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000
    Wed Jul 10 04:44:20 2013 <8000  245793 3cb824b383b675c1:3  1Hf6PQQPRe9KH3KpAPEtLjAFJKbJFsKPRB BET    20.00000000 WIN    140.00784000
    Wed Jul 10 04:55:31 2013 <8000  245795 bd333c81eee4171a:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    25.00000000 WIN    175.00980000
    Wed Jul 10 05:11:25 2013 <6000  245797 5a823ebc722ea4e6:4  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    16.00000000 WIN    154.64836266
    Wed Jul 10 05:23:36 2013 <16000 245799 89492f0f39f0e052:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    36.00000000 WIN    108.09705600
    Wed Jul 10 05:33:35 2013 <8000  245800 a09cb6ab623626e3:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    24.00000000 WIN    168.00940800
    Wed Jul 10 05:55:49 2013 <8000  245801 cb1281e501f09aab:4  1Hf6PQQPRe9KH3KpAPEtLjAFJKbJFsKPRB BET    20.00000000 WIN    140.00784000
    Wed Jul 10 06:01:02 2013 <8000  245803 f0d89f365c176049:3  1DQ7yxexeDo7QVkoXPbf6gKmcpchbdEb3V BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
    Wed Jul 10 06:07:00 2013 <8000  245805 b7c669b7681e6f9b:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
    Wed Jul 10 06:47:00 2013 <8000  245809 3a9544d63aea68e4:1  1Hf6PQQPRe9KH3KpAPEtLjAFJKbJFsKPRB BET    29.00000000 WIN    203.01136800
    Wed Jul 10 06:57:17 2013 <8000  245812 81a5a6356ab0246c:2  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000
    Wed Jul 10 07:13:59 2013 <2000  245814 b64fc42eea34f40e:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
    Wed Jul 10 07:38:23 2013 <1000  245819 ff8ccfba5921ce9f:3  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     2.00000000 WIN    125.93627200
    Wed Jul 10 08:47:33 2013 <8000  245823 55c5a0a9ff8a4ef7:4  14kmeURcEiLvniuubqKmquNXBNoRPDgdZs BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000
    Wed Jul 10 09:21:26 2013 <8000  245828 530d129b70d7cbf4:2  1143iB2H3rBA8qMxxGhvwQ44rJkGVssrtz BET    24.00000000 WIN    168.00940800
    Wed Jul 10 09:43:13 2013 <2000  245829 ae4127dbdd415017:0  1NGgTsQVUTNnk7gZojxkpNS8YmP8TJd3Zk BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
    Wed Jul 10 10:31:36 2013 <8000  245835 757598bc94de58ea:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    25.00000000 WIN    175.00980000
    Wed Jul 10 10:37:00 2013 <8000  245837 f1b08b3878efd43f:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    25.00000000 WIN    175.00980000
    Wed Jul 10 11:18:42 2013 <8000  245842 c75d2eb4fc740dca:0  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    26.00000000 WIN    182.01019200
    Wed Jul 10 13:05:09 2013 <2000  245854 e31ae915fd6fd585:2  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
    Wed Jul 10 15:18:26 2013 <3000  245869 e955eb565d4d7731:2  16M1rdbw3xQhDZB4nhdAtJn4p24MmapGwM BET     9.00000000 WIN    182.93440800
    Wed Jul 10 16:06:46 2013 <8000  245875 f9c1cea2abaee026:3  1EJjoW7Mr8B9oHvhbKWaHji34rj8vnEYQd BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
    Wed Jul 10 16:50:41 2013 <6000  245880 6de5b8f30f311493:3  18vXpUJMYCFaghKHHCJtGcfa32jqyj7Wy8 BET    12.00000000 WIN    115.98627200
    Wed Jul 10 17:46:09 2013 <8000  245885 7bfda0a44b195df7:4  18vXpUJMYCFaghKHHCJtGcfa32jqyj7Wy8 BET    30.00000000 WIN    210.01176000
    Wed Jul 10 18:36:21 2013 <8000  245893 e0927954df7c4ca4:2  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    25.00000000 WIN    175.00980000
    Wed Jul 10 18:36:21 2013 <2000  245893 96823dd68ff3db36:1  19gD4M8xzQA2yVV7M2k8ZR9TqoxkxaWLVn BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
    Wed Jul 10 18:42:26 2013 <8000  245895 67da1a05446348f1:2  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET    25.00000000 WIN    175.00980000

    Quote
    Total of 68 bets unaccounted for.

    Results: 2013-Jul-10 12:10pm (up to block 245898)

       Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25354 |   22960 (0.97869) |     500 |    1894 |   26383.05 |   25943.32 |   241.48 |    439.72 |  98.333
    1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   190165 |  173138 (0.91552) |   15976 |    1051 |   93192.53 |   91896.53 |     2.82 |   1296.00 |  98.609
    1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   111622 |   94860 (0.85632) |   15916 |     846 |   92312.25 |   91375.58 |   401.50 |    936.67 |  98.985
    1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   118980 |   93832 (0.79382) |   24371 |     777 |   75147.05 |   73294.09 |  1188.43 |   1852.96 |  97.534
    1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   502948 |  368650 (0.73454) |  133228 |    1070 |  334380.42 |  326340.64 |  6173.64 |   8039.78 |  97.596
    1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   898000 |  447527 (0.49948) |  448467 |    2006 |  796777.59 |  775355.14 |  6524.69 |  21422.44 |  97.311
    1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1418864 |  691515 (0.48812) |  725174 |    2175 |  984978.13 |  965430.50 |  3003.06 |  19547.63 |  98.015
    1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   337898 |  123802 (0.36723) |  213325 |     771 |  604681.91 |  595854.13 |  1014.02 |   8827.78 |  98.540
    1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   358554 |   87330 (0.24415) |  270363 |     861 |  414692.64 |  399384.08 |  2323.67 |  15308.55 |  96.308
    1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   148264 |   27024 (0.18315) |  120524 |     716 |  186493.57 |  187273.24 |  3315.58 |   -779.67 | 100.418
    1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   275872 |   33729 (0.12258) |  241425 |     718 |  145103.56 |  145503.73 |   307.33 |   -400.17 | 100.276
    1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    70486 |    6394 (0.09149) |   63491 |     601 |   19432.68 |   20602.58 |     7.84 |  -1169.90 | 106.020
    1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    42987 |    2645 (0.06216) |   39907 |     435 |    8254.02 |    8214.22 |    31.50 |     39.80 |  99.518
    1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34461 |    1576 (0.04645) |   32351 |     534 |   11138.17 |   11919.21 |    40.52 |   -781.03 | 107.012
    1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   121347 |    3672 (0.03038) |  117178 |     497 |   76000.81 |   72787.15 |   155.74 |   3213.65 |  95.772
    1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29158 |     665 (0.02315) |   28059 |     434 |    8182.71 |    8736.29 |    15.38 |   -553.58 | 106.765
    1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   185754 |    2826 (0.01528) |  182174 |     754 |   57605.83 |   53323.77 |    31.31 |   4282.06 |  92.567
    1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43052 |     335 (0.00793) |   41900 |     817 |    8574.43 |    6992.52 |    10.41 |   1581.91 |  81.551
    1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29150 |     119 (0.00415) |   28579 |     452 |    6154.82 |    8717.38 |    13.38 |  -2562.55 | 141.635
    1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    24173 |      44 (0.00186) |   23576 |     553 |    2479.82 |    1603.39 |    50.66 |    876.43 |  64.658
    1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    33174 |      36 (0.00110) |   32549 |     589 |    2256.24 |    1750.74 |   117.25 |    505.49 |  77.596
    1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    35518 |      17 (0.00049) |   35020 |     481 |    1771.40 |    1911.44 |     1.67 |   -140.04 | 107.906
    1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    27334 |       5 (0.00019) |   26819 |     510 |     943.66 |     606.95 |    22.27 |    336.71 |  64.319
    1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    27917 |       5 (0.00018) |   27343 |     569 |     659.47 |     434.15 |    15.06 |    225.31 |  65.834
    1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16153 |       2 (0.00013) |   15590 |     561 |     241.44 |     320.54 |    18.58 |    -79.09 | 132.758
    1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14090 |       0 (0.00000) |   13477 |     613 |     198.81 |       0.58 |    31.25 |    198.23 |   0.295
    1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   167332 |       4 (0.00002) |  164461 |    2867 |    2187.51 |    4485.50 |   196.93 |  -2297.98 | 205.050
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5148830 | 2122440           | 3002551 |   23839 |  975781.75 |  957701.36 |   378.55 |  18080.38 |  98.147
                big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   139777 |   60272           |   79192 |     313 | 2984442.92 | 2922356.14 | 24877.57 |  62086.78 |  97.920
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    |  5288607 | 2182712           | 3081743 |   24152 | 3960224.67 | 3880057.51 | 25256.13 |  80167.16 |  97.976
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SD Profit before fees:      80167.16356698 BTC (2.024%)
    Cumulative Fees Paid:        4564.00557500 BTC
    SD Profit after fees:       75603.15799198 BTC (1.909%)
    Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
    Final SD Profit:            75603.15799198 BTC (1.909%)
    Profit This Month:          -1447.29102136 BTC
    ----
    Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
    Blockchain Tx: 17632749  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9716710  (55.1%)
    Blockchain MB:   7766.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4013.0  (51.7%)
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  • jonitas
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    July 10, 2013, 10:17:29 PM
     #1530
    Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 10, 2013, 05:39:07 PM

    Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

    That's not correct. If we take Dooglus for example:

    He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84

    And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

    For a USD profit of 24%. In BTC terms it looks very bad of course, but the key when investing in anything is always to diversify. Even though he lost in BTC terms I wouldnt say it was a bad decision to put money in sdice.

    I am keeping my SDICE shares and have put some money in just-dice as well. I think the competition will do SatoshiDice good.

  • thoughtfan
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    July 11, 2013, 07:14:14 AM
     #1531
    Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 10:17:29 PM
    Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 10, 2013, 05:39:07 PM

    Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

    That's not correct. If we take Dooglus for example:


    No, it is incorrect to say it is 'not correct' because of not taking the exchange rate into the equation.  Of course you are welcome to include that in your own assessment of yours or anybody else's investment but it is perfectly reasonable to make the assessment of an investment on the basis of the currency in which it was invested alone.  Would you think me 'not correct' in saying I'd made a good profit from stocks I bought in euros even if the profit was more than wiped out from a pound perspective by the exchange rate having changed?

  • Dabs
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    July 11, 2013, 07:31:19 AM
     #1532
    Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 10:17:29 PM
    He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84
    And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

    He'd be better off putting those 79.9924 BTC into cold storage and just selling it today without having it go through S.DICE. Then he'd have $6,997 now instead of $2136.43.
    Escrow Service (Historical) - Feed Some Children by Dabs (Historical) - GPG ID: 32AD7565, OTC ID: Dabs
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  • dooglus
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    July 11, 2013, 07:36:02 AM
     #1533
    Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 10:17:29 PM
    He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84

    And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

    For a USD profit of 24%. In BTC terms it looks very bad of course, but the key when investing in anything is always to diversify. Even though he lost in BTC terms I wouldnt say it was a bad decision to put money in sdice.

    I absolutely would.  If I hadn't put the money in sdice, I would have left it in my bitcoin wallet.

    Any investment that does worse than a paper wallet (the bitcoin equivalent of burying your money in the sand) is a bad decision in my book.
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  • solex
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    July 11, 2013, 08:40:13 AM
     #1534
    dooglus, have you seen that Bitcoin transaction volumes (to all addresses) have declined to Dec/Jan levels?
    https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

    Is there a noticeable decline in S.Dice trades avg.no/day?

    I note that there is a long-term increase still in train for non-popular addresses...
    https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
    Please help fund projects to advance Bitcoin:
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    rocks: Changing the supply limit fundamentally destroys bitcoin, but increasing the blocksize limit is absolutely needed to make it successful.

  • RationalSpeculator
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    July 11, 2013, 09:41:42 AM
    Last edit: July 11, 2013, 10:13:06 AM by RationalSpeculator
     #1535
    Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 07:12:52 PM
    This one's for RationalSpeculator.

    Thanks for caring about my loss, people, but I've already made it back on my Just-Dice investment.  Smiley

    Thanks so much dooglus! Smiley


    Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 10:17:29 PM
    Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 10, 2013, 05:39:07 PM

    Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

    That's not correct. If we take Dooglus for example:

    He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84

    And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

    For a USD profit of 24%. In BTC terms it looks very bad of course, but the key when investing in anything is always to diversify. Even though he lost in BTC terms I wouldnt say it was a bad decision to put money in sdice.

    I am keeping my SDICE shares and have put some money in just-dice as well. I think the competition will do SatoshiDice good.

    Thanks for correcting me. You are right that in dooglus his case he has a USD profit of +24%. Very respectable in my book indeed.

    However those that bought in March and April when SDICE was valued around $30 and up to $40 million do have a considerable USD loss since the company is valued around $17 million today. A loss of around -50%!

  • FTWbitcoinFTW
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    July 11, 2013, 11:28:33 AM
     #1536
    Since your investissement is in bitcoin, forget about dollard when you do the math !

    if you put 10btc you should get back 10 btc, or it's a fails, period.
    Quote from: satoshi on June 21, 2010, 05:48:26 PM
    Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
    Quote from: Dorian on March 06, 2014, 10:12:41 PM
    it has lots of buttery taste..

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    July 11, 2013, 11:51:34 AM
    Last edit: July 11, 2013, 01:02:19 PM by RationalSpeculator
     #1537
    Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on July 11, 2013, 11:28:33 AM
    Since your investissement is in bitcoin, forget about dollard when you do the math !

    if you put 10btc you should get back 10 btc, or it's a fails, period.

    Only if one COMPARES an investment in bitcoin with an investment in SDICE does btc value of an investment matters.

    To evaluate an investment in SDICE an sich, USD value matters as btc value has little meaning. Bitcoins are not useful yet as a unit of account because it is not stable. Sometimes btc is worth a lot, sometimes it's worth much less. Saying something was worth x btc and now it's only worth y btc, does not tell the whole picture if in the meantime btc tenfolded in value!

    Until bitcoin has become a mainstream stable currency (another few decades...) it makes good sense to continue to evaluate the performance of your investments with the most stable unit of account: fiat!

  • dooglus
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    July 11, 2013, 10:17:48 PM
     #1538
    Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 11, 2013, 11:51:34 AM
    Until bitcoin has become a mainstream stable currency (another few decades...) it makes good sense to continue to evaluate the performance of your investments with the most stable unit of account: fiat!

    Except I was deciding whether to hold BTC or SDICE.  For me, holding SDICE was a horrible decision.  Holding USD would have been even worse of course.

    Quote
    Wed Jul 10 20:41:23 2013 <2000  245913 8dfb9b1e0cd42853:1  13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET     4.00000000 WIN    123.94627200
    Thu Jul 11 06:37:16 2013 <2000  245990 e2088a488c3a3c51:3  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    11.00000000 WIN    340.85224800
    Thu Jul 11 07:21:23 2013 <8000  245997 1aae126703556be5:2  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    24.00000000 WIN    168.00940800
    Thu Jul 11 07:36:10 2013 <8000  246000 48b3feab876ec304:2  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    25.00000000 WIN    175.00980000
    Thu Jul 11 08:10:20 2013 <8000  246003 ccc9153cda694ea4:2  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    28.00000000 WIN    196.01097600
    Thu Jul 11 08:51:07 2013 <8000  246007 da7361f7d4ad4134:2  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    28.00000000 WIN    196.01097600
    Thu Jul 11 09:22:47 2013 <16000 246015 14edf9a2b6f24b89:0  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    35.00000000 WIN    105.09436000
    Thu Jul 11 14:04:02 2013 <16000 246041 9e33501df9c14e3b:0  1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET    36.00000000 WIN    108.09705600

    Quote
    Total of 10 bets unaccounted for.

    Results: 2013-Jul-11 03:14pm (up to block 246111)

       Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25366 |   22972 (0.97870) |     500 |    1894 |   26391.46 |   25951.77 |   241.48 |    439.69 |  98.334
    1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   190688 |  173612 (0.91550) |   16025 |    1051 |   93247.03 |   91948.41 |     2.82 |   1298.61 |  98.607
    1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   111759 |   94978 (0.85633) |   15935 |     846 |   92380.03 |   91444.99 |   401.50 |    935.04 |  98.988
    1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   119054 |   93892 (0.79383) |   24385 |     777 |   75160.56 |   73309.66 |  1188.43 |   1850.90 |  97.537
    1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   503910 |  369368 (0.73456) |  133472 |    1070 |  334687.50 |  326693.82 |  6173.64 |   7993.67 |  97.612
    1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   898820 |  447947 (0.49949) |  448864 |    2009 |  796895.46 |  775477.53 |  6524.71 |  21417.93 |  97.312
    1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1420233 |  692198 (0.48813) |  725860 |    2175 |  985528.47 |  965949.65 |  3003.06 |  19578.82 |  98.013
    1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   338637 |  124087 (0.36727) |  213779 |     771 |  604764.06 |  595926.47 |  1014.02 |   8837.59 |  98.539
    1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   359502 |   87560 (0.24415) |  271079 |     863 |  415874.34 |  400681.68 |  2323.68 |  15192.65 |  96.347
    1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   148568 |   27071 (0.18310) |  120781 |     716 |  187106.46 |  187569.71 |  3315.58 |   -463.24 | 100.248
    1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   276281 |   33764 (0.12253) |  241797 |     720 |  146384.65 |  146729.90 |   307.33 |   -345.24 | 100.236
    1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    70587 |    6400 (0.09145) |   63585 |     602 |   19550.25 |   20795.41 |     7.84 |  -1245.15 | 106.369
    1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    43000 |    2646 (0.06216) |   39919 |     435 |    8254.34 |    8214.41 |    31.50 |     39.92 |  99.516
    1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34480 |    1577 (0.04646) |   32369 |     534 |   11145.60 |   11919.46 |    40.52 |   -773.86 | 106.943
    1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   121558 |    3679 (0.03039) |  117382 |     497 |   76736.08 |   73273.75 |   155.74 |   3462.32 |  95.488
    1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29185 |     665 (0.02313) |   28085 |     435 |    8183.14 |    8736.29 |    15.39 |   -553.15 | 106.760
    1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   185909 |    2829 (0.01528) |  182326 |     754 |   57640.95 |   53329.06 |    31.31 |   4311.89 |  92.519
    1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43067 |     335 (0.00793) |   41915 |     817 |    8574.62 |    6992.52 |    10.41 |   1582.09 |  81.549
    1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29159 |     119 (0.00415) |   28588 |     452 |    6154.93 |    8717.38 |    13.38 |  -2562.44 | 141.632
    1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    24209 |      44 (0.00186) |   23612 |     553 |    2480.24 |    1603.39 |    50.66 |    876.84 |  64.647
    1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    33198 |      36 (0.00110) |   32573 |     589 |    2256.65 |    1750.74 |   117.25 |    505.90 |  77.582
    1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    35587 |      17 (0.00048) |   35089 |     481 |    1772.14 |    1911.44 |     1.67 |   -139.30 | 107.861
    1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    27348 |       5 (0.00019) |   26833 |     510 |     943.85 |     606.95 |    22.27 |    336.89 |  64.306
    1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    27924 |       5 (0.00018) |   27350 |     569 |     659.54 |     434.15 |    15.06 |    225.38 |  65.827
    1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16196 |       2 (0.00013) |   15633 |     561 |     242.00 |     320.54 |    18.58 |    -78.53 | 132.453
    1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14106 |       0 (0.00000) |   13491 |     615 |     199.06 |       0.58 |    31.33 |    198.47 |   0.295
    1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   167678 |       4 (0.00002) |  164789 |    2885 |    2191.05 |    4485.52 |   197.41 |  -2294.47 | 204.720
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5155892 | 2125478           | 3006546 |   23868 |  976827.98 |  958719.21 |   379.15 |  18108.77 |  98.146
                big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   140117 |   60334           |   79470 |     313 | 2988576.59 | 2926056.10 | 24877.57 |  62520.49 |  97.908
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    |  5296009 | 2185812           | 3086016 |   24181 | 3965404.58 | 3884775.32 | 25256.72 |  80629.26 |  97.967
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SD Profit before fees:      80629.26253031 BTC (2.033%)
    Cumulative Fees Paid:        4571.79017500 BTC
    SD Profit after fees:       76057.47235531 BTC (1.918%)
    Pending Liabilities:           -5.52077556 BTC
    Final SD Profit:            76062.99313087 BTC (1.918%)
    Profit This Month:           -987.45588247 BTC
    ----
    Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
    Blockchain Tx: 17680941  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9730080  (55.0%)
    Blockchain MB:   7787.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4018.6  (51.6%)
    Just-Dice                 ██             
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            ██████████████       
                ██████                		   Play or Invest                 ██             
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                ██████                		   1% House Edge

  • RationalSpeculator
    Sr. Member
    ****
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 294
    Merit: 250

    This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


    View Profile
    July 11, 2013, 10:28:41 PM
     #1539
    Thanks for the update dooglus Smiley

    Quote from: dooglus on July 11, 2013, 10:17:48 PM

    Except I was deciding whether to hold BTC or SDICE.  For me, holding SDICE was a horrible decision.  Holding USD would have been even worse of course.


    Compared to btc you are right, it was horrible indeed.

  • Jonny Heggheim
    Member
    **
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 74
    Merit: 10


    View Profile
    July 11, 2013, 10:44:53 PM
     #1540
    Thanks for still giving us new reports
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