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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis (Read 192942 times)

Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 01:09:51 AM

#841

The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:

Remaining
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo 0BTC
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y 0BTC
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV 0BTC
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk 0BTC
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK 0BTC
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah 1649BTC
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ 31BTC
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric 0BTC

Any questions?

ajk

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 01:29:33 AM

#842

Quote from: Bugpowder on February 10, 2013, 01:09:51 AM

The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:

Any questions?

Wow interesting ive seen the 1Di6ux address play a few times and have seen him/her lose some substantial coins and also gain as well, Im surprised that their wallet doesnt have more coins in it than 1.6K

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

#843

Quote from: Bugpowder on February 10, 2013, 01:09:51 AM

The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:

Any questions?

Do you have net profit/loss details for each address?

According to the SD website's leaderboard, 1EP4rM is the 2nd biggest net winning overall.

But until very recently, the 1Di6ux address was listed as being in first place, with many less bets than it had actually made, so I don't really trust the leaderboard page.

I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market. My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

Just-Dice

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Bowjob

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 06:31:00 AM

#844

That would be conflict of interest..

It seemed like a good idea at the time.

Ploo

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 02:02:08 PM

#845

Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 08:59:51 PM

Would a flat red line indicate no betting volume for that period?

Bowjob

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 02:06:48 PM

#846

Quote from: Ploo on February 10, 2013, 02:02:08 PM

Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 08:59:51 PM

Would a flat red line indicate no betting volume for that period?

Little to no betting volume, yes.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.

Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 02:48:30 PM

#847

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

It's a bit difficult to determine because they pass the coins around between them, and I don't really want to do a serious analysis. But, looking over the history, it appears to be something along the lines of

Code:

   Starting Remaining
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo 3323 0 BTC
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y    2271 1233 BTC
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV    735 0 BTC
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk 11199 0 BTC
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK 4211 0 BTC
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah    3317 1649 BTC
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ   12200 31 BTC
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric    2500       0 BTC

wtfvanity

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WTF???

Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 04:24:51 PM

#848

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market. My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

But how do you prove it?

WTF! Don't Click Here
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ThickAsThieves

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 04:39:20 PM

#849

Quote from: wtfvanity on February 10, 2013, 04:24:51 PM

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

But how do you prove it?

Torture is probably the only option. Or blackmail maybe. Good luck!

evoorhees

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 07:07:57 PM

#850

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

He wasn't.

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 07:53:06 PM

#851

Quote from: evoorhees on February 10, 2013, 07:07:57 PM

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

He wasn't.

Wouldn't it be possible in theory for him to be the whale and for you to be unaware of the fact?

Quote

Total of 2 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-10 11:49am (up to block 220548)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 80922 | 0 (0.00000) | 79539 | 1383 | 859.06 | 0.01 | 114.72 | 859.04 | 0.002
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3928 | 0 (0.00000) | 3427 | 501 | 67.59 | 0.01 | 17.22 | 67.57 | 0.021
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6311 | 1 (0.00017) | 5885 | 425 | 95.43 | 159.98 | 11.46 | -64.55 | 167.650
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8825 | 3 (0.00036) | 8394 | 428 | 140.72 | 176.03 | 10.03 | -35.30 | 125.092
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11346 | 1 (0.00009) | 10921 | 424 | 388.89 | 4.77 | 22.04 | 384.12 | 1.227
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 13470 | 5 (0.00038) | 13070 | 395 | 768.57 | 733.68 | 1.36 | 34.88 | 95.461
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 15749 | 15 (0.00098) | 15302 | 432 | 1195.50 | 331.68 | 55.74 | 863.82 | 27.744
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17271 | 33 (0.00196) | 16801 | 437 | 2182.82 | 1422.40 | 48.33 | 760.41 | 65.164
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 21150 | 97 (0.00467) | 20673 | 380 | 3873.23 | 6344.68 | 13.18 | -2471.44 | 163.808
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 29331 | 225 (0.00786) | 28416 | 690 | 5460.75 | 5536.22 | 10.00 | -75.47 | 101.382
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 95985 | 1485 (0.01555) | 94038 | 462 | 27934.37 | 23784.68 | 1.98 | 4149.68 | 85.145
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 21402 | 505 (0.02399) | 20546 | 351 | 7444.56 | 8052.43 | 15.07 | -607.87 | 108.165
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 57767 | 1800 (0.03137) | 55578 | 389 | 29262.80 | 26234.40 | 9.33 | 3028.40 | 89.651
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24268 | 1097 (0.04600) | 22750 | 421 | 9005.87 | 9913.69 | 25.13 | -907.81 | 110.080
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30068 | 1825 (0.06146) | 27869 | 374 | 7412.17 | 7228.37 | 31.30 | 183.79 | 97.520
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 38114 | 3539 (0.09386) | 34168 | 407 | 15085.14 | 17073.09 | 7.19 | -1987.94 | 113.178
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 155329 | 19061 (0.12308) | 135806 | 462 | 77562.44 | 76716.98 | 100.29 | 845.45 | 98.910
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 64360 | 11787 (0.18453) | 52089 | 484 | 152739.06 | 155506.75 | 3314.75 | -2767.69 | 101.812
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 195336 | 47509 (0.24384) | 147324 | 503 | 344252.62 | 330337.35 | 2056.21 | 13915.27 | 95.958
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 191006 | 70105 (0.36807) | 120360 | 541 | 554838.51 | 547429.17 | 1013.05 | 7409.33 | 98.665
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 967358 | 471403 (0.48804) | 494505 | 1450 | 797196.64 | 780815.15 | 2924.27 | 16381.49 | 97.945
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 470620 | 234711 (0.49969) | 235000 | 909 | 612473.89 | 599047.38 | 5720.47 | 13426.51 | 97.808
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 284994 | 209192 (0.73545) | 75248 | 554 | 280572.11 | 274047.59 | 5454.95 | 6524.52 | 97.675
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 60546 | 47735 (0.79419) | 12370 | 441 | 56810.60 | 55589.11 | 1187.23 | 1221.48 | 97.850
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 44807 | 37974 (0.85687) | 6343 | 490 | 65535.46 | 65083.88 | 400.32 | 451.58 | 99.311
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 63603 | 57831 (0.91595) | 5307 | 465 | 61019.06 | 60566.42 | 0.25 | 452.63 | 99.258
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13743 | 12664 (0.98019) | 256 | 823 | 22706.33 | 22308.04 | 239.76 | 398.29 | 98.246
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2884877 | 1182663 | 1687482 | 14732 | 657969.55 | 644806.27 | 243.07 | 13163.28 | 97.999
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 102732 | 47940 | 54503 | 289 | 2478914.76 | 2429637.81 | 22562.70 | 49276.94 | 98.012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2987609 | 1230603 | 1741985 | 15021 | 3136884.32 | 3074444.09 | 22805.77 | 62440.23 | 98.009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 62440.23338066 BTC (1.991%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2186.73667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 60253.49670566 BTC (1.921%)
Pending Liabilities: -0.49849999 BTC
Final SD Profit: 60253.99520565 BTC (1.921%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9663919 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5502829 (56.9%)
Blockchain MB: 4124.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 2258.8 (54.8%)

Just-Dice

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kgo

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 08:01:14 PM

#852

And this is about when I start telling myself that we're never going to return to that expected profit line...

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 08:10:24 PM

#853

Quote from: kgo on February 10, 2013, 08:01:14 PM

And this is about when I start telling myself that we're never going to return to that expected profit line...

We're only less than 3000 coins above the expected profit. With a max bet of 500 BTC it wouldn't be particularly unlikely for someone could win 3000 coins.

But for that to happen we need people to start making big bets again...

Just-Dice

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evoorhees

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 08:16:31 PM

#854

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 07:53:06 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on February 10, 2013, 07:07:57 PM

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

He wasn't.

Wouldn't it be possible in theory for him to be the whale and for you to be unaware of the fact?

Yes, in theory. Incredibly unlikely though

ingrownpocket

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 10, 2013, 08:53:53 PM

#855

Quote from: evoorhees on February 10, 2013, 08:16:31 PM

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 07:53:06 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on February 10, 2013, 07:07:57 PM

Quote from: dooglus on February 10, 2013, 03:00:52 AM

My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

He wasn't.

Wouldn't it be possible in theory for him to be the whale and for you to be unaware of the fact?

Yes~~, in theory~~. Incredibly unlikely though

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 11, 2013, 10:30:32 PM

#856

Quote

Total of 116 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-11 01:31pm (up to block 220723)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 81259 | 0 (0.00000) | 79875 | 1384 | 863.74 | 0.01 | 114.73 | 863.72 | 0.002
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3935 | 0 (0.00000) | 3434 | 501 | 67.84 | 0.01 | 17.22 | 67.82 | 0.021
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6316 | 1 (0.00017) | 5889 | 426 | 95.57 | 159.98 | 11.47 | -64.41 | 167.405
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8831 | 3 (0.00036) | 8399 | 429 | 140.91 | 176.03 | 10.04 | -35.11 | 124.923
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11374 | 1 (0.00009) | 10949 | 424 | 392.58 | 4.77 | 22.04 | 387.80 | 1.217
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 13479 | 5 (0.00038) | 13079 | 395 | 769.56 | 733.69 | 1.36 | 35.87 | 95.338
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 15756 | 15 (0.00098) | 15309 | 432 | 1197.10 | 331.69 | 55.74 | 865.40 | 27.708
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17299 | 33 (0.00196) | 16829 | 437 | 2185.00 | 1422.41 | 48.33 | 762.59 | 65.099
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 21566 | 99 (0.00467) | 21087 | 380 | 4267.64 | 6846.16 | 13.18 | -2578.52 | 160.420
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 29579 | 225 (0.00779) | 28664 | 690 | 5559.47 | 5536.61 | 10.00 | 22.85 | 99.589
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 96848 | 1497 (0.01553) | 94887 | 464 | 28095.68 | 23991.90 | 1.99 | 4103.78 | 85.394
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 21407 | 505 (0.02398) | 20551 | 351 | 7444.63 | 8052.43 | 15.07 | -607.80 | 108.164
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 58264 | 1819 (0.03143) | 56055 | 390 | 29308.56 | 26265.87 | 9.34 | 3042.68 | 89.618
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24316 | 1098 (0.04595) | 22797 | 421 | 9009.98 | 9915.82 | 25.13 | -905.83 | 110.054
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30101 | 1827 (0.06146) | 27900 | 374 | 7413.18 | 7232.53 | 31.30 | 180.64 | 97.563
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 38367 | 3555 (0.09366) | 34403 | 409 | 15319.33 | 17296.22 | 7.20 | -1976.89 | 112.905
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 155973 | 19136 (0.12305) | 136375 | 462 | 77652.33 | 76788.61 | 100.29 | 863.72 | 98.888
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 65579 | 12012 (0.18453) | 53083 | 484 | 154196.40 | 156882.95 | 3314.75 | -2686.54 | 101.742
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 197242 | 47972 (0.24384) | 148766 | 504 | 344635.39 | 330673.01 | 2056.21 | 13962.38 | 95.949
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 192427 | 70618 (0.36802) | 121268 | 541 | 555154.48 | 547659.06 | 1013.05 | 7495.42 | 98.650
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 974145 | 474675 (0.48800) | 498017 | 1453 | 800626.68 | 784343.49 | 2924.28 | 16283.19 | 97.966
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 474710 | 236721 (0.49963) | 237075 | 914 | 613942.23 | 600372.65 | 5720.49 | 13569.57 | 97.790
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 286554 | 210342 (0.73546) | 75658 | 554 | 281401.90 | 274857.08 | 5454.95 | 6544.82 | 97.674
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 61451 | 48464 (0.79437) | 12545 | 442 | 56908.11 | 55676.01 | 1187.24 | 1232.09 | 97.835
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 45353 | 38446 (0.85700) | 6415 | 492 | 65701.83 | 65249.71 | 400.32 | 452.12 | 99.312
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 65153 | 59259 (0.91614) | 5424 | 470 | 61532.22 | 61068.19 | 0.25 | 464.03 | 99.246
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13836 | 12747 (0.98016) | 258 | 831 | 22717.78 | 22319.48 | 239.78 | 398.30 | 98.247
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2908012 | 1192954 | 1700293 | 14765 | 663930.23 | 650662.64 | 243.16 | 13267.59 | 98.002
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 103108 | 48121 | 54698 | 289 | 2482670.01 | 2433193.87 | 22562.70 | 49476.13 | 98.007
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3011120 | 1241075 | 1754991 | 15054 | 3146600.25 | 3083856.52 | 22805.86 | 62743.72 | 98.006
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 62743.72958718 BTC (1.994%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2210.31317500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 60533.41641218 BTC (1.924%)
Pending Liabilities: 179.51999891 BTC
Final SD Profit: 60353.89641327 BTC (1.918%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9727927 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5546235 (57.0%)
Blockchain MB: 4152.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 2276.7 (54.8%)

Just-Dice

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 12, 2013, 07:35:17 PM

#857

Quote

Total of 67 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-12 11:31am (up to block 220847)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 81622 | 0 (0.00000) | 80235 | 1387 | 877.06 | 0.01 | 114.73 | 877.04 | 0.002
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3949 | 0 (0.00000) | 3448 | 501 | 68.16 | 0.01 | 17.22 | 68.14 | 0.021
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6333 | 1 (0.00017) | 5906 | 426 | 95.92 | 159.98 | 11.47 | -64.06 | 166.794
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8898 | 3 (0.00035) | 8465 | 430 | 147.30 | 176.03 | 10.04 | -28.72 | 119.503
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11391 | 1 (0.00009) | 10966 | 424 | 394.07 | 4.77 | 22.04 | 389.29 | 1.212
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 13496 | 5 (0.00038) | 13096 | 395 | 770.21 | 733.69 | 1.36 | 36.52 | 95.258
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 15804 | 15 (0.00098) | 15355 | 434 | 1198.00 | 331.69 | 55.75 | 866.30 | 27.687
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17369 | 33 (0.00195) | 16898 | 438 | 2186.80 | 1422.41 | 48.33 | 764.38 | 65.045
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 21615 | 99 (0.00466) | 21136 | 380 | 4270.50 | 6846.16 | 13.18 | -2575.66 | 160.313
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 29700 | 229 (0.00789) | 28781 | 690 | 5562.05 | 5552.85 | 10.00 | 9.19 | 99.835
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 98099 | 1522 (0.01559) | 96113 | 464 | 28527.04 | 24673.51 | 1.99 | 3853.52 | 86.492
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 21420 | 505 (0.02397) | 20564 | 351 | 7444.86 | 8052.43 | 15.07 | -607.57 | 108.161
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 58764 | 1832 (0.03138) | 56542 | 390 | 29423.00 | 26356.09 | 9.34 | 3066.91 | 89.576
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24333 | 1098 (0.04592) | 22814 | 421 | 9011.30 | 9915.83 | 25.13 | -904.52 | 110.038
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30131 | 1829 (0.06147) | 27927 | 375 | 7414.48 | 7233.65 | 31.30 | 180.82 | 97.561
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 38643 | 3577 (0.09356) | 34656 | 410 | 15522.37 | 17386.66 | 7.20 | -1864.29 | 112.010
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 156391 | 19185 (0.12304) | 136744 | 462 | 77794.63 | 76900.35 | 100.29 | 894.28 | 98.850
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 66019 | 12094 (0.18455) | 53440 | 485 | 154469.24 | 157145.73 | 3314.75 | -2676.49 | 101.733
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 199142 | 48473 (0.24403) | 150162 | 507 | 345041.71 | 331109.87 | 2056.22 | 13931.83 | 95.962
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 193422 | 70994 (0.36808) | 121885 | 543 | 555475.48 | 548025.70 | 1013.07 | 7449.78 | 98.659
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 979381 | 477222 (0.48799) | 500705 | 1454 | 802914.64 | 786811.16 | 2924.28 | 16103.48 | 97.994
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 477593 | 238166 (0.49964) | 238508 | 919 | 616469.52 | 602944.96 | 5720.52 | 13524.56 | 97.806
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 288093 | 211432 (0.73532) | 76107 | 554 | 281911.03 | 275346.67 | 5454.95 | 6564.35 | 97.671
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 61698 | 48663 (0.79446) | 12590 | 445 | 56939.77 | 55707.71 | 1187.25 | 1232.05 | 97.836
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 46044 | 39026 (0.85677) | 6524 | 494 | 66212.18 | 65779.05 | 400.32 | 433.13 | 99.346
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 66433 | 60433 (0.91619) | 5528 | 472 | 61787.74 | 61314.90 | 0.26 | 472.84 | 99.235
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13905 | 12808 (0.98010) | 260 | 837 | 22752.26 | 22354.06 | 239.79 | 398.20 | 98.250
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2926250 | 1200948 | 1710503 | 14799 | 668139.52 | 654905.90 | 243.26 | 13233.62 | 98.019
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 103438 | 48297 | 54852 | 289 | 2486541.91 | 2437380.17 | 22562.70 | 49161.74 | 98.023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3029688 | 1249245 | 1765355 | 15088 | 3154681.44 | 3092286.08 | 22805.97 | 62395.36 | 98.022
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 62395.36192597 BTC (1.978%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2228.95797500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 60166.40395097 BTC (1.907%)
Pending Liabilities: -0.50873741 BTC
Final SD Profit: 60166.91268838 BTC (1.907%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9780830 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5580514 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 4175.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 2290.9 (54.9%)

Just-Dice

Play or Invest

1% House Edge

dooglus

Legendary

Offline

Activity: 2940
Merit: 1334

Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 13, 2013, 10:08:08 PM

#858

Quote

Total of 50 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-13 01:45pm (up to block 221026)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 82188 | 0 (0.00000) | 80800 | 1388 | 886.04 | 0.01 | 115.29 | 886.02 | 0.002
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3954 | 0 (0.00000) | 3452 | 502 | 68.47 | 0.01 | 17.22 | 68.45 | 0.021
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6340 | 1 (0.00017) | 5913 | 426 | 96.26 | 159.98 | 11.47 | -63.72 | 166.205
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8906 | 3 (0.00035) | 8473 | 430 | 147.66 | 176.03 | 10.04 | -28.36 | 119.211
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11396 | 1 (0.00009) | 10971 | 424 | 394.30 | 4.77 | 22.04 | 389.52 | 1.212
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 13501 | 5 (0.00038) | 13101 | 395 | 770.50 | 733.69 | 1.36 | 36.81 | 95.222
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 15814 | 15 (0.00098) | 15365 | 434 | 1198.50 | 331.69 | 55.75 | 866.80 | 27.676
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17422 | 33 (0.00194) | 16951 | 438 | 2188.33 | 1422.41 | 48.33 | 765.92 | 65.000
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 21693 | 99 (0.00465) | 21213 | 381 | 4274.20 | 6846.17 | 13.18 | -2571.97 | 160.174
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 29825 | 229 (0.00786) | 28906 | 690 | 5569.71 | 5552.86 | 10.00 | 16.84 | 99.698
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 98855 | 1528 (0.01553) | 96863 | 464 | 28696.58 | 24746.90 | 1.99 | 3949.67 | 86.236
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 21426 | 505 (0.02396) | 20570 | 351 | 7445.03 | 8052.43 | 15.07 | -607.40 | 108.159
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 59284 | 1845 (0.03133) | 57049 | 390 | 29567.31 | 26439.18 | 9.34 | 3128.13 | 89.420
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24407 | 1099 (0.04582) | 22886 | 422 | 9017.27 | 9916.26 | 25.14 | -898.98 | 109.970
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30158 | 1830 (0.06145) | 27951 | 377 | 7423.19 | 7241.69 | 31.31 | 181.50 | 97.555
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 38773 | 3585 (0.09345) | 34778 | 410 | 15550.14 | 17389.84 | 7.20 | -1839.69 | 111.831
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 156805 | 19234 (0.12303) | 137108 | 463 | 77960.97 | 77009.68 | 100.30 | 951.28 | 98.780
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 66926 | 12258 (0.18451) | 54179 | 489 | 154656.53 | 157317.36 | 3314.76 | -2660.83 | 101.720
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 201187 | 48949 (0.24392) | 151731 | 507 | 346001.13 | 331980.80 | 2056.22 | 14020.33 | 95.948
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 194668 | 71467 (0.36815) | 122658 | 543 | 555786.21 | 548336.38 | 1013.07 | 7449.83 | 98.660
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 988735 | 481732 (0.48794) | 505548 | 1455 | 808292.12 | 792059.55 | 2924.28 | 16232.56 | 97.992
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 480265 | 239470 (0.49958) | 239869 | 926 | 618110.47 | 604405.64 | 5720.53 | 13704.82 | 97.783
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 289899 | 212767 (0.73535) | 76576 | 556 | 282644.35 | 276118.51 | 5454.95 | 6525.83 | 97.691
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 62815 | 49544 (0.79436) | 12826 | 445 | 57383.79 | 56167.09 | 1187.25 | 1216.69 | 97.880
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 46675 | 39562 (0.85671) | 6617 | 496 | 67458.28 | 67046.39 | 400.33 | 411.89 | 99.389
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 67496 | 61407 (0.91621) | 5616 | 473 | 62185.74 | 61698.84 | 0.27 | 486.89 | 99.217
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 14015 | 12907 (0.98003) | 263 | 845 | 22842.02 | 22443.14 | 239.80 | 398.87 | 98.254
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2949367 | 1211422 | 1723114 | 14831 | 672793.37 | 659232.07 | 243.89 | 13561.29 | 97.984
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 104061 | 48653 | 55119 | 289 | 2493821.85 | 2444365.39 | 22562.70 | 49456.45 | 98.017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3053428 | 1260075 | 1778233 | 15120 | 3166615.22 | 3103597.46 | 22806.59 | 63017.75 | 98.010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 63017.75354093 BTC (1.990%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2252.76717500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 60764.98636593 BTC (1.919%)
Pending Liabilities: -95.85237926 BTC
Final SD Profit: 60860.83874519 BTC (1.922%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9846300 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5625664 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 4204.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 2309.3 (54.9%)

Just-Dice

Play or Invest

1% House Edge

dooglus

Legendary

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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1334

Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 14, 2013, 06:42:14 PM

#859

Quote

Total of 14 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-14 10:37am (up to block 221164)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 82583 | 0 (0.00000) | 81194 | 1389 | 898.05 | 0.01 | 115.29 | 898.03 | 0.002
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3964 | 0 (0.00000) | 3462 | 502 | 68.75 | 0.01 | 17.22 | 68.74 | 0.021
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6346 | 1 (0.00017) | 5918 | 427 | 96.54 | 159.98 | 11.47 | -63.44 | 165.723
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8911 | 3 (0.00035) | 8477 | 431 | 147.89 | 176.03 | 10.04 | -28.13 | 119.026
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 11400 | 1 (0.00009) | 10975 | 424 | 394.52 | 4.77 | 22.04 | 389.74 | 1.211
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 13505 | 5 (0.00038) | 13104 | 396 | 770.80 | 733.69 | 1.36 | 37.11 | 95.185
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 15928 | 15 (0.00097) | 15478 | 435 | 1203.38 | 331.69 | 55.75 | 871.68 | 27.564
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 17569 | 33 (0.00193) | 17097 | 439 | 2192.24 | 1422.41 | 48.33 | 769.82 | 64.884
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 21802 | 99 (0.00462) | 21322 | 381 | 4277.82 | 6846.17 | 13.18 | -2568.35 | 160.039
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 29941 | 230 (0.00786) | 29020 | 691 | 5573.93 | 5565.36 | 10.00 | 8.57 | 99.846
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 99151 | 1533 (0.01553) | 97154 | 464 | 28758.40 | 24789.36 | 1.99 | 3969.03 | 86.199
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 21428 | 505 (0.02396) | 20572 | 351 | 7445.20 | 8052.43 | 15.07 | -607.23 | 108.156
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 59515 | 1851 (0.03131) | 57274 | 390 | 29639.09 | 26496.37 | 9.34 | 3142.72 | 89.397
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 24416 | 1100 (0.04584) | 22894 | 422 | 9017.90 | 9916.50 | 25.14 | -898.60 | 109.965
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 30161 | 1831 (0.06148) | 27953 | 377 | 7423.69 | 7242.49 | 31.31 | 181.20 | 97.559
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 38889 | 3594 (0.09340) | 34884 | 411 | 15586.71 | 17400.66 | 7.20 | -1813.94 | 111.638
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 157299 | 19290 (0.12300) | 137545 | 464 | 78196.89 | 77235.04 | 100.31 | 961.85 | 98.770
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 67757 | 12426 (0.18473) | 54840 | 491 | 154935.70 | 157619.81 | 3314.76 | -2684.10 | 101.732
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 202323 | 49186 (0.24372) | 152629 | 508 | 346481.69 | 332312.73 | 2056.22 | 14168.96 | 95.911
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 195724 | 71875 (0.36825) | 123304 | 545 | 556245.87 | 548823.83 | 1013.08 | 7422.04 | 98.666
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 992089 | 483387 (0.48796) | 507243 | 1459 | 810639.79 | 794237.72 | 2924.29 | 16402.06 | 97.977
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 482874 | 240838 (0.49972) | 241105 | 931 | 619293.44 | 605449.54 | 5720.54 | 13843.89 | 97.765
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 290829 | 213458 (0.73537) | 76813 | 558 | 282890.81 | 276358.22 | 5454.95 | 6532.59 | 97.691
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 63303 | 49937 (0.79445) | 12920 | 446 | 57510.80 | 56299.79 | 1187.25 | 1211.00 | 97.894
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 47460 | 40245 (0.85699) | 6716 | 499 | 67685.78 | 67277.97 | 400.34 | 407.81 | 99.397
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 68583 | 62417 (0.91643) | 5692 | 474 | 62824.41 | 62319.87 | 0.27 | 504.53 | 99.197
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 14117 | 13004 (0.98018) | 263 | 850 | 22923.65 | 22525.09 | 239.80 | 398.56 | 98.261
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2963576 | 1218085 | 1730625 | 14866 | 676978.80 | 663294.26 | 243.97 | 13684.53 | 97.979
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 104291 | 48779 | 55223 | 289 | 2496145.07 | 2446303.40 | 22562.70 | 49841.67 | 98.003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3067867 | 1266864 | 1785848 | 15155 | 3173123.87 | 3109597.67 | 22806.67 | 63526.20 | 97.998
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 63526.20766314 BTC (2.002%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2267.22077500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 61258.98688814 BTC (1.931%)
Pending Liabilities: -6.38088999 BTC
Final SD Profit: 61265.36777813 BTC (1.931%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9889419 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5653266 (57.2%)
Blockchain MB: 4223.2 : SatoshiDice MB: 2320.5 (54.9%)

Just-Dice

Play or Invest

1% House Edge

ThickAsThieves

Hero Member

Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500

Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

February 14, 2013, 07:30:03 PM

#860

thank you, dooglus

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