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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis (Read 192938 times)

Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 17, 2013, 01:40:17 PM

#701

THE WHALES HAVE RETURNED!

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=300&min_bet=10&status=ALL

Bowjob

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 17, 2013, 03:09:02 PM

#702

hah time for some whale oil

It seemed like a good idea at the time.

dandirk

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 17, 2013, 08:11:45 PM

#703

I think I must have the worst statistics or luck...

Placed 10 bets in either 91 or 97%, didn't win a single one. I would almost think that would be statistically worthy of a loser pay out lol.

The odd thing is, I was unable to find my bets/results on the site (via lookup query and 7 digits of my blockchain wallet, 1DyvXuXwBBQMBNHE8HbuAikzRG7akdnq2R).

Checked blockchain.info and other bets were payed out from seconds to 8min or so...

Carnth

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 17, 2013, 08:25:31 PM

#704

Quote from: dandirk on January 17, 2013, 08:11:45 PM

At the time I am replying to you...
Your address had 10 BTC sent to it. Then you placed your first bet using this unconfirmed transaction. Change was returned to the same address.
Then all other bets were place with the same unconfirmed transactions.

First, I would wait for a few confirmations. You might find out that you won after all.
Bets sent from unconfirmed transactions don't show up on the site and are held until it does confirm.

And, it looks like you can thank Mt Gox for not including any TX fee on your first transaction. You might have to wait a while.

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 18, 2013, 01:14:37 AM
Last edit: January 18, 2013, 11:44:40 AM by dooglus

#705

Quote

Total of 63 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-17 05:12pm (up to block 216953)

   Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 68806 | 0 (0.00000) | 67594 | 1212 | 634.81 | 0.01 | 93.01 | 634.79 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3647 | 0 (0.00000) | 3155 | 492 | 55.74 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 55.74 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5736 | 1 (0.00019) | 5316 | 419 | 77.92 | 159.96 | 8.46 | -82.03 | 205.273
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8319 | 2 (0.00025) | 7896 | 421 | 119.60 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 103.51 | 13.453
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10097 | 1 (0.00010) | 9688 | 408 | 288.60 | 4.51 | 18.65 | 284.08 | 1.565
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 10831 | 3 (0.00029) | 10437 | 391 | 572.78 | 303.51 | 1.36 | 269.26 | 52.990
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12793 | 12 (0.00097) | 12381 | 400 | 820.08 | 155.69 | 55.70 | 664.39 | 18.985
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15773 | 30 (0.00195) | 15316 | 427 | 1894.45 | 1373.98 | 48.31 | 520.46 | 72.527
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17527 | 74 (0.00431) | 17078 | 375 | 2185.89 | 3275.17 | 13.16 | -1089.27 | 149.832
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25964 | 193 (0.00763) | 25096 | 675 | 4334.12 | 3975.74 | 9.96 | 358.38 | 91.731
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 77949 | 1188 (0.01533) | 76322 | 439 | 19579.96 | 17221.25 | 1.91 | 2358.71 | 87.953
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20076 | 470 (0.02383) | 19257 | 349 | 6406.22 | 6449.67 | 15.07 | -43.45 | 100.678
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 46725 | 1448 (0.03124) | 44900 | 377 | 20918.86 | 18742.12 | 9.31 | 2176.73 | 89.594
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23227 | 1055 (0.04624) | 21760 | 412 | 8416.25 | 9468.79 | 25.10 | -1052.53 | 112.506
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28860 | 1748 (0.06134) | 26748 | 364 | 6308.50 | 5953.21 | 31.26 | 355.29 | 94.368
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 33820 | 3140 (0.09392) | 30292 | 388 | 13627.91 | 15172.47 | 7.11 | -1544.56 | 111.334
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 138110 | 16959 (0.12318) | 120714 | 437 | 54241.07 | 52803.97 | 100.19 | 1437.10 | 97.351
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 53823 | 9887 (0.18516) | 43510 | 426 | 86187.07 | 84232.27 | 3314.64 | 1954.79 | 97.732
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 165833 | 40322 (0.24383) | 125049 | 462 | 186831.28 | 186955.15 | 1617.03 | -123.86 | 100.066
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 149159 | 54719 (0.36807) | 93945 | 495 | 185897.77 | 182732.65 | 1012.90 | 3165.12 | 98.297
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 873455 | 425944 (0.48842) | 446137 | 1374 | 577101.22 | 568327.81 | 2924.01 | 8773.41 | 98.480
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 392564 | 195641 (0.49940) | 196108 | 815 | 413821.19 | 403960.86 | 5720.21 | 9860.33 | 97.617
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 253649 | 186262 (0.73581) | 66875 | 512 | 248029.99 | 242441.36 | 5454.79 | 5588.63 | 97.747
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 47106 | 37105 (0.79447) | 9599 | 402 | 49507.15 | 48531.50 | 1187.14 | 975.64 | 98.029
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 35353 | 29872 (0.85556) | 5043 | 438 | 46473.18 | 45862.26 | 400.14 | 610.91 | 98.685
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 45169 | 40987 (0.91593) | 3762 | 420 | 52017.71 | 51647.47 | 0.13 | 370.24 | 99.288
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12235 | 11346 (0.98106) | 219 | 670 | 21714.49 | 21350.54 | 239.50 | 363.95 | 98.324
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2494277 | 1018480 | 1462085 | 13712 | 569705.00 | 557579.00 | 211.74 | 12126.00 | 97.872
   big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 82329 | 39929 | 42112 | 288 | 1438358.96 | 1413539.12 | 22123.70 | 24819.84 | 98.274
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   | 2576606 | 1058409 | 1504197 | 14000 | 2008063.97 | 1971118.12 | 22335.44 | 36945.84 | 98.160
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 36945.84613213 BTC (1.840%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1772.53127500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 35173.31485713 BTC (1.752%)
Pending Liabilities: 7.15822324 BTC
Final SD Profit: 35166.15663389 BTC (1.751%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8440955 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4740761 (56.2%)
Blockchain MB: 3592.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 1945.8 (54.2%)

Just-Dice

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legitnick

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 18, 2013, 10:19:44 AM

#706

What's stopping the person who runs SD from placing large amounts of bets to make it look like the odds are really what they are but in the end making it less likely for the end user to actually win?

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organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 18, 2013, 10:31:02 AM
Last edit: January 18, 2013, 11:53:49 AM by organofcorti

#707

As usual, thanks for the time you put into this, dooglus.

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 18, 2013, 11:49:29 AM

#708

Quote from: legitnick on January 18, 2013, 10:19:44 AM

What's stopping the person who runs SD from placing large amounts of bets to make it look like the odds are really what they are but in the end making it less likely for the end user to actually win?

Nothing stops the owners playing their own game. They can even tell before placing a bet whether it will win or not, and decide not to place the losing ones.

What the can't do is make your bets lose more than they should, since the result of your bet is determined in an exact way from the days secret (known only to the site) and your bet's transaction ID and its output number within that transaction.

In other words, there's nothing to stop them placing their own bets (to cheat their shareholders, perhaps), but the laws of mathematics stop them cheating their end users.

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 18, 2013, 08:32:25 PM

#709

Quote from: organofcorti on January 18, 2013, 10:31:02 AM

As usual, thanks for the time you put into this, dooglus.

You're welcome. Thanks for temporarily reposting yesterday's report with the correct font!

Quote

Total of 8 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-18 12:29pm (up to block 217054)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 69036 | 0 (0.00000) | 67813 | 1223 | 638.95 | 0.01 | 93.22 | 638.93 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3657 | 0 (0.00000) | 3165 | 492 | 55.93 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 55.93 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5746 | 1 (0.00019) | 5326 | 419 | 78.20 | 159.96 | 8.46 | -81.75 | 204.538
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8327 | 2 (0.00025) | 7904 | 421 | 119.68 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 103.59 | 13.444
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10102 | 1 (0.00010) | 9692 | 409 | 288.68 | 4.51 | 18.65 | 284.16 | 1.564
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 10840 | 3 (0.00029) | 10446 | 391 | 573.00 | 303.51 | 1.36 | 269.48 | 52.970
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12904 | 12 (0.00096) | 12491 | 401 | 821.59 | 155.69 | 55.71 | 665.90 | 18.950
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15792 | 30 (0.00195) | 15335 | 427 | 1900.13 | 1374.01 | 48.31 | 526.12 | 72.311
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17631 | 74 (0.00429) | 17182 | 375 | 2187.02 | 3275.17 | 13.16 | -1088.14 | 149.754
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26013 | 193 (0.00762) | 25145 | 675 | 4335.66 | 3975.74 | 9.96 | 359.91 | 91.699
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 78158 | 1191 (0.01532) | 76527 | 440 | 19702.77 | 17235.24 | 1.91 | 2467.53 | 87.476
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20103 | 470 (0.02379) | 19284 | 349 | 6406.58 | 6449.67 | 15.07 | -43.09 | 100.673
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 46996 | 1455 (0.03121) | 45164 | 377 | 21221.11 | 18809.09 | 9.31 | 2412.02 | 88.634
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23259 | 1056 (0.04622) | 21791 | 412 | 8417.50 | 9469.01 | 25.10 | -1051.50 | 112.492
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28881 | 1749 (0.06133) | 26767 | 365 | 6308.76 | 5953.36 | 31.27 | 355.39 | 94.367
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 33971 | 3156 (0.09398) | 30426 | 389 | 13694.14 | 15231.13 | 7.12 | -1536.99 | 111.224
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 138414 | 16982 (0.12308) | 120994 | 438 | 54908.18 | 53046.35 | 100.19 | 1861.83 | 96.609
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 54123 | 9937 (0.18506) | 43759 | 427 | 87765.54 | 84966.31 | 3314.64 | 2799.23 | 96.811
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 166507 | 40474 (0.24376) | 125568 | 465 | 189094.08 | 189494.73 | 2056.04 | -400.64 | 100.212
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 150076 | 55052 (0.36805) | 94527 | 497 | 187994.79 | 185596.09 | 1012.91 | 2398.70 | 98.724
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 876499 | 427417 (0.48841) | 447704 | 1378 | 579146.64 | 570362.73 | 2924.03 | 8783.90 | 98.483
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 394882 | 196830 (0.49949) | 197230 | 822 | 415461.28 | 405870.42 | 5720.23 | 9590.85 | 97.692
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 255453 | 187607 (0.73589) | 67331 | 515 | 248851.30 | 243309.66 | 5454.80 | 5541.64 | 97.773
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 47985 | 37802 (0.79449) | 9778 | 405 | 49715.79 | 48741.29 | 1187.15 | 974.50 | 98.040
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 35510 | 29995 (0.85536) | 5072 | 443 | 48686.69 | 48020.32 | 400.15 | 666.36 | 98.631
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 45535 | 41321 (0.91596) | 3791 | 423 | 52157.63 | 51784.78 | 0.14 | 372.84 | 99.285
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12286 | 11389 (0.98105) | 220 | 677 | 21724.07 | 21359.98 | 239.52 | 364.09 | 98.324
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2506008 | 1024108 | 1468134 | 13766 | 572657.65 | 560393.26 | 212.06 | 12264.38 | 97.858
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 82678 | 40091 | 42298 | 289 | 1449598.19 | 1424571.71 | 22562.70 | 25026.47 | 98.274
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2588686 | 1064199 | 1510432 | 14055 | 2022255.84 | 1984964.98 | 22774.76 | 37290.86 | 98.156
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 37290.86132760 BTC (1.844%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1784.68387500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 35506.17745260 BTC (1.756%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.76647025 BTC
Final SD Profit: 35505.41098235 BTC (1.756%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8479897 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4763365 (56.2%)
Blockchain MB: 3610.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 1955.1 (54.2%)

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organofcorti

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 18, 2013, 11:32:00 PM

#710

dooglus, does etotheipi's software recorded the bet size in more groups than > 4 btc and < 4 btc ? It would be interesting to see the distribution of bet size and how it changes over time.

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 19, 2013, 06:52:12 PM

#711

Quote from: Bowjob on January 19, 2013, 01:21:20 AM

I was playing dice earlier and to my horror, the fee was 0.0335 BTC.. WTF??

The satoshi client has this code to calculate the required fee:

Code:

int64 nMinFee = (1 + (int64)nBytes 1000) * nBaseFee;

nBaseFee is 0.0005 BTC. So that's saying the fee is 0.0005 BTC per 1000 bytes (or part 1000 bytes) of transaction size.

0.0335 0.0005 = 67, so I'm guessing your transaction was between 66001 and 67000 bytes.

Probably you spent hundreds of tiny amounts in a single transaction. Maybe all you had left in your wallet was all the dust you got back from previous losing satoshidice bets.

I just checked the blockchain. There have been 17 satoshidice bets with 0.0335 BTC fees paid in the last day or so. 16 of them look like they're from the same person who just chose to pay a big fee for some reason: 1, 2, 3 are some examples. The 17th is probably yours, here, but it's not as big as I thought it would be, so I don't understand why the fee is so high.

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 19, 2013, 06:57:04 PM

#712

Quote

Results: 2013-Jan-19 10:44am (up to block 217186)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 72963 | 0 (0.00000) | 71738 | 1225 | 686.30 | 0.01 | 94.22 | 686.28 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3674 | 0 (0.00000) | 3182 | 492 | 56.18 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 56.18 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5755 | 1 (0.00019) | 5335 | 419 | 78.30 | 159.96 | 8.46 | -81.65 | 204.277
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8440 | 3 (0.00037) | 8016 | 421 | 121.87 | 175.99 | 10.02 | -54.12 | 144.410
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10169 | 1 (0.00010) | 9759 | 409 | 290.66 | 4.51 | 18.65 | 286.15 | 1.554
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 10984 | 3 (0.00028) | 10590 | 391 | 576.18 | 303.51 | 1.36 | 272.66 | 52.677
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12935 | 12 (0.00096) | 12522 | 401 | 823.56 | 155.69 | 55.71 | 667.86 | 18.905
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15847 | 30 (0.00195) | 15389 | 428 | 1901.66 | 1374.01 | 48.31 | 527.65 | 72.253
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17662 | 75 (0.00434) | 17212 | 375 | 2188.40 | 3287.66 | 13.16 | -1099.25 | 150.231
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26040 | 193 (0.00761) | 25171 | 676 | 4336.16 | 3975.74 | 9.96 | 360.41 | 91.688
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 79288 | 1208 (0.01532) | 77639 | 441 | 19902.16 | 17360.56 | 1.91 | 2541.60 | 87.230
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20112 | 470 (0.02378) | 19293 | 349 | 6406.82 | 6449.67 | 15.07 | -42.85 | 100.669
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 47703 | 1473 (0.03112) | 45853 | 377 | 21362.10 | 18879.12 | 9.31 | 2482.98 | 88.377
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23289 | 1058 (0.04625) | 21818 | 413 | 8420.95 | 9479.68 | 25.10 | -1058.73 | 112.573
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28894 | 1751 (0.06138) | 26778 | 365 | 6309.24 | 5954.02 | 31.27 | 355.22 | 94.370
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 34010 | 3162 (0.09405) | 30458 | 390 | 13710.45 | 15270.35 | 7.12 | -1559.89 | 111.377
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 139207 | 17074 (0.12304) | 121695 | 438 | 55208.16 | 53189.21 | 100.19 | 2018.95 | 96.343
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 54474 | 10000 (0.18503) | 44046 | 428 | 88072.01 | 85305.86 | 3314.64 | 2766.14 | 96.859
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 167394 | 40697 (0.24380) | 126230 | 467 | 189547.16 | 189924.73 | 2056.04 | -377.57 | 100.199
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 152333 | 55912 (0.36825) | 95921 | 500 | 189365.21 | 186969.14 | 1012.91 | 2396.07 | 98.735
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 879879 | 429096 (0.48844) | 449403 | 1380 | 581825.48 | 572534.91 | 2924.03 | 9290.57 | 98.403
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 396559 | 197655 (0.49947) | 198075 | 829 | 417799.90 | 407898.79 | 5720.25 | 9901.10 | 97.630
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 256463 | 188334 (0.73583) | 67613 | 516 | 254071.99 | 248450.96 | 5454.80 | 5621.02 | 97.788
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 48569 | 38268 (0.79462) | 9891 | 410 | 49804.85 | 48831.31 | 1187.16 | 973.54 | 98.045
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 35713 | 30176 (0.85557) | 5094 | 443 | 48899.85 | 48263.83 | 400.15 | 636.01 | 98.699
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 46301 | 42019 (0.91591) | 3858 | 424 | 52335.62 | 51960.91 | 0.14 | 374.71 | 99.284
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12321 | 11419 (0.98110) | 220 | 682 | 21737.38 | 21373.33 | 239.52 | 364.04 | 98.325
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2524015 | 1029879 | 1480336 | 13800 | 575657.47 | 563487.79 | 213.12 | 12169.68 | 97.886
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 82963 | 40211 | 42463 | 289 | 1460181.27 | 1434045.81 | 22562.70 | 26135.46 | 98.210
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2606978 | 1070090 | 1522799 | 14089 | 2035838.75 | 1997533.60 | 22775.83 | 38305.15 | 98.118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 38305.15491667 BTC (1.882%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1803.04317500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 36502.11174167 BTC (1.793%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.66213367 BTC
Final SD Profit: 36501.44960800 BTC (1.793%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8532274 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4798159 (56.2%)
Blockchain MB: 3632.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 1968.9 (54.2%)

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 20, 2013, 09:51:42 PM

#713

Quote

Total of 4 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-20 01:47pm (up to block 217339)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 73131 | 0 (0.00000) | 71900 | 1231 | 688.46 | 0.01 | 94.23 | 688.44 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3693 | 0 (0.00000) | 3200 | 493 | 56.58 | 0.00 | 16.53 | 56.57 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5779 | 1 (0.00019) | 5359 | 419 | 79.36 | 159.96 | 8.46 | -80.59 | 201.549
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8479 | 3 (0.00037) | 8054 | 422 | 123.48 | 176.00 | 10.02 | -52.51 | 142.529
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10189 | 1 (0.00010) | 9778 | 410 | 291.98 | 4.51 | 18.65 | 287.47 | 1.547
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 10998 | 3 (0.00028) | 10604 | 391 | 577.97 | 303.52 | 1.36 | 274.44 | 52.515
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13011 | 12 (0.00095) | 12597 | 402 | 830.88 | 155.70 | 55.71 | 675.17 | 18.740
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15876 | 30 (0.00194) | 15418 | 428 | 1909.86 | 1374.04 | 48.31 | 535.82 | 71.945
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17680 | 76 (0.00439) | 17229 | 375 | 2201.36 | 3537.57 | 13.16 | -1336.20 | 160.699
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26140 | 193 (0.00758) | 25269 | 678 | 4364.35 | 3975.87 | 9.96 | 388.48 | 91.099
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 80031 | 1219 (0.01532) | 78370 | 442 | 19975.28 | 17385.11 | 1.92 | 2590.17 | 87.033
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20156 | 471 (0.02378) | 19336 | 349 | 6443.00 | 6454.10 | 15.07 | -11.10 | 100.172
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 48015 | 1483 (0.03113) | 46155 | 377 | 21462.65 | 19279.64 | 9.31 | 2183.00 | 89.829
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23331 | 1062 (0.04634) | 21855 | 414 | 8479.38 | 9718.28 | 25.10 | -1238.90 | 114.611
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28937 | 1756 (0.06146) | 26815 | 366 | 6434.03 | 6092.14 | 31.27 | 341.88 | 94.686
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 34064 | 3166 (0.09402) | 30508 | 390 | 13826.62 | 15401.07 | 7.12 | -1574.45 | 111.387
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 139773 | 17147 (0.12306) | 122187 | 439 | 55461.05 | 53697.84 | 100.19 | 1763.20 | 96.821
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 54754 | 10040 (0.18481) | 44285 | 429 | 88432.89 | 85835.27 | 3314.64 | 2597.62 | 97.063
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 168199 | 40878 (0.24371) | 126854 | 467 | 190083.58 | 190439.23 | 2056.04 | -355.65 | 100.187
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 154627 | 56737 (0.36813) | 97387 | 503 | 193726.17 | 191646.89 | 1012.92 | 2079.27 | 98.927
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 883685 | 430948 (0.48844) | 451353 | 1384 | 583097.25 | 573648.84 | 2924.04 | 9448.40 | 98.380
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 399218 | 198991 (0.49950) | 199393 | 834 | 418586.11 | 408593.64 | 5720.26 | 9992.47 | 97.613
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 257961 | 189434 (0.73583) | 68008 | 519 | 254881.21 | 249265.63 | 5454.82 | 5615.57 | 97.797
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 48937 | 38556 (0.79459) | 9967 | 414 | 50028.16 | 49060.49 | 1187.16 | 967.67 | 98.066
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 35860 | 30302 (0.85563) | 5113 | 445 | 49282.98 | 48657.34 | 400.16 | 625.64 | 98.731
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 46899 | 42555 (0.91565) | 3920 | 424 | 52520.15 | 52135.97 | 0.14 | 384.17 | 99.269
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12371 | 11454 (0.98115) | 220 | 697 | 21776.89 | 21413.00 | 239.55 | 363.88 | 98.329
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2538249 | 1036077 | 1488319 | 13853 | 579170.22 | 567141.64 | 213.53 | 12028.58 | 97.923
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 83545 | 40441 | 42815 | 289 | 1466451.59 | 1441270.15 | 22562.70 | 25181.43 | 98.283
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2621794 | 1076518 | 1531134 | 14142 | 2045621.82 | 2008411.80 | 22776.23 | 37210.01 | 98.181
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 37210.01794633 BTC (1.819%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1817.90177500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 35392.11617133 BTC (1.730%)
Pending Liabilities: -1.29542998 BTC
Final SD Profit: 35393.41160131 BTC (1.730%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8579833 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4825802 (56.2%)
Blockchain MB: 3652.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 1980.1 (54.2%)

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 21, 2013, 09:22:34 PM
Last edit: January 22, 2013, 07:11:33 PM by dooglus

#714

Quote

Total of 91 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-21 01:17pm (up to block 217471)

   Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 73505 | 0 (0.00000) | 72273 | 1232 | 693.42 | 0.01 | 94.23 | 693.40 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3698 | 0 (0.00000) | 3205 | 493 | 56.63 | 0.00 | 16.53 | 56.62 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5786 | 1 (0.00019) | 5366 | 419 | 79.46 | 159.96 | 8.46 | -80.49 | 201.295
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8489 | 3 (0.00037) | 8063 | 423 | 123.59 | 176.00 | 10.02 | -52.40 | 142.402
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10232 | 1 (0.00010) | 9820 | 411 | 293.34 | 4.51 | 18.66 | 288.82 | 1.541
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11030 | 3 (0.00028) | 10636 | 391 | 578.91 | 303.52 | 1.36 | 275.38 | 52.430
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13040 | 12 (0.00095) | 12626 | 402 | 832.14 | 155.70 | 55.71 | 676.43 | 18.712
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15889 | 30 (0.00194) | 15429 | 430 | 1912.09 | 1374.05 | 48.32 | 538.04 | 71.861
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17687 | 76 (0.00439) | 17236 | 375 | 2203.49 | 3537.58 | 13.16 | -1334.08 | 160.544
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26181 | 196 (0.00769) | 25307 | 678 | 4368.32 | 3992.12 | 9.96 | 376.19 | 91.388
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 80338 | 1226 (0.01535) | 78668 | 444 | 20007.19 | 17413.95 | 1.92 | 2593.24 | 87.038
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20159 | 471 (0.02378) | 19339 | 349 | 6448.30 | 6454.13 | 15.07 | -5.83 | 100.090
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 48257 | 1490 (0.03112) | 46390 | 377 | 21494.44 | 19304.43 | 9.31 | 2190.01 | 89.811
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23346 | 1063 (0.04635) | 21869 | 414 | 8489.23 | 9739.64 | 25.10 | -1250.41 | 114.729
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28970 | 1756 (0.06139) | 26848 | 366 | 6443.17 | 6092.18 | 31.27 | 350.98 | 94.553
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 34081 | 3168 (0.09403) | 30523 | 390 | 13841.49 | 15405.01 | 7.12 | -1563.51 | 111.296
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 140099 | 17177 (0.12299) | 122481 | 441 | 55525.24 | 53811.18 | 100.19 | 1714.06 | 96.913
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 55026 | 10086 (0.18474) | 44510 | 430 | 88536.74 | 85979.45 | 3314.64 | 2557.29 | 97.112
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 168834 | 41036 (0.24373) | 127331 | 467 | 190357.70 | 190654.95 | 2056.04 | -297.25 | 100.156
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 155736 | 57131 (0.36803) | 98102 | 503 | 195257.06 | 193127.81 | 1012.92 | 2129.24 | 98.910
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 886312 | 432236 (0.48844) | 452689 | 1387 | 584716.51 | 575295.22 | 2924.05 | 9421.28 | 98.389
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 401427 | 200082 (0.49947) | 200505 | 840 | 419573.36 | 409586.96 | 5720.28 | 9986.40 | 97.620
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 258734 | 189999 (0.73582) | 68215 | 520 | 255272.95 | 249693.18 | 5454.82 | 5579.76 | 97.814
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 49079 | 38668 (0.79459) | 9996 | 415 | 50331.15 | 49407.14 | 1187.16 | 924.00 | 98.164
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 37144 | 31411 (0.85598) | 5285 | 448 | 49499.20 | 48862.05 | 400.16 | 637.14 | 98.713
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 47533 | 43143 (0.91581) | 3966 | 424 | 52828.71 | 52452.39 | 0.14 | 376.32 | 99.288
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12402 | 11479 (0.98119) | 220 | 703 | 21862.76 | 21499.23 | 239.56 | 363.52 | 98.337
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2549179 | 1041336 | 1493960 | 13883 | 581832.13 | 569725.38 | 213.60 | 12106.75 | 97.919
   big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 83835 | 40608 | 42938 | 289 | 1469794.59 | 1444757.13 | 22562.70 | 25037.46 | 98.297
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   | 2633014 | 1081944 | 1536898 | 14172 | 2051626.73 | 2014482.51 | 22776.31 | 37144.22 | 98.190
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 37144.22370410 BTC (1.810%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1829.13547500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 35315.08822910 BTC (1.721%)
Pending Liabilities: 53.42699373 BTC
Final SD Profit: 35261.66123537 BTC (1.719%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8618950 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4847450 (56.2%)
Blockchain MB: 3668.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 1988.7 (54.2%)

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 22, 2013, 07:11:05 PM

#715

Quote

Total of 2 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-22 10:59am (up to block 217598)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 73728 | 0 (0.00000) | 72470 | 1258 | 698.53 | 0.01 | 96.06 | 698.51 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3704 | 0 (0.00000) | 3211 | 493 | 56.69 | 0.00 | 16.53 | 56.68 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5795 | 1 (0.00019) | 5375 | 419 | 79.55 | 159.96 | 8.46 | -80.40 | 201.068
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8496 | 3 (0.00037) | 8069 | 424 | 123.66 | 176.00 | 10.03 | -52.33 | 142.322
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10239 | 1 (0.00010) | 9826 | 412 | 293.43 | 4.51 | 18.66 | 288.91 | 1.540
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11073 | 3 (0.00028) | 10679 | 391 | 579.41 | 303.52 | 1.36 | 275.88 | 52.385
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13049 | 12 (0.00095) | 12635 | 402 | 834.60 | 155.71 | 55.71 | 678.88 | 18.658
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15902 | 30 (0.00194) | 15442 | 430 | 1916.85 | 1374.07 | 48.32 | 542.78 | 71.684
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17696 | 76 (0.00439) | 17245 | 375 | 2212.71 | 3537.62 | 13.16 | -1324.90 | 159.877
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26208 | 196 (0.00768) | 25334 | 678 | 4383.63 | 3992.19 | 9.96 | 391.43 | 91.071
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 80873 | 1232 (0.01532) | 79197 | 444 | 20251.88 | 17578.07 | 1.92 | 2673.80 | 86.797
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20172 | 472 (0.02381) | 19351 | 349 | 6476.46 | 6458.53 | 15.07 | 17.92 | 99.723
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 48448 | 1496 (0.03112) | 46575 | 377 | 21926.23 | 20058.42 | 9.31 | 1867.81 | 91.481
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23363 | 1063 (0.04632) | 21886 | 414 | 8535.90 | 9739.87 | 25.10 | -1203.96 | 114.105
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29019 | 1759 (0.06139) | 26894 | 366 | 6623.89 | 6173.71 | 31.27 | 450.18 | 93.204
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 34111 | 3171 (0.09404) | 30549 | 391 | 13905.12 | 15608.41 | 7.12 | -1703.28 | 112.249
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 140484 | 17228 (0.12302) | 122815 | 441 | 55959.16 | 54153.50 | 100.19 | 1805.65 | 96.773
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 55222 | 10121 (0.18472) | 44671 | 430 | 89629.51 | 86745.21 | 3314.64 | 2884.30 | 96.782
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 169278 | 41139 (0.24370) | 127672 | 467 | 196013.47 | 197943.53 | 2056.04 | -1930.05 | 100.985
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 157505 | 57808 (0.36820) | 99192 | 505 | 204694.43 | 203938.68 | 1012.93 | 755.75 | 99.631
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 888168 | 433110 (0.48841) | 453668 | 1390 | 589658.27 | 580231.97 | 2924.06 | 9426.29 | 98.401
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 403436 | 201062 (0.49942) | 201529 | 845 | 423940.95 | 413241.32 | 5720.30 | 10699.62 | 97.476
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 259967 | 190888 (0.73575) | 68558 | 521 | 255919.59 | 250238.27 | 5454.82 | 5681.32 | 97.780
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 49431 | 38949 (0.79462) | 10067 | 415 | 52210.24 | 51262.71 | 1187.16 | 947.52 | 98.185
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 37714 | 31917 (0.85649) | 5348 | 449 | 52093.55 | 51574.09 | 400.17 | 519.46 | 99.003
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 48224 | 43778 (0.91588) | 4021 | 425 | 53058.91 | 52681.53 | 0.15 | 377.37 | 99.289
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12450 | 11523 (0.98127) | 220 | 707 | 21945.74 | 21582.56 | 239.56 | 363.17 | 98.345
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2559062 | 1045999 | 1499134 | 13929 | 584494.16 | 572290.39 | 215.48 | 12203.77 | 97.912
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 84693 | 41039 | 43365 | 289 | 1499528.31 | 1476623.71 | 22562.70 | 22904.59 | 98.473
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2643755 | 1087038 | 1542499 | 14218 | 2084022.48 | 2048914.11 | 22778.18 | 35108.37 | 98.315
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 35108.37745485 BTC (1.685%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1840.01187500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 33268.36557985 BTC (1.596%)
Pending Liabilities: -0.05999998 BTC
Final SD Profit: 33268.42557983 BTC (1.596%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8656364 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4867515 (56.2%)
Blockchain MB: 3685.1 : SatoshiDice MB: 1997.2 (54.2%)

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 22, 2013, 07:29:45 PM

#716

There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours. I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume. It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now:

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Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 22, 2013, 10:05:37 PM

#717

Quote from: dooglus on January 22, 2013, 07:29:45 PM

The whales are definitely back.

And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update! (block 217599 - 217616)

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 23, 2013, 04:49:23 AM

#718

Quote from: Bugpowder on January 22, 2013, 10:05:37 PM

The whales are definitely back.

And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update! (block 217599 - 217616)

Indeed - and they're still playing...

Quote

Results: 2013-Jan-22 08:42pm (up to block 217651)

SD Profit before fees: 46089.86961885 BTC (2.153%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1847.76947500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 44242.10014385 BTC (2.066%)
Pending Liabilities: -682.69538813 BTC
Final SD Profit: 44924.79553198 BTC (2.098%)

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Bowjob

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 23, 2013, 04:56:15 AM

#719

Very nice. S.Dice shares should appreciate by quite a bit if it stops there now. Heh.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

January 23, 2013, 05:06:32 AM

#720

Quote from: dooglus on January 23, 2013, 04:49:23 AM

Quote from: Bugpowder on January 22, 2013, 10:05:37 PM

The whales are definitely back.

And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update! (block 217599 - 217616)

Indeed - and they're still playing...

Quote

And going....

Over 13,000BTC profit up to 217654....

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