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..... Now, that has he made a major error by predicting a VB coin rally to 5500 instead of it plunging to 2900 (a 90% difference), perhaps he would learn a lesson that ALL predictions based on prior behavior are fallacies, or random at best.
most not ALL
it depends a lot on many conditions.
if every condition is the same it will likely repeat.
but at the moment almost no conditions in 2025 matchaes the 2021 conditions.
How about miners were killing it in October and Nov 2021
maybe 15% or 20% was power cost so in terms of power a 60k coin was 9 to 12k
and now a 93k coins in terms of power is around 63k
huge fucking difference in conditions. a lot more besides that one.
rates were low low low
and the gov was giving money away.
plus inflation had not cranked up yet.
four huge differences.
I doubt that your proclaimed "huge differences" are even as close to materially relevant as you are making them out to be. the profittability of miners remains only ONE of the areas of possible incluential factors in regards to where the bitcoin price is and/or where it might be going.
Even you should know better, since you were participating in bitcoin around that time, and likely one of the BIGGER influential factors in bitcoin price dynamics in the 2021 time was shown in 2022 and the seeming explanation of overleveraging and also a bunch of bullshit rehypothecation of coins (meaning that there were many claims for the same coins), and the cascading downward momentum started to show itself in April/May-ish of 2022 with the Terra/Luna crash and then we had a whole bunch of others (such as BlockFi, Celsius, 3 AC, Voyager, FTX/Alameda, some of the contractual relations with Genesis (related to Gemini) and GBTC, and there were likely several more of these entities that were attracting coins into their systems by paying outrageously high intrest (yield) and then there were layers upon layers and even fraud in several cases) that were revealed through that whole process of cascading downfalls of the price and more and more of those businesses showing themselves to be swimming naked, and sure some of that was shown through the downfall of FTX/Alameda, but it was a complicated array of froth in the system that ended up getting purged out and you want to provide causal relationships and difference in regards to then and now merely on the basis of costs of mining? how the fuck simplified do you want to be in your looking at shadows on a cave wall and proclaiming that you can recognize truth from that?
Sure mining was not completely absent from the package since we had some outrageous behaviors of the Chinese government to make various seemingly large restrictive proclamations in regards to mining in china that contributed to a halvening of the hashing power over a period of several months in early 2021 and then a fairly decent return of the hashing power, and so underlying mining costs, hashing power, and even questions of bitcoin's coin security (through mining) dynamics were NOT completely absent from then BTC price dynamic explanations, yet at the same time, there was more going on in regards to bitcoin besides the mining connection that was influencing the bitcoin's price then as compared with the bitcoin's price now... Oh yeah, and I recall several large mining companies that had overleveraged too.. since overleveraging was in fashion in 2021/2022.. which also related to some of the miners buying overly price mining equipment on credit in 2021 and then contributing to parts of the cascading downfalls of some of them having to sell a lot of coins in losses or to give up mining equipment in losses due to the ways that they had overleveraged. Mining and mining related matters is not a non-factor during that time in which we had a lot of overleveraging going on.
I should not have to outline these other factors, since you should already have had known them, even though you were too busy focusing on a quasi-irrelevant mattter (or at least less relevant matter) in order to make superficial and comparisons of quite-likely non-material factors.
As for how many coins can you get.
2 or 3 if you live in USA or Europe Canada Japan New Zealand Australia Singapore is possible if you are under 40 as of today and start buying into it.
Its a general number but it can be done.
How would you know about the accumulation of coins based on ongoing buying? I would suggest that a person might well need to have a commitment to average buying around $300 or more per week over the next 10 years to perhaps get to 1 coin... perhaps?
$300 per week would be $15,600 per year, and therefore $156k in 10 years. I have a hard time considering it reasonable that the BTC price will average only $156k or less over the next 10 years... yet if we are going to consider potential reasonable accumulation of something like 1 BTC, we need to try to be realistic and/or perhaps otherwise to front load our bitcoin investment, and not very many people are really ready, willing and/or able, even at current prices to plop down $92k-ish to buy a whole bitcoin.. so the more practical way of accumulating bitocin is to buy over time and also perhaps to just ongoingly persiste in the accumulation of coin, without fucking around selling(trading) or getting involved in shitcoins or otherwise screwing up and losing their BTC accumulation focus. Not very common for the average normie to be able to reasonably accumulate a whole coin, so there are likely needs to attempt to figure out practical intermediate goals. .. and yeah, perhaps with some persistency and ongoing studying of bitcoin to perhaps transition into aggressive accumulation of bitcoin without over doing it and screwing up, then yeah 1 BTC might be reachable, even though it is likely more reasonable to suggest most normies start out by pursuing lower level goals before they might be able to recognize and appreciate the possibility of accumujlating something like a whole coin or more.
Even when some of us started investing 10years ago or more, it might have been a challenge to get to 100 coins in 2013 or difficult to get to 21 coins in 2017 and even challenging to get to a whole coin around 2021... so starting out realistic and reachable with goals tend to be a good thing, even if there might also be higher aspirational level goals, too.
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I hope the four year cycle event is completely dismissed and the sooner, the better.
Bitcoin's maturity and institutional adoption is far more significant than the traditional 'halving' event. Price expectations based on the 'halving events have now run it course and is meaningless from now on - it needs to just be ignored and forgotten about...
You seem to just love to pump BTC ETFs and instituational matters so much, whenever you get a chance.
You might not even understand actual bitcoin.
Do people that want to keep the halving event front-and-center really think investors are going to want to be predicting the price outcome for each future halving event through the 33rd halving event in year 2140? No way! Does historical dips and gains really mean anything worthwhile from this point onward? Not a bit!
The underlying asset is important, whether newbie on the block (isn't that Johnny come lately?) believe that you have bitcoin all figured out.
I have some difficulties understanding how your stupid-ass BTC ETFs are going to have much if any value, if the underlying (bitcoin in this case) loses its value.
The elimination of thinking about the four year cycle should start immediately.
Why is there a need to elminate thinking in regards to what bitcoin actually is? You might have to go take some bitcoin 101 lessons before you go too far down the smarter than everyone else road?.. which seems to be your ongoing inclinations.
Investor's thinking about 'halving' only causes harm and volatility.
I doubt that investors are ONLY thinking about the halvening when thinking about the four year cycle.. even though there is some value in regards to onchain activities, taking possession of your coin and also being able to move such coins without seeking permission or even having to report such moves, even though BIG daddy government, BIG daddy institutions and/or BIG daddy status quo rich folks would love to close off some of those kinds of avenues in order to take away several of the various features in which bitcoin gets value, power and the ability financially (and informationally) empower individuals with various aspects of self-sovereignty.. which yeah, who needs that pesky self-sovereignty bullshit, right? or privacy? or control? right? it is better to ask BIG DADDY government/institutions and/or status quo rich folks how we should communicate and/or interchange value with each other, right?
Let bitcoin stand on its own as a mature asset
Bitcoin is not even close to mature, so get that out of your pea-sized brain lil head.
instead of pushing it to be a predictable boom-and-bust pattern, which it no longer is... Let it seek a supply & demand value just like gold...
What the fuck do you know? There is a reason that gold lost the battle with fiat, so bitcoin is around 1,000x better (or more) than gold, so there is no need for you (or anyone else) to give bitcoin that blessing, since bitcoin is already blessed in that regard, even though there are folks trying to take away bitcoin's potency in regards to the several ways that bitcoin is better than gold, including part of the likely reason that the Samuari wallet developers are not getting sympathy and also likely part of the reason that the US Govt is trying to act like they are all friendly to bitcoin, while at the same time looking for more and more ways to put controls in regards to the various ways that individuals can hold, transact and/or even maintain privacy in their use of their coins.
I doubt that fucking around with ETFs and other third-party derivative products are going to even come close to allowing abilities to transact and/or to secure privacy in our transactions/communications and/or our value (how much we have and where we keep it.. Big daddy government, big daddy finanancial institutions and/or big daddy status quo rich would love us to report all of those matters, if they could get us to do it.. while at the same time, some of them probably love those kinds of bitcoin features for themselves, but not for regular Joe blows who they would like to lock in their houses with a UBI and tell them, when, where and how they can spend their money.. if that were to involve bitcoin, but they may be wanting to sneak shitcoins, stable coins and some of that other nonsense into the mix and act like those monitoring coins are the same as bitcoin blah blah blah).. . and yeah, let's get rid of physical cash too.. starting with the penny (including some of the bullshit around covid that also made it acceptable to for merchants to discriminate against physical cash).
