Maybe I am getting way too far off topic?
I think this debate is drifting to off topic, which is usual in long threads like this one. We come from debating about MSTR to end up talking about bitcoin accumulation and withdrawal strategies. But I think it's not entirely off topic so I'm going to respond. And by the way, I agree that buying MSTR shares is not diversification, to me it is simply adding leverage. You can get a higher return but you also have a higher risk, starting because you don't have the keys to the bitcoins held by MSTR.
There are so many people who fail/refuse to sufficiently save and/or invest any kind of meaningful amount, so both shooting for 10% investment/savings and not tapping into their long term savings/investment tends to be very powerful, yet like you mentioned it still will take a long ass time to really build wealth with those levels of 10% (even though those levels are quite practical and probably even a BIG improvement for a lot of folks).
Of course, I believe that even if you keep accumulating even with imperfections along the way you can find a better future financially speaking.
So, yeah, 10% per year is ONLY get you to a status of having had invested a whole year's income after 10 years, and if at minimum we need around 10 years of bitcoin to be able to be at fuck you status, then we are somewhat reliant for either growth of our value or putting in at larger rates. We can ONLY do as much as we can do as far as putting in, and for sure, whatever we choose to invest into is not guaranteed, so we have to do our best to make sure that we invest in the best kind of thing(s) that we know to be available, which surely many of us consider to be bitcoin, yet even with bitcoin it is not guaranteed to appreciate and/or to compound our value, even though historically it has done quite well in regards to appreciating and compounding value.
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Ok.. sure in order to accelerate his investment into bitcoin amounts, some guys might be capable of having his base investment amount into bitcoin as 10% of his salary, and then consider any extra money that comes in to him to be authorized to be invested into bitcoin. That will help to build the base, and other various kinds of front-loading that can happen, yet at the same time, there is a bit of an assumption that after 3 cycles, it is quite likely that a lot of compounding ended up taking place, so the guy's being aggressive in his investment beyond the 10% has contributed towards his being able to profit from any compounding of value that ended up taking place in the bitcoin that he had been accumulating.
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A guy can invest into bitcoin and still engage in various kinds of spend and replace, and also practicing using various kinds of storage solutions and even ways of transacting, but yeah, if a guy bought a hardware wallet, a Start 9 server, and a mining rig for 0.05731632 BTC, and then maybe he would have a goal to replace that spent 0.05731632 BTC BTC with 0.0582 BTC purchases within the upcoming month (outside of his normal BTC buys).
12 years is really not a long time to invest in regards to potentially getting to a place in which a guy might end up having life changing money.
Historically, in bitcoin, a guy could have invested merely 10% of his salary into bitcoin and reached fuck you status within a couple of cycles. So see the example of a guy who invested
$100 per week over the last 9 years (That would be a guy with an annual salary of $52k investing $5,200 per year), would have gotten right around to 15.75 BTC, which clearly would be enough to replace the guys salary in terms of being able to live off of the amount.
Right now,
15.75 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $665k and a spot price value of $1.6 million, so even going based on the 200-WMA value the guy could withdraw up to $66.5k per year, which is greater than his $52k salary... I would presume that the BTC is going to keep up with the debasement of the dollar, yet we might also consider that if a guy started out investing in bitcoin and his salary was $52k, then maybe now his salary is higher and maybe his salary even doubled in the last 9 years. Perhaps? So the guy has to make those kinds of calculations to figure out if he is going to keep buying bitcoin or even to just wait for his already accumulated 15.75 BTC is enough and he can use his discretionary income in other ways.
Well, when I gave my example I had in mind not only people from the USA but from the rest of the world, and I also believe that in the future the revaluation of bitcoin is going to be potentially lower than the calculation made since 9 or 12 years ago. Although next year looks very bullish I believe that the returns of the next 3 cycles will be lower than the returns of the last 3 cycles.
Guys also have choices whether to start withdrawing and living off of their BTC or to continue to work and to continue to build their BTC until it gets to their desired level (and there would have had been too many variables to completely figure out 9 years ago, yet with the passage of time, the guy can see progress, yet at the same time historical performance numbers are not going to necessarily give any kind of precise abilities to see future performance levels).
Even with fuck you status, such status does not have to be all or nothing, since it should be seen as giving more options...
That's right, accumulating wealth gives you options, and just because you have fuck you status doesn't mean you're necessarily going to quit your job. It depends on whether you like it more or less, but maybe you can decide to work less hours, or freelance instead of working for a company, things like that.
It seems that having the ability to completely replace a person's current salary by entering into a sustainable withdrawal of BTC tends to be quite a powerful place to be..
I agree 100%.
I know that I might sound adamant about not selling any bitcoin prior to having more than enough, and largely I am attempting to direct my comments at the guys who sell for the purpose of buying back cheaper.
Yes, trying to time the market when bitcoin gives you an impressive return for doing nothing, other than continuing to accumulate or just hold, doesn't seem very smart.
Many people have their main investments as their personal residence and perhaps some kind of a 401k, and so if some of those 401ks might have bitcoin options (such as MSTR or ETF options), then they could choose within their 401ks, otherwise they are faced with choosing the buying of BTC directly. It can be difficult for people to invest beyond their personal residence and their 401k, and surely there is a bit of a perversion with the personal residence serving as an investment (especially since it is not very liquid, it has a lot of costs, and frequently people buy houses that are more expensive than they can afford, so they are left without a lot of money left over to invest into anything else).
It can be quite challenging for anyone to invest, even up to 10% into bitcoin if they might have 30% or more of their income going into their mortgage payment, maybe up to 10% going into their 401k, so then they might consider the other portion of their income to be needed to live off of rather than investing into something like bitcoin.
Agreed.
