I observe that monero core devs have their stuff together, which is a nice change of pace as compared to some other projects, and deem that the likelihood of catastrophe is negligible. But I am now keeping some BTC hot in case of a lemming panic.
In startups, a catastrophe (from investor pov), is the -100% case. And that is very common, 50-90% of all projects end up such.
Therefore it more makes sense to evaluate the upside, and XMR is like BTC when it was young: the
future upside got
better as the marketcap proved that someone believed in the coin

(With scamcoins, it's the opposite - rise in price means more possibility for crash).
I like the XMR team very much though although my personal acquaintance is only 29% anymore.