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    Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3316490 times)
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    • griffen1102
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    March 15, 2016, 12:01:49 PM
     #14661



    Soon methinks.

  • hoertest
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    March 15, 2016, 12:21:33 PM
     #14662
    everytime i scan the top 20 for store of value alternatives to btc i end up with xmr these days. turned believer. got it wrong the 1st time.

  • aminorex
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    March 15, 2016, 02:09:17 PM
    Last edit: March 15, 2016, 04:49:55 PM by aminorex
     #14663
    Yeah that ETH correlation is annoying, but it is nicely asymmetric, you must admit. Now compare it to BTCUSD and USDJPY,  to get a better picture.

    EDIT:

    The correlation of first differences is easy to see.  The trend factors require a little more staring.  Note that as ETH was pumping, XMR rose, but not as rapidly.  Note that as ETH is dumping, XMR trend is roughly flat.  I think we can thank ETH for stimulating a spec/hedge movement from pure BTC portfolios to mixed Crypto portfolios, and that a significant (relative to the XMR market cap) fraction of ETH gains booked as BTC have been flowing into XMR.

    The comparison to BTCUSD is intended to suggest that, if you look, you might find, for example, that the ETH peaks occurred during BTCUSD dips.  This suggests hedging BTC positions by adding ETH, when BTC shows weakness.
    If so, then a fraction of that flow going directly from BTC into XMR seems inevitable.

    All the evidence seems to support my snap analysis of a few days back.

    I suggest looking at USDJPY because it seems very possible that global risk appetite may correlate with the first difference chain as well.  Those amounts are in the trillions, and even a fraction of a basis point of those flows going into BTC, ETH, XMR, whatever, will have outsized impact.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.

  • aminorex
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    March 15, 2016, 02:11:53 PM
     #14664
    Quote from: hoertest on March 15, 2016, 12:21:33 PM
    everytime i scan the top 20 for store of value alternatives to btc i end up with xmr these days. turned believer. got it wrong the 1st time.

    Nothing wrong with being wrong that changing your mind can't fix Wink. Welcome to the future of scarcity.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.

  • Dotto
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    March 15, 2016, 02:24:27 PM
     #14665
    Breakup in 18h

  • nickenburg
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    March 15, 2016, 02:59:23 PM
     #14666
    Guys I finally downloaded the blockchain, and I have opened the simple wallet now!
    But when I try to search for my Address on a Monero Blockexplorer I can't find it yet.
    So Is it safe to send the Monero to my Wallet already?

  • papa_lazzarou
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    March 15, 2016, 03:10:46 PM
     #14667
    Quote from: nickenburg on March 15, 2016, 02:59:23 PM
    Guys I finally downloaded the blockchain, and I have opened the simple wallet now!
    But when I try to search for my Address on a Monero Blockexplorer I can't find it yet.
    So Is it safe to send the Monero to my Wallet already?


    Monero addresses are not visible in the blockchain because every output is sent to a one time address (output public key).

    http://moneroblocks.info/tx/f8d8dafdeccea86c7168bb74160e1117646b67f0ecc4f73b9e80f12b7028acd1


    Quote from: nickenburg on March 15, 2016, 02:59:23 PM
    So Is it safe to send the Monero to my Wallet already?

    It's as safe as your backups and security practices.

    PS: You do not need to sync the daemon in order to create a new address with simplewallet.

  • nioc
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    March 15, 2016, 03:11:02 PM
     #14668
    Quote from: nickenburg on March 15, 2016, 02:59:23 PM
    Guys I finally downloaded the blockchain, and I have opened the simple wallet now!
    But when I try to search for my Address on a Monero Blockexplorer I can't find it yet.
    So Is it safe to send the Monero to my Wallet already?




    The joy of true anonymity Smiley   If I give you my address you won't find it either Smiley Smiley

    Yes you can send to your wallet.  If you are unsure or cautious you can send a small amount first.  The transaction will show on the block explorer but neither the address nor the correct amount will be seen.  You will see the correct amount in your wallet.

  • 25hashcoin
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    March 15, 2016, 04:07:08 PM
     #14669
    Quote from: iCEBREAKER on March 14, 2016, 10:18:11 PM
    Quote from: aminorex on March 14, 2016, 09:00:54 PM
    Quote from: illodin on March 14, 2016, 08:50:32 PM
    Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2015, 02:04:31 PM
    If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

    All-in ETH?
    I don't think it counts as an alt.  Alt meaning alternative cryptocurrency:  It's not a cryptocurrency. 


    I like the idea of ETH being the oil to Bitcoin's gold.


    Dumbest thing I've heard.
    Bitcoin - Peer to Peer Electronic CASH

  • Hueristic
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    March 15, 2016, 04:20:23 PM
     #14670
    Shit, I got sharked. Placed a temp sell while getting a buy in and got chomped. Cheesy

    FUCKING HATE THESE BOTS!!!!!!!!!!

    On the bright side made 3k playing poker the other day. Smiley

    It's safer than this market!
    “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”

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    March 15, 2016, 04:47:36 PM
     #14671
    Quote from: Hueristic on March 15, 2016, 04:20:23 PM
    Shit, I got sharked. Placed a temp sell while getting a buy in and got chomped. Cheesy

    FUCKING HATE THESE BOTS!!!!!!!!!!

    On the bright side made 3k playing poker the other day. Smiley

    It's safer than this market!

    Are there any xmr poker sites?

  • Drhiggins
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    March 15, 2016, 04:57:00 PM
     #14672
    Quote from: fff13 on March 15, 2016, 04:54:48 PM
    Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

    I can only answer for my self and I believe yes Monero is safer than Bitcoin for the long haul. 
    Monerohash.com   U.S. Mining Pool

  • griffen1102
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    March 15, 2016, 05:04:25 PM
     #14673
    Quote from: fff13 on March 15, 2016, 04:54:48 PM
    Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

    There is a healthly mix of traders and hodlers here. I trade with most my XMR (~75%) but have a stash for hodl as well.

  • GingerAle
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    March 15, 2016, 05:05:55 PM
     #14674
    Quote from: Drhiggins on March 15, 2016, 04:57:00 PM
    Quote from: fff13 on March 15, 2016, 04:54:48 PM
    Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

    I can only answer for my self and I believe yes Monero is safer than Bitcoin for the long haul.  

    Scenario - 10 years from now, 2026. You - holding bitcoin, me - holding monero.

    Future Company X deems that the bitcoin you just bought 10 years ago (right now, 2016) has a bad trail ... perhaps because the coins were obtained before monitoring services were established in the bitcoin ecosystem, so therefore your bitcoin is not as valuable as someones bitcoin mined in 2021 because it doesn't have a verified acceptable provenance.

    Meanwhile my monero have no trail, so they cannot be deemed more or less worthy than someone elses monero.

    Privacy is a side effect of fungibility. The "privacy features" of monero are a red herring. Its real property is fungibility.

    edited for many miswords.
    < Track your bitcoins! > < Track them again! > <<< [url=https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qomqt/what_a_landmark_legal_case_from_mid1700s_scotland/] What is fungibility? >>> 46P88uZ4edEgsk7iKQUGu2FUDYcdHm2HtLFiGLp1inG4e4f9PTb4mbHWYWFZGYUeQidJ8hFym2WUmWc p34X8HHmFS2LXJkf <<< Free subdomains at moneroworld.com!! >>> <<< If you don't want to run your own node, point your wallet to node.moneroworld.com, and get connected to a random node! @@@@ FUCK ALL THE PROFITEERS! PROOF OF WORK OR ITS A SCAM !!! @@@@

  • wachtwoord
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    March 15, 2016, 05:10:41 PM
     #14675
    Quote from: fff13 on March 15, 2016, 04:54:48 PM
    Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

    Nope, that's why I hold way more XBT than XMR. It is the only altcoin I hold and I don't see any value whatsoever in any of the others.

  • aminorex
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    March 15, 2016, 05:16:34 PM
     #14676
    Quote from: aminorex on February 18, 2016, 03:34:03 PM
    In other news, palladium is way cheap under 500 USD.

    That was so true, and quite timely.  Expect XPDXAU to outperform while gold is retracing.  But I can no longer recommend holding XPD outright long over the near- to medium-terms.

    I am short *everything* except XMR and BTC right now.  Short gold, short brazil, short spus, short oil.  It's working pretty well, and if the win is quite large, I think I may finally make that big celebratory market-buy which I never got around to before.  YOLO, and all that.

    I find rates too unpredictable right now to play in that sandbox, but the HYG/SPX spread compression trade is attractive.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.

  • Quicken
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    March 15, 2016, 05:19:29 PM
     #14677
    Quote from: Hueristic on March 15, 2016, 04:20:23 PM
    Shit, I got sharked. Placed a temp sell while getting a buy in and got chomped. Cheesy

    FUCKING HATE THESE BOTS!!!!!!!!!!

    On the bright side made 3k playing poker the other day. Smiley

    It's safer than this market!

    Dangerous when you try to manipulate it with a fake sell? Yup. Good to hear you made some money elsewhere.  Smiley

  • aminorex
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    March 15, 2016, 05:23:22 PM
     #14678
    Quote from: fff13 on March 15, 2016, 04:54:48 PM
    Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

    Edit to add: 2 years from now, who has a fatter wallet, 100 bitcoins or 10,000 monero?

    The monero.  I would bet 5:1 odds on that, if I were into chasing 20% gains, which I am not.  In fact I hold XMR:BTC at a USD mark-to-market ratio of 12:1 at present.  I consider BTC a poor hedge, but it is nice to have liquidity, and XMR just isn't cutting it on the liquidity side at this small market cap.  (Fine for buying coffee or weed or therapy or lunch in brussels, maybe some slovenian artworks, but not good for buying a hacienda in Chile, or even for shuffling between crypto-exchanges, since many don't list it yet -- but more are coming, and some major fiat/crypto exchange will surely take it up soon, maybe kraken, maybe bitfinex, maybe btc-e.)
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.

  • nioc
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    March 15, 2016, 05:29:21 PM
     #14679
    Quote from: fff13 on March 15, 2016, 04:54:48 PM
    Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

    Edit to add: 2 years from now, who has a fatter wallet, 100 bitcoins or 10,000 monero?

    But you can buy over 35,000 Monero for 100 btc now.

  • nioc
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    March 15, 2016, 05:33:21 PM
     #14680
    Quote from: wpalczynski on March 15, 2016, 04:47:36 PM
    Quote from: Hueristic on March 15, 2016, 04:20:23 PM
    Shit, I got sharked. Placed a temp sell while getting a buy in and got chomped. Cheesy

    FUCKING HATE THESE BOTS!!!!!!!!!!

    On the bright side made 3k playing poker the other day. Smiley

    It's safer than this market!

    Are there any xmr poker sites?

    No.  The btc only poker sites are small.  Some  fiat sites now have btc deposits and withdrawals as an option.  Poker unlike other games needs a large pool of players for a site to be successful.
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