Ninja fork. I'm expecting a big diff. decrease. Two big private Chinese botnet pools have not upgraded (3.7MH/s total hash), I have a feeling there are many more.
Approximately 20% of the hash rate has not upgraded, so yes there will likely be a difficulty decrease over the next 24 hours, depending on how long those miners take to upgrade.
I was expecting more, around 40%. Are you saying 20% have not upgraded looking at the last how many blocks, 100 or 1000 ?
Very early versions of botnet miners included the daemon (miners posted on chinese forums less than 6 months ago have a daemon included, version 8 ).
I'm expecting at least 10% of hash not to come back online.