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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis (Read 192935 times)

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 30, 2012, 02:44:30 PM

#161

A close-up of the recent losses. The graph shows the result after each block in the blockchain.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 31, 2012, 12:49:08 PM

#162

Quote

Results: 2012-Jul-31 05:41am (up to block 191667)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 11727 | 0 (0.00000) | 11443 | 284 | 70.51 | 0.01 | 18.39 | 70.49 | 0.027
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1100 | 0 (0.00000) | 1030 | 70 | 16.59 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 16.59 | 0.011
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1649 | 0 (0.00000) | 1615 | 34 | 20.22 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 20.20 | 0.105
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1357 | 1 (0.00076) | 1315 | 41 | 32.29 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 24.23 | 24.940
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1666 | 1 (0.00061) | 1632 | 33 | 66.58 | 4.19 | 7.40 | 62.39 | 6.301
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4082 | 2 (0.00049) | 4069 | 11 | 279.32 | 103.07 | 1.29 | 176.24 | 36.903
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 5848 | 8 (0.00137) | 5823 | 17 | 297.90 | 123.01 | 55.64 | 174.89 | 41.292
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 6852 | 17 (0.00250) | 6787 | 48 | 1287.05 | 1173.89 | 40.25 | 113.16 | 91.208
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 5958 | 29 (0.00488) | 5915 | 14 | 628.85 | 572.02 | 13.11 | 56.83 | 90.961
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 8998 | 65 (0.00723) | 8928 | 5 | 1750.86 | 1184.79 | 9.35 | 566.06 | 67.669
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 16619 | 252 (0.01517) | 16363 | 4 | 3629.95 | 3832.94 | 1.80 | -202.98 | 105.592
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 8971 | 210 (0.02342) | 8755 | 6 | 3256.52 | 3665.55 | 15.00 | -409.03 | 112.560
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 11697 | 365 (0.03121) | 11329 | 3 | 3649.33 | 3357.27 | 9.24 | 292.06 | 91.997
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 9032 | 433 (0.04798) | 8592 | 7 | 5311.40 | 6811.54 | 24.99 | -1500.13 | 128.244
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 10248 | 634 (0.06188) | 9611 | 3 | 3575.44 | 3172.49 | 31.20 | 402.95 | 88.730
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 17084 | 1616 (0.09464) | 15459 | 9 | 9088.32 | 9238.60 | 7.01 | -150.28 | 101.654
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 38621 | 4760 (0.12330) | 33846 | 15 | 7039.38 | 6264.99 | 0.00 | 774.39 | 88.999
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 17365 | 3299 (0.19005) | 14060 | 6 | 7001.71 | 7185.66 | 14.50 | -183.95 | 102.627
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 46642 | 11324 (0.24283) | 35310 | 8 | 16403.84 | 17048.85 | 347.79 | -645.01 | 103.932
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 34622 | 12801 (0.37009) | 21788 | 33 | 15767.49 | 15741.53 | 212.63 | 25.96 | 99.835
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 335284 | 163400 (0.48756) | 171738 | 146 | 119644.56 | 120425.86 | 2173.21 | -781.29 | 100.653
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 138387 | 69061 (0.49936) | 69238 | 88 | 56947.27 | 55087.39 | 789.20 | 1859.87 | 96.734
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 105554 | 77665 (0.73620) | 27830 | 59 | 94244.00 | 92818.72 | 467.98 | 1425.27 | 98.488
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 2292 | 1846 (0.80541) | 446 | 0 | 5784.23 | 6010.50 | 0.00 | -226.26 | 103.912
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 1930 | 1643 (0.85218) | 285 | 2 | 1743.37 | 1781.45 | 0.00 | -38.08 | 102.185
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 629 | 576 (0.92013) | 50 | 3 | 387.55 | 378.12 | 0.00 | 9.42 | 97.569
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6068 | 5812 (0.97878) | 126 | 130 | 5171.38 | 4974.11 | 239.20 | 197.27 | 96.185
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 850282 | 355820 | 493383 | 1079 | 363096.05 | 360964.73 | 4491.23 | 2131.32 | 99.413
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 2131.32716038 BTC (0.587%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 428.11210000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 1703.21506038 BTC (0.469%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 2599109 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1565771 (60.2%)
Blockchain MB: 1094.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 643.7 (58.8%)

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 31, 2012, 01:06:09 PM

#163

Quote from: dooglus on July 28, 2012, 07:45:39 AM

Quote from: gmaxwell on July 25, 2012, 06:43:21 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 25, 2012, 06:01:34 PM

Here's another lucky martingale escape which accounts for the last spike up and back down on the blue line:

Make sure to chronically the flipside too. The failures, though sad, are also entertaining... and can serve as a cautionary tale for others.

Here's a cautionary tale if ever I saw one:

2012-07-28 00:37:45 <24000 Bet: 4.20000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.02050000 Profit: -4.1795 Cumulative: -4.1795
2012-07-28 00:37:54 <24000 Bet: 6.80000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.03350000 Profit: -6.7665 Cumulative: -10.946
2012-07-28 00:38:06 <24000 Bet: 10.80000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.05350000 Profit: -10.7465 Cumulative: -21.6925
2012-07-28 00:38:27 <24000 Bet: 17.20000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.08550000 Profit: -17.1145 Cumulative: -38.807
2012-07-28 00:39:01 <24000 Bet: 27.40000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.13650000 Profit: -27.2635 Cumulative: -66.0705
2012-07-28 00:39:18 <24000 Bet: 43.80000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.21850000 Profit: -43.5815 Cumulative: -109.652
2012-07-28 00:39:40 <24000 Bet: 70.00000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.34950000 Profit: -69.6505 Cumulative: -179.3025
2012-07-28 00:40:02 <24000 Bet: 112.00000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.55950000 Profit: -111.4405 Cumulative: -290.743

2012-07-28 00:40:49 <24000 Bet: 4.20000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.02050000 Profit: -4.1795 Cumulative: -294.9225
2012-07-28 00:41:04 <24000 Bet: 6.80000000 Outcome: WIN Payment: 18.15638853 Profit: 11.35638853 Cumulative: -283.56611147

2012-07-28 00:41:25 <24000 Bet: 4.20000000 Outcome: WIN Payment: 11.21404880 Profit: 7.0140488 Cumulative: -276.55206267

2012-07-28 00:42:29 <24000 Bet: 4.20000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.02050000 Profit: -4.1795 Cumulative: -280.73156267
2012-07-28 00:43:10 <24000 Bet: 6.80000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.03350000 Profit: -6.7665 Cumulative: -287.49806267
2012-07-28 00:43:39 <24000 Bet: 10.80000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.05350000 Profit: -10.7465 Cumulative: -298.24456267
2012-07-28 00:44:19 <24000 Bet: 17.20000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.08550000 Profit: -17.1145 Cumulative: -315.35906267
2012-07-28 00:48:23 <24000 Bet: 27.40000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.13650000 Profit: -27.2635 Cumulative: -342.62256267
2012-07-28 00:50:52 <24000 Bet: 43.80000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.21850000 Profit: -43.5815 Cumulative: -386.20406267
2012-07-28 00:51:23 <24000 Bet: 70.00000000 Outcome: LOSE Payment: 0.34950000 Profit: -69.6505 Cumulative: -455.85456267

The odds of losing 8 times in a row on that bet are 2.6%. That's kinda high, imo, for using this kind of strategy. If someone wants to play Martingale and last longer (the house will still eventually win), that probability should be under 1%.The only reason to play that strategy is to last long and the thrill of starting a run and hoping it doesn't go bust.

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 31, 2012, 01:38:34 PM

#164

So each time you win (97.4% of the time) you win 7, and each time you lose (2.6%) you lose 290.

Expected winnings per round: 0.974 * 7 - 0.026 * 290 = -0.722 BTC.

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byronbb

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 31, 2012, 09:07:23 PM

#165

I did some calculations for max bet size based on the Kelly Criterion and it seems they should be taking larger wagers for the higher % house wins. With a bankroll of 12K satoshidice should accept for the 50% bet, a max bet of 258btc. By the same token, for the 12% bet they should take a max bet of 281btc, not 120. Either they are taking bet sizes WAY to big for their bankroll, or they are not maximizing earnings by accepting higher limits for their other wagers.

To calculate this I used an excel function set I used for sportsbetting that I downloaded from here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/29621-simple-vba-sports-betting-functions-template-excel.html#post256487
The function is SBKELLY(win%,usodds ie -110, kelly size where 1 is max and 0.5 is half). In order for the function to work I had to convert some things from the satoshi website. Basically I was required to invert the players odds and frame it as a bet for the house at odds that paid out greater than the losses. In advantage gambling one seeks to maximize earnings while minimizing the risk of ruin so the Kelly Criterion is implemented. But this is as far as my understanding of it goes as I am merely a monkey with a spreadsheet.

Code:

Name,Bet Address,Win Odds,Price Multiplier,House Percent,Expected Return,Min Bet,Max Bet,House Wins %,Player wins %,Effective House %,Effective House Odds,Kelly Criterion % of Bankroll,Max Bet,Bankroll
lessthan 1,1dice1e6pdhLzzWQq7yMidf6j8eAg7pkY ,0.001500%,64000,1.84%,98.16%,0.001,0.05,99.998500%,0.000015625,0.999984375,-6399900,0.04,479.9999999,12000
lessthan 2,1dice1Qf4Br5EYjj9rnHWqgMVYnQWehYG ,0.003100%,31981.573,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.1,99.996900%,3.1268E-05,0.999968732,-3198057.3,0.008571237,102.854844,12000
lessthan 4,1dice2pxmRZrtqBVzixvWnxsMa7wN2GCK ,0.006100%,15990.789,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.2001,99.993900%,6.2536E-05,0.999937464,-1598978.9,0.024561871,294.742452,12000
lessthan 8,1dice2vQoUkQwDMbfDACM1xz6svEXdhYb ,0.012200%,7995.397,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.4002,99.987800%,0.000125072,0.999874928,-799439.7,0.024561566,294.738792,12000
lessthan 16,1dice2WmRTLf1dEk4HH3Xs8LDuXzaHEQU ,0.024400%,3997.701,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.8006,99.975600%,0.000250144,0.999749856,-399670.1,0.024560956,294.731472,12000
lessthan 32,1dice2xkjAAiphomEJA5NoowpuJ18HT1s ,0.048800%,1998.853,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,1.6017,99.951200%,0.000500287,0.999499713,-199785.3,0.024559736,294.716832,12000
lessthan 64,1dice2zdoxQHpGRNaAWiqbK82FQhr4fb5 ,0.097700%,999.429,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,3.205,99.902300%,0.001000571,0.998999429,-99842.9,0.023557867,282.694404,12000
lessthan 128,1dice37EemX64oHssTreXEFT3DXtZxVXK ,0.195300%,499.717,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,3.6902,99.804700%,0.002001133,0.997998867,-49871.7,0.024052699,288.632388,12000
lessthan 256,1dice3jkpTvevsohA4Np1yP4uKzG1SRLv ,0.390600%,249.861,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,7.3951,99.609400%,0.004002225,0.995997775,-24886.1,0.024042934,288.515208,12000
lessthan 512,1dice4J1mFEvVuFqD14HzdViHFGi9h4Pp ,0.781300%,124.933,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,14.8497,99.218700%,0.00800429,0.99199571,-12393.3,0.023898471,286.781652,12000
lessthan 1000,1dice5wwEZT2u6ESAdUGG6MHgCpbQqZiy ,1.525900%,63.968,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,29.227,98.474100%,0.015632816,0.984367184,-6296.8,0.023912288,286.947456,12000
lessthan 1500,1dice61SNWEKWdA8LN6G44ewsiQfuCvge ,2.288800%,42.647,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,44.1897,97.711200%,0.023448308,0.976551692,-4164.7,0.023895464,286.745568,12000
lessthan 2000,1dice6DPtUMBpWgv8i4pG8HMjXv9qDJWN ,3.051800%,31.987,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,59.3926,96.948200%,0.0312627,0.9687373,-3098.7,0.023820734,285.848808,12000
lessthan 3000,1dice6gJgPDYz8PLQyJb8cgPBnmWqCSuF ,4.577600%,21.326,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,57.4951,95.422400%,0.046891119,0.953108881,-2032.6,0.023781024,285.372288,12000
lessthan 4000,1dice6GV5Rz2iaifPvX7RMjfhaNPC8SXH ,6.103500%,15.996,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,77.9318,93.896500%,0.062515629,0.937484371,-1499.6,0.02368414,284.20968,12000
lessthan 6000,1dice6wBxymYi3t94heUAG6MpG5eceLG1 ,9.155300%,10.666,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,120.909,90.844700%,0.09375586,0.90624414,-966.6,0.023495702,281.948424,12000
lessthan 8000,1dice6YgEVBf88erBFra9BHf6ZMoyvG88 ,12.207000%,8,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,120.9568,87.793000%,0.125,0.875,-700,0.02344,281.28,12000
lessthan 12000,1dice7EYzJag7SxkdKXLr8Jn14WUb3Cf1 ,18.310500%,5.335,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,152.1241,81.689500%,0.187441425,0.812558575,-433.5,0.023134825,277.6179,12000
lessthan 16000,1dice7fUkz5h4z2wPc1wLMPWgB5mDwKDx ,24.414100%,4.003,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,219.6353,75.585900%,0.249812641,0.750187359,-300.3,0.022703577,272.442924,12000
lessthan 24000,1dice7W2AicHosf5EL3GFDUVga7TgtPFn ,36.621100%,2.67,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,63.378900%,0.374531835,0.625468165,-167,0.02221663,266.59956,12000
lessthan 32000,1dice8EMZmqKvrGE4Qc9bUFf9PX3xaYDp ,48.828100%,2.004,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,51.171900%,0.499001996,0.500998004,-100.4,0.021484876,257.818512,12000
lessthan 32768,1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6 ,50.000000%,1.957,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,50.000000%,0.510986203,0.489013797,104.4932079,0.0215,258,12000
lessthan 48000,1dice9wcMu5hLF4g81u8nioL5mmSHTApw ,73.242200%,1.338,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,26.757800%,0.747384155,0.252615845,295.8579882,0.020019364,240.232368,12000
lessthan 52000,1dicec9k7KpmQaA8Uc8aCCxfWnwEWzpXE ,79.345700%,1.235,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,20.654300%,0.809716599,0.190283401,425.5319149,0.020080605,240.96726,12000
lessthan 56000,1dicegEArYHgbwQZhvr5G9Ah2s7SFuW1y ,85.449200%,1.147,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,14.550800%,0.871839582,0.128160418,680.2721088,0.019897676,238.772112,12000
lessthan 60000,1diceDCd27Cc22HV3qPNZKwGnZ8QwhLTc ,91.552700%,1.071,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,8.447300%,0.933706816,0.066293184,1408.450704,0.019470583,233.646996,12000
lessthan 64000,1dice9wVtrKZTBbAZqz1XiTmboYyvpD3t ,97.656300%,1.004,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,2.343700%,0.996015936,0.003984064,25000,0.019530748,234.368976,12000

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 31, 2012, 09:11:23 PM

#166

Quote from: byronbb on July 31, 2012, 09:07:23 PM

I did some calculations for max bet size based on the Kelly Criterion and it seems they should be taking larger wagers for the higher % house wins.

And smaller at the opposite end - there's too much risk there.

How much do you calculate the max bet should be for 'lessthan 64000'? I got some huge number, like 10k BTC or something like that.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

July 31, 2012, 09:28:36 PM

#167

Quote from: dooglus on July 31, 2012, 09:11:23 PM

Quote from: byronbb on July 31, 2012, 09:07:23 PM

I did some calculations for max bet size based on the Kelly Criterion and it seems they should be taking larger wagers for the higher % house wins.

And smaller at the opposite end - there's too much risk there.

How much do you calculate the max bet should be for 'lessthan 64000'? I got some huge number, like 10k BTC or something like that.

Too much risk is only relative to bankroll, but yes, they have it backwards. For less than 64000 I only get 234.368976, for a bankroll of 12K. It is the lessthan 1 which is the amazing one. Apparently the max bet should be 480!! Of course 480 * 64000 is massively beyond 12k, so perhaps either this is a rounding problem OR it is correct and incorporating risk of ruin, which is so minuscule the risk of being in debt forever is obliterated by the more likely fortune.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 01, 2012, 05:43:05 AM

#168

Quote from: byronbb on July 31, 2012, 09:28:36 PM

Too much risk is only relative to bankroll, but yes, they have it backwards.

I think you must have pawed the wrong buttons on your spreadsheet. There's no way Kelly would recommend risking more than your bankroll on any bet, like your suggested max bet on lessthan 1 would be doing. No matter how favourable the odds (SD wins 65535 in 65536 cases), they're still betting 64000 times max bet on them winning - so max bet should better be less than 1/64000th of their bankroll.

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nibor

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 01, 2012, 12:26:44 PM

#169

I make the number 0.004 as the recommended max bet.

From wikipedia:
Fraction of bankroll = (p (b+1) -1)/b
p is probability of winning
b is the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1"); that is, you could win $b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet

So if you pretend that for the 64000 to one bet we reverse and pretend that SD bets 64000 and gets back 64001 when the customer "loses" and gets back nothing (i.e. customer keeps the 64000) when the customer "wins".
So p = (65535/65536)=0.999984741
And b= 1/64000 = 0.000015625
This make fraction = (0.999984741 (0.000015625 +1) - 1) 0.000015625
f=0.0234

So if they have a 12k BTC bankroll this is 280.8 BTC.
But remember this is what SD are "betting" in our case so we need to divide by 64000.

Recommended Max Bet = 280.8/64000 = 0.00438 BTC

Which sounds very low, but I think this is because the house edge is so small. Meaning that if you did have a loss and pay out 280.8BTC takes a LONG time before you make it back.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 01, 2012, 12:52:46 PM

#170

And repeating this for the less than 64000 bet we have:

b = (1/ (1.004-1)) = 250
p= ((64000-65536)/65536)=0.0234375

f= 0.01953

So should bet 12000 * 0.02 = 234BTC (assuming 12k BTC bankroll)
Again have to translate this into max bet.

Max Bet = 234/1.004 = 233BTC

Which again sounds low to me, but again this I assume is due to how low the house edge is.

In fact they should just adjust all their max bets so that the max payout is about 2% of their bankroll.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 01, 2012, 05:33:03 PM

#171

Quote from: nibor on August 01, 2012, 12:26:44 PM

So if you pretend that for the 64000 to one bet we reverse and pretend that SD bets 64000 and gets back 64001 when the customer "loses" and gets back nothing (i.e. customer keeps the 64000) when the customer "wins".

You're close, but off by one I think.

When the customer bets 1 on "lessthan 1" and wins, they get back 64000.

From SD's point of view, they have lost 63999, not 64000.

So SD is betting 63999 and getting back 64000 when the customer loses.

Re-run your numbers taking that into consideration. You'll find a significantly different result in the "lessthan 64000" case.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 01, 2012, 06:04:33 PM

#172

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-01 10:47am (up to block 191840)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 12128 | 0 (0.00000) | 11844 | 284 | 73.22 | 0.01 | 18.39 | 73.20 | 0.026
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1106 | 0 (0.00000) | 1036 | 70 | 16.69 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 16.68 | 0.011
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1656 | 0 (0.00000) | 1622 | 34 | 20.31 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 20.29 | 0.105
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1365 | 1 (0.00076) | 1323 | 41 | 32.61 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 24.56 | 24.693
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1669 | 1 (0.00061) | 1635 | 33 | 66.64 | 4.19 | 7.40 | 62.44 | 6.296
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4088 | 2 (0.00049) | 4075 | 11 | 279.44 | 103.07 | 1.29 | 176.36 | 36.887
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 5861 | 8 (0.00137) | 5836 | 17 | 298.52 | 123.01 | 55.64 | 175.51 | 41.206
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 6866 | 17 (0.00249) | 6801 | 48 | 1287.22 | 1173.89 | 40.25 | 113.32 | 91.196
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 6031 | 29 (0.00482) | 5988 | 14 | 630.00 | 572.02 | 13.11 | 57.98 | 90.795
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 9084 | 65 (0.00716) | 9014 | 5 | 1752.58 | 1184.79 | 9.35 | 567.79 | 67.603
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 17246 | 263 (0.01525) | 16979 | 4 | 4194.47 | 4557.80 | 1.80 | -363.32 | 108.662
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 8986 | 211 (0.02350) | 8769 | 6 | 3257.16 | 3669.82 | 15.00 | -412.66 | 112.669
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 14110 | 441 (0.03126) | 13666 | 3 | 3692.13 | 3410.03 | 9.24 | 282.10 | 92.359
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 9034 | 434 (0.04808) | 8593 | 7 | 5311.55 | 6813.67 | 24.99 | -1502.11 | 128.280
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 10336 | 642 (0.06213) | 9691 | 3 | 3579.01 | 3178.72 | 31.20 | 400.28 | 88.816
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 17137 | 1623 (0.09476) | 15505 | 9 | 9096.03 | 9252.83 | 7.01 | -156.80 | 101.724
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 38906 | 4802 (0.12347) | 34089 | 15 | 7052.62 | 6276.49 | 0.00 | 776.12 | 88.995
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 17481 | 3319 (0.18993) | 14156 | 6 | 7074.36 | 7258.83 | 14.50 | -184.47 | 102.608
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 47546 | 11554 (0.24305) | 35984 | 8 | 16490.17 | 17125.87 | 347.79 | -635.69 | 103.855
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 34702 | 12830 (0.37008) | 21838 | 34 | 15779.02 | 15752.11 | 212.63 | 26.91 | 99.829
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 337748 | 164618 (0.48762) | 172977 | 153 | 124220.31 | 125045.39 | 2173.21 | -825.07 | 100.664
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 139303 | 69498 (0.49921) | 69717 | 88 | 57282.04 | 55445.16 | 789.20 | 1836.88 | 96.793
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 106598 | 78412 (0.73599) | 28127 | 59 | 96518.18 | 94807.08 | 467.98 | 1711.09 | 98.227
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 2352 | 1891 (0.80400) | 461 | 0 | 6379.34 | 6598.82 | 0.00 | -219.47 | 103.440
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 2074 | 1765 (0.85183) | 307 | 2 | 2412.50 | 2412.63 | 0.00 | -0.13 | 100.005
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 678 | 623 (0.92296) | 52 | 3 | 408.63 | 400.03 | 0.00 | 8.60 | 97.895
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6083 | 5827 (0.97883) | 126 | 130 | 5178.49 | 4981.24 | 239.20 | 197.25 | 96.191
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 860174 | 358876 | 500211 | 1087 | 372383.39 | 370155.69 | 4491.23 | 2227.69 | 99.402
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 2227.69536869 BTC (0.598%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 433.11497500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 1794.58039369 BTC (0.482%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 2642435 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1583590 (59.9%)
Blockchain MB: 1112.8 : SatoshiDice Tx: 651.2 (58.5%)

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 01, 2012, 06:58:55 PM

#173

Quote from: dooglus on August 01, 2012, 05:43:05 AM

Quote from: byronbb on July 31, 2012, 09:28:36 PM

Too much risk is only relative to bankroll, but yes, they have it backwards.

Yes I think the function breaks because I input the house odds of -6399900 (lay 6399900 to win 1) and it is much too large. I believe the rest are correct. Here is a kelly calculator http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/ if anyone wants to play with it.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 03, 2012, 04:43:08 PM

#174

More bad results for SatoshiDice. And they seem to have stopped responding to users with payment issues too (https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/96664.0, https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/77870.0)

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-03 09:32am (up to block 192158)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 12426 | 0 (0.00000) | 12141 | 285 | 78.33 | 0.01 | 18.39 | 78.31 | 0.025
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1144 | 0 (0.00000) | 1074 | 70 | 17.19 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 17.19 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1691 | 0 (0.00000) | 1657 | 34 | 20.56 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 20.54 | 0.104
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1427 | 1 (0.00072) | 1385 | 41 | 33.70 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 25.65 | 23.894
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1697 | 1 (0.00060) | 1663 | 33 | 66.72 | 4.19 | 7.40 | 62.52 | 6.289
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4130 | 2 (0.00049) | 4117 | 11 | 298.93 | 103.16 | 1.29 | 195.76 | 34.512
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 5931 | 8 (0.00135) | 5906 | 17 | 365.95 | 123.33 | 55.64 | 242.62 | 33.701
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 6916 | 17 (0.00248) | 6850 | 49 | 1316.72 | 1174.03 | 44.25 | 142.69 | 89.163
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 6083 | 30 (0.00494) | 6039 | 14 | 664.75 | 797.04 | 13.11 | -132.29 | 119.901
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 9169 | 65 (0.00709) | 9099 | 5 | 1773.18 | 1184.87 | 9.35 | 588.31 | 66.822
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 17847 | 270 (0.01513) | 17573 | 4 | 5075.12 | 5329.51 | 1.80 | -254.39 | 105.013
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 9031 | 212 (0.02349) | 8813 | 6 | 3258.33 | 3670.25 | 15.00 | -411.91 | 112.642
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 17435 | 552 (0.03167) | 16880 | 3 | 3899.21 | 3437.95 | 9.24 | 461.25 | 88.171
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 9127 | 436 (0.04781) | 8684 | 7 | 5313.00 | 6813.90 | 24.99 | -1500.90 | 128.250
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 10406 | 645 (0.06200) | 9758 | 3 | 3585.61 | 3179.24 | 31.20 | 406.36 | 88.667
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 17205 | 1631 (0.09485) | 15565 | 9 | 9102.68 | 9262.59 | 7.01 | -159.90 | 101.757
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 39347 | 4847 (0.12323) | 34485 | 15 | 7092.18 | 6283.95 | 0.00 | 808.23 | 88.604
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 17571 | 3337 (0.18998) | 14228 | 6 | 7149.07 | 7383.88 | 14.50 | -234.80 | 103.284
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 48514 | 11806 (0.24339) | 36700 | 8 | 18134.74 | 19337.33 | 347.79 | -1202.59 | 106.631
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 34886 | 12900 (0.37014) | 21952 | 34 | 15838.13 | 15832.20 | 212.63 | 5.93 | 99.963
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 341907 | 166673 (0.48770) | 175081 | 153 | 134470.80 | 135865.93 | 2173.21 | -1395.12 | 101.037
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 141492 | 70579 (0.49913) | 70825 | 88 | 60545.43 | 58873.73 | 789.20 | 1671.70 | 97.239
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 108148 | 79546 (0.73594) | 28542 | 60 | 98663.72 | 97111.92 | 467.98 | 1551.79 | 98.427
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 2514 | 2011 (0.80024) | 502 | 1 | 6939.36 | 7160.55 | 0.00 | -221.19 | 103.188
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 2175 | 1846 (0.84952) | 327 | 2 | 2961.91 | 2950.07 | 0.00 | 11.84 | 99.600
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 736 | 670 (0.91530) | 62 | 4 | 436.95 | 424.04 | 0.00 | 12.91 | 97.045
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6117 | 5860 (0.97879) | 127 | 130 | 5188.65 | 4991.42 | 239.20 | 197.22 | 96.199
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 875072 | 363945 | 510035 | 1092 | 392291.03 | 391303.27 | 4495.23 | 987.75 | 99.748
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 987.75913595 BTC (0.252%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 440.67125000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 547.08788595 BTC (0.139%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 2702068 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1611343 (59.6%)
Blockchain MB: 1137.0 : SatoshiDice Tx: 662.5 (58.3%)

The follow 12 bets are pending still:

Code:

72b97a20c5cee0b9f05b5203d0361263edb41b752a15e2838ac2b3b6789f74c2 1 191241 11:31:37 Jul-28-12 32.00000000 1dice97E 1BCgHiW4jhUN1vggaeR3aSQpWhRxMLXjRg
18455d8b2020cef49579fa2f024375a43e242f4bb0c303cba526327944c65e46 0 191269 17:47:08 Jul-28-12 1.00000000 1dicegEA 14q94SKrm8W3yBzhi2BZ8xm8VJvPWcXAMG
6071357b4e24964f398de274e55c85cadaf33e1f54acaa284a7dfc23933feff3 0 191269 17:47:08 Jul-28-12 1.00000000 1dicegEA 14q94SKrm8W3yBzhi2BZ8xm8VJvPWcXAMG
802455195c92092bf863c82f77baec33e6f21fd8de2aa604826918d56e76d205 0 191343 07:15:28 Jul-29-12 0.05000000 1dice8EM 1GfDEVE4g5ghVp1e3v2Q1VqEMvG9FVVPio
555cc5382acc939178dcb81cd83172984eec99b767f78bf05389c94657d01020 1 191344 07:21:21 Jul-29-12 1.00000000 1dice8EM 1HcUSJNPJtP69ajpnUmFoU3WKDxssdNjMi
bb8d9eca3e807622e92472c4043a3573d4521c02927e563b58b8ad4a3d9d9173 1 191345 07:28:15 Jul-29-12 3.00000000 1dice8EM 1LQh4yvTW552ibohytuzLV9V8dbfieVdea
eb3ee5f086b285fa40208257b59091b065d4f1f76b240a15d965da3790baa062 1 191486 23:01:51 Jul-29-12 0.80000000 1dice97E 1FjvstaGAGyCXBMP8u2PkDk9tm1dkRhpm7
434cb9541a56d496e2d0a240f7ee75b4119317a5e32f79a71e5c5511289f1ebc 1 191486 23:01:51 Jul-29-12 0.20000000 1dice8EM 1LTMipT8ebJ1MNFRP9BdfkDYzW3RzLXoit
e7fe8ae530f9beaee6c0d8b89fb5d5aeee0a1a49a03be743e1bf796d66306c82 0 191521 04:29:24 Jul-30-12 0.20000000 1dice8EM 1ArM4VrvgiKExHYKFHwytjFusmr633ZjCU
c508831ed64c7f4ff0d261d2971e38dab61e550e445ee3eb8f476d47cea0c12c 0 191521 04:29:24 Jul-30-12 2.00000000 1dice9wc 17CzCQobrCofVnB8FYSn4suvYuT7g8Woxw
7bac881cf5bd745b944f3d1bec3934df70ef5b29a991b3ad8f6772ab853aa42a 1 191642 22:47:06 Jul-30-12 0.05000000 1dice6wB 19Jjrd4ue3uCcXYJrVwx7PhxTm4MZdC4YY
e838d3a4494e91c747a3704fd3ee0f05840c576e960bd97a5947b54a301e364a 1 191642 22:47:06 Jul-30-12 0.05000000 1dice6wB 1FoejzNLBRLQiewgyQmP3PJAipbmaScXii

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 03, 2012, 04:51:34 PM

#175

Ouch. 2k btc down in a week.

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 04, 2012, 05:03:19 PM

#176

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-04 09:52am (up to block 192308)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 12726 | 0 (0.00000) | 12441 | 285 | 80.15 | 0.01 | 18.39 | 80.13 | 0.024
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1153 | 0 (0.00000) | 1083 | 70 | 17.25 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 17.25 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1704 | 0 (0.00000) | 1670 | 34 | 20.62 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 20.60 | 0.103
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1439 | 1 (0.00072) | 1397 | 41 | 33.96 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 25.91 | 23.711
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1706 | 1 (0.00060) | 1672 | 33 | 66.75 | 4.19 | 7.40 | 62.55 | 6.286
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4138 | 2 (0.00048) | 4125 | 11 | 298.94 | 103.16 | 1.29 | 195.77 | 34.511
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 5939 | 8 (0.00135) | 5914 | 17 | 365.96 | 123.33 | 55.64 | 242.62 | 33.701
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 6925 | 17 (0.00247) | 6859 | 49 | 1316.73 | 1174.03 | 44.25 | 142.70 | 89.162
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 6087 | 30 (0.00494) | 6043 | 14 | 664.90 | 797.04 | 13.11 | -132.14 | 119.874
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 9175 | 65 (0.00709) | 9104 | 6 | 1773.29 | 1184.87 | 9.35 | 588.42 | 66.818
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 18012 | 272 (0.01510) | 17736 | 4 | 5102.75 | 5351.99 | 1.80 | -249.24 | 104.884
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 9041 | 212 (0.02346) | 8823 | 6 | 3258.95 | 3670.25 | 15.00 | -411.29 | 112.620
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 17448 | 552 (0.03164) | 16893 | 3 | 3899.44 | 3437.95 | 9.24 | 461.48 | 88.165
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 9136 | 436 (0.04776) | 8693 | 7 | 5313.08 | 6813.90 | 24.99 | -1500.82 | 128.248
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 10430 | 646 (0.06195) | 9781 | 3 | 3588.99 | 3180.85 | 31.20 | 408.13 | 88.628
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 17269 | 1634 (0.09468) | 15625 | 10 | 9107.15 | 9268.52 | 7.01 | -161.36 | 101.772
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 40370 | 4976 (0.12331) | 35379 | 15 | 7099.84 | 6288.93 | 0.00 | 810.90 | 88.579
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 17596 | 3340 (0.18988) | 14250 | 6 | 7171.77 | 7397.36 | 14.50 | -225.58 | 103.145
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 48724 | 11856 (0.24337) | 36860 | 8 | 18305.17 | 19504.91 | 347.79 | -1199.73 | 106.554
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 35007 | 12939 (0.36997) | 22034 | 34 | 15984.43 | 16012.78 | 212.63 | -28.34 | 100.177
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 344170 | 167778 (0.48771) | 176234 | 158 | 137193.46 | 138474.46 | 2173.21 | -1281.00 | 100.934
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 142029 | 70824 (0.49897) | 71115 | 90 | 61723.30 | 59759.11 | 789.20 | 1964.18 | 96.818
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 109057 | 80227 (0.73605) | 28769 | 61 | 99837.53 | 98332.61 | 467.98 | 1504.91 | 98.493
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 2558 | 2045 (0.80008) | 511 | 2 | 7692.46 | 7939.47 | 0.00 | -247.01 | 103.211
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 2214 | 1879 (0.84946) | 333 | 2 | 3005.98 | 2998.72 | 0.00 | 7.25 | 99.759
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 750 | 683 (0.91555) | 63 | 4 | 440.17 | 427.42 | 0.00 | 12.74 | 97.105
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6149 | 5892 (0.97890) | 127 | 130 | 5199.85 | 5002.66 | 239.20 | 197.19 | 96.208
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 880952 | 366315 | 513534 | 1103 | 398562.99 | 397256.72 | 4495.23 | 1306.27 | 99.672
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 1306.27359556 BTC (0.328%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 443.62750000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 862.64609556 BTC (0.216%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 2730069 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1622605 (59.4%)
Blockchain MB: 1148.7 : SatoshiDice Tx: 667.0 (58.1%)

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 05, 2012, 03:06:49 AM

#177

Quote from: gigavps on August 03, 2012, 04:51:34 PM

Ouch. 2k btc down in a week.

Gambling with small edges is soul crushing.

Pay-per-GB seedbox for BTC!! https://justseed.it/
http://www.thebitcoinpage.com/

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 06, 2012, 08:48:07 AM

#178

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-06 01:45am (up to block 192544)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 12920 | 0 (0.00000) | 12630 | 290 | 81.60 | 0.01 | 18.79 | 81.58 | 0.024
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1164 | 0 (0.00000) | 1094 | 70 | 17.38 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 17.37 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1723 | 0 (0.00000) | 1689 | 34 | 20.66 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 20.64 | 0.103
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1467 | 1 (0.00070) | 1425 | 41 | 34.29 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 26.24 | 23.482
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1710 | 1 (0.00060) | 1676 | 33 | 67.42 | 4.19 | 7.40 | 63.22 | 6.228
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4147 | 2 (0.00048) | 4134 | 11 | 299.18 | 103.16 | 1.29 | 196.01 | 34.484
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 5977 | 8 (0.00134) | 5952 | 17 | 451.16 | 123.74 | 55.64 | 327.42 | 27.427
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 6944 | 17 (0.00247) | 6877 | 50 | 1323.08 | 1174.05 | 44.25 | 149.02 | 88.737
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 6147 | 30 (0.00489) | 6103 | 14 | 688.51 | 797.14 | 13.11 | -108.63 | 115.778
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 9213 | 66 (0.00717) | 9141 | 6 | 1775.47 | 1185.00 | 9.35 | 590.47 | 66.743
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 18247 | 273 (0.01496) | 17970 | 4 | 5124.84 | 5352.24 | 1.80 | -227.40 | 104.437
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 9063 | 213 (0.02352) | 8844 | 6 | 3262.45 | 3674.52 | 15.00 | -412.07 | 112.631
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 17493 | 552 (0.03156) | 16938 | 3 | 3919.64 | 3438.04 | 9.24 | 481.60 | 87.713
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 9150 | 436 (0.04769) | 8707 | 7 | 5317.21 | 6813.92 | 24.99 | -1496.70 | 128.148
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 10476 | 649 (0.06197) | 9824 | 3 | 3608.04 | 3262.48 | 31.20 | 345.55 | 90.423
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 17292 | 1639 (0.09484) | 15643 | 10 | 9111.90 | 9282.82 | 7.01 | -170.91 | 101.876
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 44139 | 5438 (0.12324) | 38686 | 15 | 7143.14 | 6316.10 | 0.00 | 827.04 | 88.422
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 17640 | 3353 (0.19014) | 14281 | 6 | 7190.69 | 7437.73 | 14.50 | -247.04 | 103.436
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 49212 | 11959 (0.24305) | 37245 | 8 | 19306.88 | 19815.59 | 347.79 | -508.71 | 102.635
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 35078 | 12960 (0.36982) | 22084 | 34 | 16054.77 | 16016.06 | 212.63 | 38.71 | 99.759
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 349050 | 170134 (0.48764) | 178758 | 158 | 143712.97 | 145149.28 | 2173.21 | -1436.31 | 100.999
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 143495 | 71535 (0.49883) | 71870 | 90 | 62532.13 | 60586.41 | 789.20 | 1945.71 | 96.888
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 112031 | 82414 (0.73604) | 29555 | 62 | 104296.60 | 102844.95 | 467.98 | 1451.65 | 98.608
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 2730 | 2175 (0.79729) | 553 | 2 | 10428.72 | 10516.91 | 0.00 | -88.18 | 100.846
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 2279 | 1933 (0.84892) | 344 | 2 | 3041.60 | 3034.68 | 0.00 | 6.92 | 99.772
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 824 | 748 (0.91220) | 72 | 4 | 497.92 | 480.05 | 0.00 | 17.86 | 96.411
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6195 | 5937 (0.97890) | 128 | 130 | 6759.11 | 6568.78 | 239.20 | 190.32 | 97.184
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 895806 | 372473 | 522223 | 1110 | 416067.48 | 413986.07 | 4495.63 | 2081.41 | 99.500
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 2081.41050452 BTC (0.500%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 451.09597500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 1630.31452952 BTC (0.392%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 2785943 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1651311 (59.3%)
Blockchain MB: 1170.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 678.2 (57.9%)

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 07, 2012, 05:35:28 PM

#179

Quote

Results: 2012-Aug-07 10:25am (up to block 192749)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 13026 | 0 (0.00000) | 12736 | 290 | 82.87 | 0.01 | 18.79 | 82.85 | 0.023
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1167 | 0 (0.00000) | 1097 | 70 | 17.49 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 17.49 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1729 | 0 (0.00000) | 1695 | 34 | 20.76 | 0.02 | 2.22 | 20.74 | 0.103
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1470 | 1 (0.00070) | 1428 | 41 | 34.30 | 8.05 | 4.15 | 26.24 | 23.478
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1714 | 1 (0.00059) | 1680 | 33 | 67.45 | 4.19 | 7.40 | 63.25 | 6.225
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 4154 | 2 (0.00048) | 4141 | 11 | 299.24 | 103.16 | 1.29 | 196.07 | 34.477
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 5984 | 8 (0.00134) | 5959 | 17 | 460.78 | 123.78 | 55.64 | 336.99 | 26.864
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 6948 | 17 (0.00246) | 6881 | 50 | 1323.10 | 1174.05 | 44.25 | 149.04 | 88.735
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 6150 | 30 (0.00489) | 6106 | 14 | 688.63 | 797.14 | 13.11 | -108.51 | 115.758
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 9225 | 66 (0.00716) | 9152 | 7 | 1775.51 | 1185.00 | 9.35 | 590.51 | 66.741
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 18323 | 274 (0.01496) | 18045 | 4 | 5134.94 | 5355.48 | 1.80 | -220.53 | 104.295
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 9078 | 213 (0.02348) | 8859 | 6 | 3262.56 | 3674.52 | 15.00 | -411.95 | 112.627
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 17504 | 552 (0.03154) | 16949 | 3 | 3923.82 | 3438.06 | 9.24 | 485.76 | 87.620
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 9163 | 436 (0.04762) | 8720 | 7 | 5318.30 | 6813.92 | 24.99 | -1495.62 | 128.122
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 10481 | 649 (0.06194) | 9829 | 3 | 3608.17 | 3262.48 | 31.20 | 345.68 | 90.419
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 17322 | 1640 (0.09473) | 15672 | 10 | 9113.99 | 9285.49 | 7.01 | -171.49 | 101.882
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 48414 | 5955 (0.12304) | 42444 | 15 | 7296.07 | 6389.87 | 0.00 | 906.19 | 87.580
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 17694 | 3359 (0.18990) | 14329 | 6 | 7195.07 | 7438.72 | 14.50 | -243.65 | 103.386
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 49593 | 12050 (0.24302) | 37535 | 8 | 20577.23 | 20883.81 | 347.79 | -306.57 | 101.490
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 35232 | 13017 (0.36982) | 22181 | 34 | 16162.38 | 16089.79 | 212.63 | 72.58 | 99.551
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 351399 | 171260 (0.48759) | 179981 | 158 | 147814.47 | 148798.10 | 2173.21 | -983.62 | 100.665
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 144654 | 72099 (0.49874) | 72462 | 93 | 63834.05 | 61894.62 | 789.20 | 1939.42 | 96.962
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 112600 | 82835 (0.73608) | 29700 | 65 | 104631.94 | 103195.29 | 467.98 | 1436.64 | 98.627
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 3040 | 2422 (0.79750) | 615 | 3 | 11401.07 | 11592.72 | 400.00 | -191.65 | 101.681
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 2532 | 2152 (0.85127) | 376 | 4 | 3570.83 | 3565.69 | 400.00 | 5.13 | 99.856
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 890 | 810 (0.91422) | 76 | 4 | 565.67 | 551.34 | 0.00 | 14.33 | 97.466
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6242 | 5983 (0.97889) | 129 | 130 | 9332.45 | 9143.49 | 239.20 | 188.95 | 97.975
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 905728 | 375831 | 528777 | 1120 | 427513.25 | 424768.94 | 5295.64 | 2744.31 | 99.358
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 2744.31743519 BTC (0.642%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 456.10755000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 2288.20988519 BTC (0.535%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 2828360 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1670696 (59.1%)
Blockchain MB: 1186.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 685.7 (57.8%)

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zvs

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

August 08, 2012, 06:38:07 PM

#180

I like what this guy is doing:

http://blockchain.info/address/15tcsumFPsrw2p9Egmk7wGszFJVxpw7UiD?offset=2200

note, that the 2200 is the current 'starting point', it'll probably be higher for ppl that click on this after more than a minute or two.

it'd take some pretty incredible odds to bust out like that. looks like initial funding was 15BTC

(*if i had that bot, i'd give that a go myself)

(ed to add that it's at 51.46 currently)

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