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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis (Read 192936 times)

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 05, 2012, 06:09:38 PM

#241

Quote

Results: 2012-Sep-05 11:07am (up to block 197379)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 17796 | 0 (0.00000) | 17447 | 349 | 125.48 | 0.01 | 25.08 | 125.46 | 0.015
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1643 | 0 (0.00000) | 1572 | 71 | 23.58 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 23.58 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2221 | 0 (0.00000) | 2186 | 35 | 26.86 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 26.84 | 0.097
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2297 | 1 (0.00044) | 2253 | 43 | 50.13 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.07 | 16.083
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2431 | 1 (0.00042) | 2394 | 36 | 88.91 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 84.67 | 4.774
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5218 | 3 (0.00058) | 5204 | 11 | 374.28 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 70.95 | 81.042
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7481 | 8 (0.00107) | 7451 | 22 | 635.50 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 511.12 | 19.573
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9456 | 19 (0.00202) | 9382 | 55 | 1584.69 | 1274.62 | 44.25 | 310.06 | 80.434
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9425 | 43 (0.00457) | 9368 | 14 | 1274.13 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -28.19 | 102.213
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12943 | 99 (0.00765) | 12835 | 9 | 2498.04 | 1846.93 | 9.35 | 651.11 | 73.935
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 26093 | 385 (0.01476) | 25701 | 7 | 8096.17 | 7446.09 | 1.80 | 650.07 | 91.971
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14096 | 321 (0.02278) | 13769 | 6 | 4649.72 | 4810.27 | 15.00 | -160.55 | 103.453
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22061 | 687 (0.03115) | 21370 | 4 | 5462.35 | 4615.41 | 9.24 | 846.94 | 84.495
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14664 | 678 (0.04626) | 13979 | 7 | 6765.36 | 8050.75 | 24.99 | -1285.38 | 119.000
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15173 | 938 (0.06184) | 14231 | 4 | 4625.93 | 4107.13 | 31.20 | 518.80 | 88.785
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 19957 | 1880 (0.09428) | 18061 | 16 | 9643.44 | 9734.68 | 7.01 | -91.24 | 100.946
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 76828 | 9424 (0.12270) | 67383 | 21 | 9723.48 | 8399.75 | 0.00 | 1323.73 | 86.386
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19853 | 3738 (0.18841) | 16102 | 13 | 7849.58 | 7961.51 | 14.50 | -111.92 | 101.426
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 66150 | 16048 (0.24268) | 50081 | 21 | 31409.18 | 31335.32 | 347.79 | 73.86 | 99.765
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 52828 | 19450 (0.36845) | 33338 | 40 | 26798.26 | 26144.38 | 212.63 | 653.87 | 97.560
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 465410 | 226747 (0.48751) | 238363 | 300 | 285300.27 | 283654.48 | 2173.29 | 1645.78 | 99.423
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 169551 | 84455 (0.49858) | 84936 | 160 | 103655.08 | 100512.75 | 1045.21 | 3142.32 | 96.968
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 141934 | 104445 (0.73625) | 37416 | 73 | 136077.06 | 134003.59 | 467.98 | 2073.46 | 98.476
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 9606 | 7649 (0.79660) | 1953 | 4 | 19134.58 | 19018.36 | 400.00 | 116.22 | 99.393
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 8037 | 6882 (0.85725) | 1146 | 9 | 8485.46 | 8324.96 | 400.00 | 160.50 | 98.109
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 3836 | 3508 (0.91593) | 322 | 6 | 5231.26 | 5245.31 | 0.00 | -14.05 | 100.269
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7245 | 6966 (0.97961) | 145 | 134 | 15674.20 | 15397.37 | 239.21 | 276.83 | 98.234
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1166304 | 475213 | 689828 | 1263 | 290428.82 | 282264.54 | 142.68 | 8164.28 | 97.189
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 37929 | 19162 | 18560 | 207 | 404834.28 | 401361.60 | 5418.35 | 3472.68 | 99.142
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1204233 | 494375 | 708388 | 1470 | 695263.11 | 683626.14 | 5561.04 | 11636.97 | 98.326
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 11636.97091635 BTC (1.674%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 606.52317500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11030.44774135 BTC (1.587%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3899476 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2222714 (57.0%)
Blockchain MB: 1616.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 909.2 (56.2%)

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 07, 2012, 12:26:38 AM

#242

Quote

Results: 2012-Sep-06 05:15pm (up to block 197598)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 17979 | 0 (0.00000) | 17630 | 349 | 126.43 | 0.01 | 25.08 | 126.41 | 0.015
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1655 | 0 (0.00000) | 1584 | 71 | 23.79 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 23.79 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2234 | 0 (0.00000) | 2199 | 35 | 27.08 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.06 | 0.096
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2323 | 1 (0.00044) | 2279 | 43 | 50.26 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.20 | 16.042
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2442 | 1 (0.00042) | 2405 | 36 | 88.92 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 84.68 | 4.773
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5229 | 3 (0.00057) | 5215 | 11 | 374.30 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 70.97 | 81.037
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7494 | 8 (0.00107) | 7464 | 22 | 635.52 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 511.13 | 19.572
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9477 | 19 (0.00202) | 9403 | 55 | 1585.15 | 1274.62 | 44.25 | 310.52 | 80.410
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9444 | 43 (0.00456) | 9387 | 14 | 1274.26 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -28.06 | 102.203
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12990 | 99 (0.00763) | 12882 | 9 | 2501.19 | 1846.94 | 9.35 | 654.25 | 73.842
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 26177 | 387 (0.01479) | 25783 | 7 | 8097.57 | 7446.22 | 1.80 | 651.34 | 91.956
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14155 | 321 (0.02269) | 13828 | 6 | 4650.29 | 4810.27 | 15.00 | -159.98 | 103.440
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22118 | 688 (0.03111) | 21426 | 4 | 5463.42 | 4615.84 | 9.24 | 847.58 | 84.486
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14697 | 680 (0.04629) | 14010 | 7 | 6765.63 | 8051.34 | 24.99 | -1285.71 | 119.004
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15223 | 943 (0.06196) | 14276 | 4 | 4627.34 | 4109.50 | 31.20 | 517.84 | 88.809
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20005 | 1884 (0.09426) | 18104 | 17 | 9646.02 | 9746.32 | 7.01 | -100.29 | 101.040
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 79138 | 9735 (0.12305) | 69382 | 21 | 9824.14 | 8514.42 | 0.00 | 1309.71 | 86.668
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19904 | 3749 (0.18848) | 16142 | 13 | 7851.61 | 7963.09 | 14.50 | -111.47 | 101.420
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 68057 | 16550 (0.24325) | 51486 | 21 | 38922.42 | 38579.23 | 347.79 | 343.19 | 99.118
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 54561 | 20078 (0.36827) | 34442 | 41 | 27638.35 | 26967.60 | 212.63 | 670.74 | 97.573
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 469757 | 228920 (0.48763) | 240537 | 300 | 286958.80 | 285477.88 | 2173.29 | 1480.92 | 99.484
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 170584 | 84988 (0.49869) | 85435 | 161 | 106078.31 | 103094.76 | 1045.21 | 2983.55 | 97.187
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 142538 | 104872 (0.73612) | 37593 | 73 | 136316.15 | 134229.10 | 467.98 | 2087.04 | 98.469
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10000 | 7961 (0.79642) | 2035 | 4 | 19294.44 | 19188.68 | 400.00 | 105.76 | 99.452
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 8618 | 7398 (0.85933) | 1211 | 9 | 9007.45 | 8849.79 | 400.00 | 157.66 | 98.250
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4569 | 4180 (0.91606) | 383 | 6 | 7700.03 | 7709.68 | 0.00 | -9.65 | 100.125
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7285 | 7005 (0.97958) | 146 | 134 | 15798.82 | 15519.72 | 239.21 | 279.09 | 98.233
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1180123 | 481033 | 697824 | 1266 | 294387.86 | 286315.59 | 142.68 | 8072.27 | 97.258
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 38530 | 19480 | 18843 | 207 | 416939.97 | 413421.91 | 5418.35 | 3518.06 | 99.156
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1218653 | 500513 | 716667 | 1473 | 711327.84 | 699737.50 | 5561.04 | 11590.34 | 98.371
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 11590.34243289 BTC (1.629%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 613.86207500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 10976.48035789 BTC (1.543%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3953397 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2250929 (56.9%)
Blockchain MB: 1638.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 920.7 (56.2%)

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 07, 2012, 12:30:14 AM

#243

I looked into the recent 1200 BTC spike down and back up, and found it was almost entirely due to a single person.

Address 13rwnU2B6dmx66EUZ1q27ew9owS9t1FJYu played 'lessthan 16000' over and over.

In block 197429 the stategy worked, winning them 1300 BTC:

BET 16 WIN 48.04263600
BET 16 WIN 48.04263600
BET 16 WIN 48.04263600
BET 16 LOSE -15.92050000
BET 20 WIN 60.05342000
BET 20 LOSE -19.90050000
BET 25 WIN 75.06690000
BET 32 WIN 96.08577200
BET 32 LOSE -31.84050000
BET 32 LOSE -31.84050000
BET 40 LOSE -39.80050000
BET 64 LOSE -63.68050000
BET 80 WIN 240.21518000
BET 128 WIN 384.34458800
BET 128 LOSE -127.36050000
BET 200 WIN 600.53870000

In block 197430 the luck ran out, losing 1400 BTC back to the house:

BET 20 LOSE -19.90050000
BET 40 LOSE -39.80050000
BET 40 LOSE -39.80050000
BET 80 LOSE -79.60050000
BET 80 LOSE -79.60050000
BET 100 LOSE -99.50050000
BET 180 LOSE -179.10050000
BET 210 LOSE -208.95050000
BET 219 LOSE -217.90550000
BET 219 LOSE -217.90550000
BET 219 LOSE -217.90550000

There were lots of smaller bets. I've only listed and counted the bigger ones.

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 08, 2012, 05:24:59 AM

#244

Quote

Results: 2012-Sep-07 10:23pm (up to block 197806)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18074 | 0 (0.00000) | 17725 | 349 | 128.36 | 0.01 | 25.08 | 128.34 | 0.015
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1668 | 0 (0.00000) | 1597 | 71 | 23.94 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 23.93 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2257 | 0 (0.00000) | 2222 | 35 | 27.41 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.38 | 0.095
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2355 | 1 (0.00043) | 2311 | 43 | 50.62 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.55 | 15.931
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2452 | 1 (0.00041) | 2415 | 36 | 88.95 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 84.71 | 4.772
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5255 | 3 (0.00057) | 5241 | 11 | 374.47 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 71.15 | 81.000
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7523 | 8 (0.00107) | 7493 | 22 | 635.73 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 511.34 | 19.566
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9529 | 19 (0.00201) | 9455 | 55 | 1590.29 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 315.65 | 80.151
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9499 | 43 (0.00453) | 9442 | 14 | 1276.52 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -25.81 | 102.022
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14090 | 104 (0.00739) | 13977 | 9 | 2611.18 | 1909.42 | 9.35 | 701.75 | 73.125
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 26904 | 400 (0.01487) | 26496 | 8 | 8162.30 | 7530.68 | 1.80 | 631.61 | 92.262
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14455 | 326 (0.02256) | 14123 | 6 | 4676.19 | 4831.59 | 15.00 | -155.40 | 103.323
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22156 | 688 (0.03106) | 21464 | 4 | 5464.69 | 4615.84 | 9.24 | 848.85 | 84.467
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14728 | 681 (0.04626) | 14040 | 7 | 6766.76 | 8051.77 | 24.99 | -1285.00 | 118.990
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15253 | 944 (0.06191) | 14305 | 4 | 4628.35 | 4109.66 | 31.20 | 518.69 | 88.793
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20169 | 1893 (0.09394) | 18259 | 17 | 9657.80 | 9754.10 | 7.01 | -96.30 | 100.997
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 79737 | 9793 (0.12285) | 69923 | 21 | 9933.02 | 8534.79 | 0.00 | 1398.23 | 85.923
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19992 | 3761 (0.18825) | 16218 | 13 | 7902.18 | 8050.20 | 14.50 | -148.01 | 101.873
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 69200 | 16831 (0.24330) | 52348 | 21 | 39851.59 | 39369.99 | 347.79 | 481.59 | 98.792
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 54839 | 20195 (0.36854) | 34603 | 41 | 27656.87 | 26990.11 | 212.63 | 666.76 | 97.589
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 471956 | 229979 (0.48760) | 241677 | 300 | 288120.87 | 286587.34 | 2173.29 | 1533.53 | 99.468
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 172179 | 85812 (0.49886) | 86205 | 162 | 121479.64 | 119990.51 | 1045.21 | 1489.13 | 98.774
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 143212 | 105367 (0.73612) | 37771 | 74 | 136665.99 | 134573.13 | 467.98 | 2092.85 | 98.469
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10119 | 8063 (0.79713) | 2052 | 4 | 19557.20 | 19496.14 | 400.00 | 61.05 | 99.688
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 8939 | 7668 (0.85868) | 1262 | 9 | 9161.10 | 8999.91 | 400.00 | 161.18 | 98.241
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4678 | 4276 (0.91524) | 396 | 6 | 7919.19 | 7828.78 | 0.00 | 90.41 | 98.858
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7313 | 7033 (0.97966) | 146 | 134 | 16048.56 | 15770.56 | 239.21 | 278.00 | 98.268
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1188841 | 483811 | 703761 | 1269 | 296737.42 | 288586.24 | 142.68 | 8151.18 | 97.253
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 39690 | 20078 | 19405 | 207 | 433722.47 | 431425.41 | 5418.35 | 2297.05 | 99.470
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1228531 | 503889 | 723166 | 1476 | 730459.89 | 720011.66 | 5561.04 | 10448.23 | 98.570
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 10448.23867558 BTC (1.430%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 618.88082500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 9829.35785058 BTC (1.346%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 3994129 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2270341 (56.8%)
Blockchain MB: 1654.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 928.2 (56.1%)

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Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 08, 2012, 12:13:13 PM

#245

ouch.... bad day for s.dice.

The-Real-Link

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 08, 2012, 11:55:33 PM

#246

Quote from: Bugpowder on September 08, 2012, 12:13:13 PM

ouch.... bad day for s.dice.

Yeah crazy bets there too. Ouch! How someone doesn't seem to mind losing 200 coins in a bet is beyond me. Then again if they can afford that it's probably not too much an issue.

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name! Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD. Give us this day our daily ~~10%~~ 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins. And lead us into quadruple digits

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 09, 2012, 04:01:38 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2012, 04:22:59 AM by dooglus

#247

Quote from: The-Real-Link on September 08, 2012, 11:55:33 PM

Quote from: Bugpowder on September 08, 2012, 12:13:13 PM

ouch.... bad day for s.dice.

Yeah crazy bets there too. Ouch! How someone doesn't seem to mind losing 200 coins in a bet is beyond me. Then again if they can afford that it's probably not too much an issue.

I've not had a chance to look at the blockchain to see what caused the recent losses - I've been very busy recently. It's hard to find time to get online. I'll post updated stats as soon as the script finishes running however.

Edit: Ouch! Another bad day for SD...

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dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 09, 2012, 04:22:04 AM

#248

Quote

Results: 2012-Sep-08 09:19pm (up to block 197935)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18223 | 0 (0.00000) | 17872 | 351 | 128.91 | 0.01 | 25.18 | 128.89 | 0.015
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1682 | 0 (0.00000) | 1610 | 72 | 23.95 | 0.00 | 6.68 | 23.95 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2269 | 0 (0.00000) | 2234 | 35 | 27.42 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.39 | 0.095
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2369 | 1 (0.00043) | 2325 | 43 | 50.73 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.66 | 15.895
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2465 | 1 (0.00041) | 2428 | 36 | 89.46 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 85.22 | 4.747
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5309 | 3 (0.00057) | 5295 | 11 | 378.20 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 74.87 | 80.202
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7621 | 8 (0.00105) | 7591 | 22 | 643.07 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 518.68 | 19.342
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9533 | 19 (0.00200) | 9459 | 55 | 1590.36 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 315.71 | 80.148
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9640 | 43 (0.00447) | 9583 | 14 | 1281.68 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -20.65 | 101.611
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14238 | 106 (0.00745) | 14123 | 9 | 2619.28 | 1911.94 | 9.35 | 707.33 | 72.995
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 27152 | 401 (0.01477) | 26743 | 8 | 8168.59 | 7531.32 | 1.80 | 637.27 | 92.198
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14558 | 328 (0.02254) | 14224 | 6 | 4678.54 | 4832.45 | 15.00 | -153.90 | 103.290
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22172 | 688 (0.03104) | 21480 | 4 | 5464.99 | 4615.84 | 9.24 | 849.15 | 84.462
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14738 | 681 (0.04623) | 14050 | 7 | 6766.92 | 8051.77 | 24.99 | -1284.85 | 118.987
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15282 | 947 (0.06198) | 14331 | 4 | 4628.79 | 4110.14 | 31.20 | 518.65 | 88.795
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20240 | 1897 (0.09380) | 18326 | 17 | 9819.48 | 9760.78 | 7.01 | 58.69 | 99.402
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 79930 | 9818 (0.12286) | 70091 | 21 | 9949.66 | 8551.41 | 0.00 | 1398.24 | 85.947
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20086 | 3780 (0.18831) | 16293 | 13 | 7996.14 | 8245.34 | 14.50 | -249.19 | 103.116
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 70406 | 17128 (0.24335) | 53257 | 21 | 41553.62 | 41242.38 | 347.79 | 311.23 | 99.251
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 54989 | 20244 (0.36842) | 34704 | 41 | 27685.92 | 27019.18 | 212.63 | 666.74 | 97.592
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 474079 | 230985 (0.48754) | 242793 | 301 | 289083.95 | 287552.18 | 2173.29 | 1531.77 | 99.470
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 174300 | 86855 (0.49877) | 87283 | 162 | 154228.34 | 154053.80 | 1045.21 | 174.54 | 99.887
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 143834 | 105817 (0.73607) | 37943 | 74 | 137053.13 | 134951.63 | 467.98 | 2101.50 | 98.467
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10287 | 8202 (0.79763) | 2081 | 4 | 19611.54 | 19551.89 | 400.00 | 59.65 | 99.696
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 9120 | 7820 (0.85830) | 1291 | 9 | 9188.33 | 9023.83 | 400.00 | 164.50 | 98.210
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4700 | 4294 (0.91478) | 400 | 6 | 7928.57 | 7837.05 | 0.00 | 91.52 | 98.846
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7320 | 7040 (0.97968) | 146 | 134 | 16066.91 | 15788.98 | 239.21 | 277.93 | 98.270
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1195025 | 486160 | 707592 | 1273 | 298824.00 | 290675.51 | 142.88 | 8148.48 | 97.273
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 41517 | 20946 | 20364 | 207 | 467882.62 | 466973.50 | 5418.35 | 909.11 | 99.806
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1236542 | 507106 | 727956 | 1480 | 766706.63 | 757649.02 | 5561.24 | 9057.60 | 98.819
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 9057.60491700 BTC (1.181%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 622.96940000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 8434.63551700 BTC (1.100%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4023785 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2285529 (56.8%)
Blockchain MB: 1666.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 934.4 (56.1%)

Just-Dice

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Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 09, 2012, 11:56:20 AM

#249

I guess I will not be adding to my holdings till the next dividend period.

Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 02:07:09 AM

#250

Waiting with baited breath here.... Looking good for S.DICE.

Details   Processed   Bet   Bet Tx   Pay Tx   Address   Pay Status   Bet Amount   Result   Payment Amount   Lucky
Details   2012-09-09 09:19:15   lessthan 32768   f929ed09   3b593c96   1GfNLFR   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   38865
Details   2012-09-09 09:18:17   lessthan 32768   ddee6c44   8e708c3a   1CuSocm   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   39847
Details   2012-09-09 08:25:38   lessthan 32768   cb0bade6   9cebdce6   1GfNLFR   CONFIRMED   250.00000000   LOSE   1.24950000   52930
2012-09-09 18:58:39   lessthan 32768   16fd63a7   bd95365f   1GLo8r8   CONFIRMED   228.00000000   LOSE   1.13950000   62461
Details   2012-09-09 18:58:16   lessthan 32768   f3cb00db   ccaf24f9   1HUNJro   CONFIRMED   228.00000000   LOSE   1.13950000   44029
Details   2012-09-09 18:57:47   lessthan 32768   998d719b   cdff948c   1KyT7MF   CONFIRMED   228.00000000   LOSE   1.13950000   35421

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 05:18:23 AM

#251

It's been very up-and-down in the last 24 hours:

Quote

Results: 2012-Sep-09 09:20pm (up to block 198088)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18417 | 0 (0.00000) | 18066 | 351 | 130.43 | 0.01 | 25.18 | 130.41 | 0.015
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1686 | 0 (0.00000) | 1614 | 72 | 23.96 | 0.00 | 6.68 | 23.95 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2275 | 0 (0.00000) | 2240 | 35 | 27.45 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.42 | 0.095
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2372 | 1 (0.00043) | 2328 | 43 | 50.73 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.67 | 15.894
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2469 | 1 (0.00041) | 2432 | 36 | 89.48 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 85.23 | 4.746
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5316 | 3 (0.00057) | 5302 | 11 | 378.33 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 75.01 | 80.173
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7654 | 8 (0.00105) | 7624 | 22 | 643.21 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 518.82 | 19.338
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9545 | 19 (0.00200) | 9471 | 55 | 1590.82 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 316.18 | 80.125
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9655 | 43 (0.00446) | 9598 | 14 | 1281.79 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -20.53 | 101.602
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14345 | 109 (0.00760) | 14227 | 9 | 2620.96 | 1945.67 | 9.35 | 675.29 | 74.235
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 27287 | 402 (0.01474) | 26876 | 9 | 8173.26 | 7531.97 | 1.80 | 641.29 | 92.154
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14589 | 330 (0.02263) | 14253 | 6 | 4679.01 | 4833.34 | 15.00 | -154.33 | 103.298
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22235 | 691 (0.03108) | 21540 | 4 | 5466.46 | 4620.00 | 9.24 | 846.46 | 84.515
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14775 | 682 (0.04618) | 14086 | 7 | 6767.45 | 8051.88 | 24.99 | -1284.42 | 118.979
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15303 | 948 (0.06196) | 14351 | 4 | 4629.23 | 4110.46 | 31.20 | 518.77 | 88.793
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20276 | 1905 (0.09403) | 18354 | 17 | 9820.41 | 9762.93 | 7.01 | 57.47 | 99.415
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 80112 | 9843 (0.12290) | 70248 | 21 | 9958.66 | 8559.35 | 0.00 | 1399.31 | 85.949
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20138 | 3789 (0.18827) | 16336 | 13 | 8009.77 | 8252.43 | 14.50 | -242.66 | 103.030
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 71214 | 17332 (0.24345) | 53861 | 21 | 42508.64 | 42211.47 | 347.79 | 297.16 | 99.301
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 55280 | 20347 (0.36834) | 34892 | 41 | 27946.72 | 27262.81 | 212.63 | 683.90 | 97.553
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 476096 | 231971 (0.48754) | 243824 | 301 | 290031.40 | 288490.50 | 2173.29 | 1540.89 | 99.469
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 176714 | 88067 (0.49882) | 88484 | 163 | 175750.58 | 174422.23 | 1295.21 | 1328.35 | 99.244
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 144185 | 106076 (0.73607) | 38035 | 74 | 138113.76 | 135868.77 | 467.98 | 2244.99 | 98.375
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10572 | 8416 (0.79644) | 2151 | 5 | 19677.83 | 19615.72 | 400.00 | 62.11 | 99.684
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 9178 | 7867 (0.85800) | 1302 | 9 | 9201.53 | 9035.20 | 400.00 | 166.32 | 98.192
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4720 | 4309 (0.91409) | 405 | 6 | 7942.72 | 7844.43 | 0.00 | 98.29 | 98.762
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7348 | 7068 (0.97976) | 146 | 134 | 16077.49 | 15799.59 | 239.21 | 277.89 | 98.272
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1200960 | 488668 | 711017 | 1275 | 301137.61 | 292936.86 | 142.88 | 8200.74 | 97.277
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 42796 | 21559 | 21029 | 208 | 490454.60 | 488299.02 | 5668.35 | 2155.58 | 99.560
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1243756 | 510227 | 732046 | 1483 | 791592.22 | 781235.88 | 5811.24 | 10356.33 | 98.692
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 10356.33345390 BTC (1.308%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 626.62220000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 9729.71125390 BTC (1.229%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4055568 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2299618 (56.7%)
Blockchain MB: 1679.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 940.0 (56.0%)

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nibor

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 10:48:33 AM

#252

Maybe you should add a >100 BTC bets line! Or just change the 4->100.

organofcorti

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 10:51:52 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2012, 02:12:21 PM by organofcorti

#253

Quote from: nibor on September 10, 2012, 10:48:33 AM

Maybe you should add a >100 BTC bets line! Or just change the 4->100.

If you worked out the 25%, 50% and 75% quantiles for the amounts bet, you'd have 3 lines representing equal number of four equal groups of amounts bet. Might provide some insight, might not be worth it if it's a hassle.

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Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 02:08:26 PM

#254

I would love to see a daily monthly cumulative summary, rather than have to mentally subtract. Really great stats. Thank you.

Carnth

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 03:26:42 PM

#255

There have been many ups and downs (or downs and ups).

It just goes to show you: when they bets are made over and over again, even when the bets are BTC200+ the laws of averages still can't be beat.

jamesg

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 04:05:12 PM

#256

Quote from: Carnth on September 10, 2012, 03:26:42 PM

There have been many ups and downs (or downs and ups).

It just goes to show you: when they bets are made over and over again, even when the bets are BTC200+ the laws of averages still can't be beat.

Always quit when you are ahead. Wink

dooglus

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 04:35:28 PM

#257

Quote from: organofcorti on September 10, 2012, 10:51:52 AM

Sounds interesting, but confused.

If I understand you, I'd have lines for (0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and total) - that's 5 lines. Is that what you mean?

Just-Dice

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Bugpowder

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 10, 2012, 04:47:52 PM

#258

Quote from: dooglus on September 10, 2012, 04:35:28 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on September 10, 2012, 10:51:52 AM

Sounds interesting, but confused.

If I understand you, I'd have lines for (0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and total) - that's 5 lines. Is that what you mean?

I don't really see how this would be interesting. We know variance is = on a per bet basis. Why clutter up the plot? Monthly returns would be convenient though.

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 11, 2012, 01:22:23 AM

#259

It looks like somebody can't bring themselves to quit while they're ahead!

Quote

Results: 2012-Sep-10 06:12pm (up to block 198227)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18567 | 0 (0.00000) | 18214 | 353 | 133.95 | 0.01 | 25.18 | 133.93 | 0.014
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1688 | 0 (0.00000) | 1616 | 72 | 23.97 | 0.00 | 6.68 | 23.97 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2277 | 0 (0.00000) | 2242 | 35 | 27.45 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.42 | 0.095
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2374 | 1 (0.00043) | 2330 | 43 | 50.78 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.72 | 15.878
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2472 | 1 (0.00041) | 2435 | 36 | 89.49 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 85.24 | 4.745
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5350 | 3 (0.00056) | 5336 | 11 | 378.79 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 75.46 | 80.076
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7690 | 8 (0.00104) | 7660 | 22 | 643.46 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 519.07 | 19.331
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9600 | 19 (0.00199) | 9526 | 55 | 1591.46 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 316.82 | 80.092
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9726 | 43 (0.00443) | 9669 | 14 | 1282.32 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -20.00 | 101.560
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14453 | 110 (0.00762) | 14334 | 9 | 2623.39 | 1948.17 | 9.35 | 675.22 | 74.262
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 27584 | 404 (0.01465) | 27171 | 9 | 8192.18 | 7534.54 | 1.80 | 657.64 | 91.972
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14599 | 330 (0.02261) | 14263 | 6 | 4679.34 | 4833.34 | 15.00 | -154.00 | 103.291
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22252 | 692 (0.03110) | 21556 | 4 | 5466.77 | 4620.38 | 9.24 | 846.39 | 84.518
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14806 | 682 (0.04608) | 14117 | 7 | 6768.00 | 8051.88 | 24.99 | -1283.87 | 118.970
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15314 | 948 (0.06192) | 14362 | 4 | 4629.41 | 4110.46 | 31.20 | 518.94 | 88.790
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20317 | 1906 (0.09389) | 18394 | 17 | 9822.09 | 9763.04 | 7.01 | 59.05 | 99.399
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 80230 | 9863 (0.12297) | 70346 | 21 | 9969.88 | 8584.33 | 0.00 | 1385.55 | 86.103
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20199 | 3803 (0.18840) | 16383 | 13 | 8024.91 | 8276.31 | 14.50 | -251.40 | 103.133
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 72202 | 17575 (0.24349) | 54606 | 21 | 43564.95 | 43096.59 | 347.79 | 468.36 | 98.925
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 55754 | 20501 (0.36798) | 35212 | 41 | 28160.52 | 27444.50 | 212.63 | 716.01 | 97.457
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 478917 | 233324 (0.48750) | 245291 | 302 | 291048.72 | 289565.89 | 2173.29 | 1482.82 | 99.491
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 178617 | 89010 (0.49878) | 89444 | 163 | 176785.77 | 175496.78 | 1295.21 | 1288.98 | 99.271
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 144517 | 106314 (0.73603) | 38129 | 74 | 138537.74 | 136382.13 | 467.98 | 2155.60 | 98.444
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10630 | 8456 (0.79586) | 2169 | 5 | 19755.70 | 19696.53 | 400.00 | 59.16 | 99.701
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 9232 | 7911 (0.85784) | 1311 | 10 | 9260.13 | 9096.15 | 400.00 | 163.97 | 98.229
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4742 | 4330 (0.91427) | 406 | 6 | 8099.94 | 8012.79 | 0.00 | 87.14 | 98.924
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7358 | 7078 (0.97979) | 146 | 134 | 16156.47 | 15878.92 | 239.21 | 277.55 | 98.282
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1208494 | 491676 | 715539 | 1279 | 303617.42 | 295447.68 | 142.88 | 8169.74 | 97.309
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 42973 | 21636 | 21129 | 208 | 492150.28 | 489962.19 | 5668.35 | 2188.08 | 99.555
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1251467 | 513312 | 736668 | 1487 | 795767.71 | 785409.87 | 5811.24 | 10357.83 | 98.698
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 10357.83392304 BTC (1.302%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 630.49207500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 9727.34184804 BTC (1.222%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4084424 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2314815 (56.7%)
Blockchain MB: 1690.8 : SatoshiDice Tx: 945.7 (55.9%)

Just-Dice

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organofcorti

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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

September 11, 2012, 01:30:32 AM

#260

Quote from: dooglus on September 10, 2012, 04:35:28 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on September 10, 2012, 10:51:52 AM

Sounds interesting, but confused.

If I understand you, I'd have lines for (0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and total) - that's 5 lines. Is that what you mean?

Yes. I wasn't including "total" as a quantile line. If having too many lines make the chart confused, you could keep the two constituent lines you use currently, just define them as quantiles rather than bet amounts which could become less informative if bets become much larger or smaller.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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