~snip~
No hope for the rest? You are underestimating teams like NZ and overestimating teams like Pakistan. Pakistan might not even reach the quarters thanks to the state they are in currently.
Recent form is a major indicator of a teams performance and Aus, India, England have been performing really well in that area.
LOL yes, no hope for the rest but I have my wishes with them :-P
Some of them might get place in the next round but taking the world cup race I would say the race is in between
Australia
India
England
I would like to say South Africa too but not sure much.
I'd agree with your post. IMO, there are four teams that are capable of winning the trophy this time: India, England, Australia and South Africa (in that order of highest probability to the lowest). Teams such as New Zealand and Pakistan can progress up to the semi-finals, but beyond that is not very likely. The other teams (AFG, BAN, WI, and SL) don't have the capability to advance to the semi-final stage.