UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!LOST - Take
Davi Ramos over Arman Tsarukyan (5:35p.m., Saturday, July 18th)
In the lightweight division, we have a matchup between Davi Ramos (10-3) and Arman Tsarukyan (14-2). This fight was an interesting one to tape study as they both had losses to common opponent Islam Mackachev in their last fight. Ramos surprised us most with his unwillingness to try and get that fight to the mat and utilize his 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He was content to simply stand and bang with Mackachev, which was strange to say the least. Tsarukyan on the other hand, really took the fight to Mackachev, and although he lost that fight - he came out with improved experience and picked up the moral victory (if there is such a thing). However, as a UFC handicapper, it is important to have a strong lookahead approach with accurate educated estimations as to what we can expect to see moving forward. If all we had to do is look back on previous fights, this would be all too easy. Davi Ramos is still an absolute killer on the ground, which can be seen by 7 of his 10 wins coming by submission. It should also be noted that he has never been finished and shows some clear durability. It is in our professional opinion that Ramos will do all he can to get this fight to the ground and would have picked up some valuable lessons in the loss to Mackachev. He has been a little reserved in his efforts and we think that, coupled with recency bias is playing far too much into the current market price. For that reason, we will back the tasty underdog price with Ramos.
LOST - Take
Malcolm Gordon over Amir Albazi (6:00p.m., Saturday, July 18th)
Next up in the flyweight division we have a matchup between Malcolm Gordon (12-3) and Amir Albazi (12-1). There are a lot of unknowns with both fighters as they will be making their UFC debuts. What we do know is that Malcom Gordon has a solid ground game, which can be seen by 6 of his wins coming by submission. He also has 4 wins by knockout, leaving only a couple of his fights to the judges. He chases the finish, and that is always a good thing. However, we must mention his chin seems questionable. When watching the limited tape, we have on him, it seems as though he is easily wobbled. While nothing drastic has happened, some softer shots seemed to have his legs buckle up - so that is concerning. His opponent Amir Albazi also looks to finish his opponents with 7 wins coming by submission, 4 knockouts, and only 1 win via decision. Either fighter could get clipped, although we feel Albazi has the slight advantage on the feet, and depending who gets top control - either fighter could be out-grappled and dominated on the mat, although we feel Gordon holds that particular advantage. This is honestly a complete coin-flip based on our estimation, and who does not want to be holding a +130 ticket on a coin clip? Count us in!
LOST - Take
Khadis Ibragimov over Roman Dolidze (8:00p.m., Saturday, July 18th)
In the featured prelim of the night, we have a light-heavyweight bout between Khadis Ibragimov (8-2) and the UFC debut of Roman Dolidze (6-0). This is such a hard fight to call as both fighters are extremely similar in skill level across the board. Neither fighter has shown any talent in the striking department. They both come forward, swing hard and hope something connects. There is no high-level technique being employed and both leave themselves open when throwing. The reason for Roman being favorite is simply due to his undefeated record, and seemingly decent ground game where he utilizes transitions well. It should also be noted that Khadis is 0-2 in the UFC. However, it's these exact scenarios that present decent value for professional bettors. Dolidze has fought almost no-one, and with no UFC experience, it is entirely possible he isn't ready and could be totally outmatched. This price is overinflated, and we think the wrong man may be favored. Khadis is also fighting for his UFC career here and we can expect max effort. There is not much else to say - Give us the dog.
WIN - Take
Askar Askarov over Alexandre Pantoja (8:30p.m., Saturday, July 18th)
Next up in the flyweight division we have an intriguing matchup between undefeated Askar Askarov (11-0) and Alexandre Pantoja (22-4). This is one of those fights where there is a clear path to victory for both fighters. Askarov is an exceptionally good top-heavy wrestler that holds position well and makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to engage their hips to create sweeps or submission threats. Pantoja on the other hand is an overly aggressive, forward marching striker that is well rounded everywhere. He understands how to manage and maintain distance, while stepping in and out of the pocket to land damaging blows. He also pushes a high pace and can finish a fight wherever it takes place, which can be seen by his 8 wins coming by knockout, and 8 wins coming by way of submission. Pantoja is one of those sneaky good fighters that fly under the radar. He is not outspoken at all, and gets in and out, and is easily forgotten. This usually means he offers a ton of value. However, styles make fights, and this is not going to be an easy task for Pantoja. We have no doubt that he is the more talented mixed martial artist, and we understand the current market pricing, but as he walks down Askarov he will have to be careful. Not enough is being made of Askarovs striking, and the dude packs some serious power, and is able to land with high accuracy when moving backwards. We have seen Pantoja be cracked multiple times by good backward moving power punches, due to his style which leaves his chin open and vulnerable. Pantoja may be winning the early minutes, but the wrestling will keep him honest, and we would not be shocked if Askarov was able to really hurt Pantoja before finding his way with the wrestling. This should be priced closer, and we will take the clear value in the underdog.
LOST - Take
Joseph Benavidez over Deiveson Figueiredo (10:30p.m., Saturday, July 18th)
The main event of the evening will feature a rematch for the vacant flyweight title between Joseph Benavidez (28-6) and Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1). This price just seems absolutely nuts to us. In the first fight, Figueredo came intentionally overweight and had clear strength and cardio advantage as he did not deplete his body. Benavidez was still able to control the striking exchanges and win most of the minutes, before a concussive headbutt then opened a nasty cut, which was then followed by a nuke from Figueiredo, shutting out Joey's lights. We have no doubts that Deiveson could land something similar in the rematch, but the pricing is what is important here as nothing has really changed. We all knew the knockout from Figueiredo was a possible and potentially likely outcome in the first fight, yet we saw Benavidez close as a -155 favorite. That implies a 60.8% win probability. Now we are getting him +195 in the immediate rematch?? +195 implies a 33.9% win probability. We cannot accept that the one knockout blow we all knew Fig could land is now the reason for a 26.9% win probability shift. Look, we understand some things change mentally in a fighter when they are knocked out like Joey B was, but he is, in all honesty, the better minute by minute fighter, and will have success once again. This comes down to if he can avoid the knockout shot, and while that is yet to be seen, we cannot ignore the clear value here. We also hope Benavidez utilizes a little more of his wrestling - although we don't expect him to be able to ground Deiveson much or have success holding him there, it will at least zap some of that power and energy and negate some of that one-punch knockout threat. We expect Benavidez to out-land, out-point, and out-maneuver Figueiredo while keeping that defense a little tighter. Value is value, and we will happily take a stab.
