UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill *The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you! 
WIN - Take
BILLY QUARANTILLO over Kyle Nelson (8:15p.m., Saturday, September 12th)
Kicking off the main card we have a matchup in the featherweight division between Billy Quarrantillo (14-2) and Kyle Nelson (13-3). Kyle Nelson came to the UFC with some high expectations but has underachieved with a 1-2 record. He dropped his first two fights, and in a must win, managed to knock out Polo Reyes in his last outing. We are not trying to take anything away from Kyle, but the truth is, Polo Reyes has an extremely suspect chin. Kyle comes forward with an almost awkward plodding approach and looks to land heavy power shots rather than relying on much high-level MMA ability. Billy Quarantillo on the other hand, is a little more well-rounded no matter where this fight takes place. He is the better athlete - quicker, faster, and more explosive. He has a solid grappling/wrestling base and packs more power with his punches. We expect Quarantillo to take charge early in this contest, and put a beating on Kyle, if not put him away. The current line of -250 implies that Billy has a 71.4% win probability, but in all honesty we feel that is low, and would price this closer to 80% (-400). Nelson will start plodding forward, chin first, looking to make up the points he is losing in the exchanges, and Billy will be waiting to end the show. As long-term subscribers know by now, we do not usually take big favorites and find most of our value in ugly underdogs, but this is an opportunity we cannot pass up.
LOST - Take
ANDREA LEE over Roxanne Modafferi (9:45p.m., Saturday, September 12th)
As we move towards the main event, we have a flyweight matchup between Andrea Lee (11-4) and Roxanne Modafferi (24-17). Roxanne Modafferi has been getting too much respect from oddsmakers for far too long in our opinion. We understand she has won some fights, and some as a big underdog, but this is the exact reason she is still being priced the way she is, and profitable investors are able to feast on the mispricing. Simply put - Roxanne has too many holes in her game. She is not a good fighter when it comes to technique and athletic ability. She has been able to win some fights on sheer toughness as she is able to take damage and outlast her opponents. However, when she comes across a fighter with the raw skills and talent as Andrea Lee possesses, the odds are stacked severely against her. Lee is an incredibly talented fighter with a lot of upside. She is a good striker with strong, and underrated grappling ability. She brings intensity and aims to put a hurting on her opponents. However, it should be noted that after a 3-0 start in the UFC, she is currently on a two-fight losing streak, where she gave up split decisions to both Lauren Murphy, and Joanne Calderwood. Those losses are also a big part of the pricing decision for this bout. Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood have similar styles to Roxanne which would make the average bettor think that Roxanne has a shot. The difference is Murphy and Calderwood are vastly better fighters than Roxanne and do not just run in chin first. Lee has also learned a whole lot from those losses, and she cannot afford to drop another one here. This is a set up fight from the UFC. Roxanne is 37 years of age and offers no further upside for the promotion. There is not too much else to say apart from the fact that Andre Lee should absolutely dominate Modafferi in every way. She is fresher, faster, more skilled, and will show up much more evolved - something we know will not be happening with Roxanne. -300 seems steep, but in all honesty, we see no world in which Roxanne can pull this one off. Lee puts on an absolute clinic and mauls "the happy warrior".
LOST - Take
ANGELA HILL over Michelle Waterson (10:45p.m., Saturday, September 12th)
In the main event of the evening, we have a women's strawweight contest between Angela Hill (12-8) and Michelle Waterson (17-8). This was originally scheduled to be a 3-round fight but has since been moved up to the main event, and what a treat that is. Both these women are 5-round martial artists who improve as the fight wears on. We expect this to be a fun one, which will go back-and-forth. Angela Hill is a true fighter in every sense of the word. She debuted in 2017 and has been extremely active since competing in 11 more bouts. It is clear she is improving and has high expectations of herself. Hill is really starting to tie everything together and was on a 3-fight winning streak before losing a controversial split-decision to Claudia Gadelha. She works from the outside well, peppers you with shots at a high rate, and while she does not pack much power, she is able to hurt her opponents with relentless volume. It is clear to see that she is maturing and finding her true style. She will have a tough matchup when she faces Michelle Waterson. Michelle is a black belt in Karate, but she has turned into a particularly good ground fighter in the UFC. This can be seen by her 9 wins by submission. If she can consistently land takedowns, she could have a clear win condition, but we doubt her ability to do this over 5-rounds vs a strong, and athletic Hill, who utilizes good footwork. We do appreciate the tough 'never die' grind that Michelle possesses, but to us this just means she will take more, and more damage as this fight wears on. Hill is motivated and feels as though she should be higher up the rankings after all the work she has put in, and the controversial loss helped fuel her fire. This will be a very fun, competitive fight, which should be back and forth, but as this moves into the later stages, we think the technique, length and volume of Hill will be too much for Waterson and we expect her to start landing at will. If this were a 3-round fight, we would have some reservations but in this new format, Hill should be able to win a close, hard fought decision here and move on up the rankings.
