I have Villanova winning this game by 15+ points against Virginia Tech as I believe they are hands-down the superior team in this matchup especially at this point in the season. Virginia Tech was out-rebounded by Radford in their only game this season and they allowed Radford to shoot 35% against them from beyond the arc and 40% against them overall. You can expect Villanova to put up a big number against this Virginia Tech team Saturday night after shooting 48% against Arizona State and putting up 83 points against them despite shooting just 33% as a team from beyond the arc. Villanova out-rebounded Arizona State by 17 in that 9-point victory and you can expect them to dominate the boards against this Virginia Tech team. Villanova also has the advantage of playing two quality teams to start the season while Virginia Tech has only played Radford. Villanova held Boston College to shooting just 31% against them from beyond the arc and Arizona State to shooting just 36% against them from beyond the arc. Villanova has shot 49.2% as a team so far this season and you can expect their perimeter shooting percentage to go up in this game against Virginia Tech. Villanova has taken very good care of the basketball with just 8 turnovers against Boston College and 11 turnovers against Arizona State. So play Villanova ATS.

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In the main event we have a light heavyweight matchup between Anthony Smith and Devin Clark. This was originally scheduled to be the co-main event but has since been bumped up as Curtis Blaydes tested positive for Covid19. First, let us say - Anthony Smith is as tough as they come, and has been in some absolute wars! He is only 32 years of age, but fight years are a vastly different metric as this will be Smith's 50th professional fight. That is a lot of fights! Lately Smith has struggled and there is no denying it. He fought for the UFC title against Jon Jones but has since lost 3 out of his last 4, including picking his teeth off the canvas when he received an absolute beat down from Glover Teixeira. From a technical standpoint, Smith possesses a good jab and works well from range as he sets up his kill shots. He also possesses some impressive power and will hit you with everything he has including elbows and knees. The major area of concern as of late for Smith is his conditioning. This is something that will need to be addressed and managed well as Clark is the type of opponent that will look to exploit that from the beginning. Devin Clark has been looking better and better in the UFC and showed some real grit and determination in his fight against Alonzo Menefield. Clark has a very solid wrestling game and when he commits to it, he can be a problem. He will have to be careful here though as Smith has a very sneaky ground game and with his long limbs, he can absolutely lock something up from bottom here. There does seem at first glance to be an easy path to victory for Clark - just wrestle from the first bell and zap that energy of Smith until his power and speed are nulled. Not so fast. This is an enormous jump in competition level for Clark and smith has literally been fighting the best in the world for the past 5 years. The narrative of Smith's decline, and his recent performances is allowing us to jump on an incredibly low stock price. If these guys fought a few years ago, we would have seen Smith up in the -300 range and we honestly don't feel much has changed apart from public perception and that's the exact opportunity we look to take advantage of. We expect Smith to keep this fight standing long enough at times where he can pick apart Clark and land some big shots, forcing desperation shots which could end in a submission victory for Smith, or some ground-and-pound. While Clark can wrestle - do not get it twisted - he is not a cardio machine either. This could get ugly, and we will take the "Lion Heart" here which presents huge value.

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I am looking for a very high scoring game and I think that these two teams will combine for over 160 points. North Carolina always plays at a fast pace. This is a team that likes to run and gun. They have some very talented guards that want to get out in the open floor. I think that they will be able to do that against a UNLV team that allowed 91 points in its opening game to Montana State! The Rebels don't have the size on the inside to keep UNC out of the paint and I think that North Carolina is going to be able to get good shots all night. The 'over' is 7-3 when the Tar Heels face a team that is below .500 and the 'over' is 11-5 when UNLV plays after a double-digit home loss. The 'over' is 19-7 in UNLV's last 26 games after a loss. Take the 'over' in this one.

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Toledo might only be 1-2, but the losses were at Bradley by two and at Xavier by three. Stepping down in class to face Cleveland State should be a big benefit for their home opener. The Rockets returned three starters and have four legitimate scorers they can depend on. The Vikings are coming off an 11-21 season and it's been five seasons since they smelled the rarified air of .500. Though Cleveland State also has three starters in the fold, finding dependable production is their No. 1 problem. This is also the Vikings' first contest, which figures to work against them. Make it Toledo by 14.

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UNLV sucks. North Carolina spotted them five scoreless minutes and a 13-0 lead and they still lost by 27 points. Not great! Add on top of that a 13-point home loss to Montana State and things are really bad for the Rebels. They aren't going to get any better for them here. I think that this is a pretty good Alabama team. They play fast and they shoot a ton of 3's and when they get going they can turn people's lights out. The Crimson Tide got rolled by Stanford last night. But now they are stepping way down in competition and I think that they will take some of that frustration out on a clearly struggling UNLV team. Nate Oates is a really solid coach and this is an experienced Alabama team that has four seniors and a junior among their top seven guys. Alabama is going to shoot better than 36% from the field and 24% from 3-point range. They were in the Top 5 in the country in scoring last year and hit a solid 35% from deep. I think they are able to bury the needle here.

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As per our selection on Manchester United in this contest, we believe they are in great form and as they come off a come from behind 3-2 win against Southampton, they should have plenty of confidence and motivation to do well here against a slightly overrated PSG squad. United has already beaten PSG this CL campaign and we expect a similar result at home. United know they can ill afford to lose this contest as that would put first place in the group in jeopardy. Instead, we expect United to come out strong, weather the early pressure from PSG, and then hit them on the counter as they've done in the past. United has just one home loss across five games while PSG has lost two consecutive games away from the Parc De Princes. United wins this game 2-1.

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We roll with Providence here as we like Ed Cooley's kids here. Remember, Cooley's team just beat Davidson as they were up 28-7 in that game but they didn't close that game well but still ended up winning that game. That Davidson team is 1-2 but our metrics point to Davidson being a fantastic team who just lost to Texas by a bucket and Providence by about a bucket. That win that Providence has over Davidson is impressive and Providence laid an egg against Indiana earlier this year just 2 games ago. Now, they get to face another Power 5 team and they will up for it. Alabama is a team I love as a fan - but they struggled against UNLV taking 40 three pointers and making just 15 - that's not great. Providence is extremely well coached and have and are led by 6 upperclassmen. I think this is a dangerous game for Alabama and we think that Providence has a great shot at winning Outright.

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We like the over here as Leicester has already secured a place in the knockout rounds as they sit on 10 points leading second place Sporting Braga by three. Because of this and Leicester's 2-1 loss to Fulham at home over the weekend, expect Brendan Rogers to shake things up a bit today. Leicester are winless in their last three, all hitting 3 or more goals and five of their last six overall have also hit 3 or more goals. Away from home, Leicester are 3-1-1 in their last five, but have a loss and a draw in their last two, though their last four have all hit 3 or more goals. In the Europa League, Leicester are unbeaten in their last four with all four hitting three or more goals including their 3-3 draw at Sporting Braga last time out. For Zorya, they sit bottom of Group G on three points, level with ARK Athens, but behind on head to head. They are unbeaten in their last three, winning back to back matches, both 3-0 score lines. Three of their last four overall have hit 3 or more goals, though they are winless in their last three at home. Three of their last four at home have all hit 3 or more goals as well. Zorya are regulars to the Europa League, while Leicester are making their first appearance in 20 years. The host have not seen much success in the competition, with just two wins in their last eight matches, though they are coming off a 3-0 win at AEK Athens. Additionally, their last six have all hit 3 or more goals in the Europa League. This is a great opportunity for Zorya to catch Leicester on the back foot, while a fresh Leicester side with a mix of bench and second stringers could be out to impress. Because of these two factors we expect this to easily cover.

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Tonight the Hokies will welcome the Keydets of VMI and tonight I smell tons of offense being produced. The Keydets have won 2 out 3 games to start the season but one thing I see tonight is that the Hokies will be able to score points tonight. VMI gave up 86 points to Penn St and the Hokies last 3 games all 3 of them have gone 'Over' the total. If Va Tech can hit the open 'J' tonight and the 3 ball goes in early I see them controlling the pace and this total flies 'Over'. A little shocked that this total has been dropping all morning long as this total was 141 when I woke up early this morning. Virginia Tech is 4-1 O/U following a ATS win and the Hokies are 7-3-1 O/U in their last 11 home games.

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With all the weird and wacky stuff going on in college basketball - and all sports - right now there absolutely is no substitute for continuity and experience. And few teams are as cohesive, consistent and experienced as Wisconsin. All five starters are back from last year's team. All five are seniors. All five have had a lot of success in the Big Ten, including winning the regular season title last year. And now they are back together as one of the most static teams in the country. On the other hand we have Marquette. All they did was lose one of the best college basketball scores of the last half-century, Markus Howard. He as the nation's all-time leading scorer with 27.8 points per game and finished No. 21 in college hoops history in points. You don't just lose a guy like that and expect everything to be fine. Losing Howard would be bad enough. But that's not all they lost. Marquette lost four of its top six players and guys that were fringe role players are now being leaned on for absolutely everything. Mind you: with Howard Marquette got demolished 77-61 by Wisconsin last year. It should be just as bad this year. I know that this is a big rivalry game and that Marquette is playing at home. But there's no fans. So there really is no home court advantage and it certainly takes a lot of the bite out of the 'rivalry' aspect of this matchup. Now it's just a gym. And now it's just about the guys on the court. And Wisconsin has the much better side.

Marquette just lost by eight to a really below-average Oklahoma State team. And it wasn't even that close, with Ok. State up 12 with four minutes to play. Oklahoma State is not a tournament team and the Cowboys won despite shooting just 5-for-18 from 3-point range. If they can do that to Marquette what can the Badgers do to them?

This is also about matchups. Marquette does not matchup well with Wisconsin at all. Offensively, Marquette doesn't have anyone that can shoot. Koby McEwen is their primary guard but he's just a guy I would say is 'pretty good'. And he's not better than UW's D'Mitrick Trice. This team is going to really struggle to score points all year and they are going to try to win games by grinding teams down defensively. That's a problem because Wisconsin is used to playing that way. They play slow and methodical. And there is no defense that Marquette is going to throw at them that they haven't faced in spade in the rugged Big Ten. Freshman big Dawson Garcia and senior Theo John are going to be forced to guard Wisconsin's big men Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers. Garcia is likely to get abused and I won't be surprised to see him in foul trouble. John is a shot blocker and rim protector. But Wisconsin's bigs are both excellent 3-point shooters. Reuvers is hitting 71% from deep this year and 37% over the last three years while Potter is shooting 40% this year and 45% the last two years. They are going to be able to pull Johns (and later Jamal Cain when he has to fill in for Garcia) away from the basket.

Wisconsin just has too many answers. They are flat-out the better team. They are more talented, more experienced, better coached and more versatile on both ends of the court. The one trump card Marquette had was playing this game at home. But with no crowd that advantage is out the window. I just don't see how this game is decided by fewer than 8 points - and that's if Marquette plays well. If Marquette doesn't play well and Wisconsin does then this will be a 15-point win.

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