UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Rakic 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!LOW ODDS BET - VERY RISKY!LOST - Take
JI YEON KIM over Alexa Grasso (10:00p.m., Saturday, August 29th)
In the women's flyweight division we have a matchup between Ji Yeon Kim (9-2) and Alexa Grasso (11-3). Alexa Grasso came into the UFC as an undefeated fighter with high expectations but has now lost 3 of her last 6 and been unable to put together any kind of winning streak. It is worth mentioning that Grasso is showing clear signs of improvement with each fight, and while her record is not anything to be too impressed by, her high volume, smooth striking and cardio is looking more and more impressive. The clear issue with Grasso is her grappling, and she will be taking on Ji Yeon Kim who is a 3rd degree black belt in Hapkido, which utilizes unique grappling techniques, and a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. There is no doubt she will have issues keeping up with the striking and speed advantages that Grasso will bring, but we do think this one will end up in the clinch and on the mat multiple times, at which point Kim should be able to get Grasso in all kinds of trouble. We should also mention that Grasso is moving up in weight and it is yet to be seen how this works for her. We anticipate she will be at a strength disadvantage and could find herself in a world of hurt sooner or later. In all honesty, we could argue Kim should be the favorite here from what we have seen and +250 is far too wide on a woman who has clear paths to victory. The market is pricing these based on popularity as much as skillset, and long-term subscribers will know this is where we like to make our profits. There's a ton of value on the dog here!
LOST - Take
ROBBIE LAWLER over over Neil Magny (10:25p.m., Saturday, August 29th,)
In the co-main event of the evening, we have a matchup between Robbie Lawler (28-14) and Neil Magny (23-7). Let us start by addressing the legend that is Robbie Lawler. The guy has been absolute non-stop entertainment. He has lived up to his 'Ruthless' nickname and has won 20 fights by knockout. Robbie has not been one to care much for the judge's opinion. However, we also need to address the elephant in the room which die hard MMA fans will not want to hear. Lawler is on a decline, and a pretty steep one at that. He is on a 3-fight losing streak and has started to take a more reserved, measured approach which is not what made him successful. Neil Magny on the other hand has been an inconsistent performer, but you always know what you are getting in terms of approach. He is a very high-volume point fighter, with insanely good cardio and he knows how to win minutes. In his 14 decisions, he has only lost once. He likes to fight long and uses his jab to keep his opponents at bay. The problem for Magny is that his punches do not pack much sting. That is a necessity when fighting an opponent like Robbie Lawler. Unless he has something to be concerned about, he will headhunt and look to land a fight ending bomb. Magny has also shown signs of a questionable chin. The important thing here is how Robbie decides to approach this one. It is somewhat a must win for his career if he wants to continue getting booked for fights, and after 3 straight losses we are hoping he brings the 'ruthless' style back. If he can do that, and drag Magny into a war, then the current offering of +210 is grossly mispriced. We will speculate to accumulate in this scenario and take the value on the dog.
