UFC 254 *The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you! 
WON - Take
Shavkat Rakhmonov over Alex Oliveira (12:35p.m., Saturday, October 24th)
In the welterweight division, we have a matchup between Alex Oliveira (22-8) and Shavkat Rakhmonov (12-0). First - What can we say about Alex Oliveira? The guy is so exciting to watch, and he never seems to disappoint. He has been in some exciting wars and has 12 wins by knockout, and 5 wins by submission. However, those wars come at a price, and sooner or later they will catch up with you. Oliveira is on a much needed two-fight winning streak after losing the previous 3. He is an aggressive fighter right from the start but has shown cardio and conditioning issues in the past. He will face off against undefeated UFC newcomer, Shavkat Rakhmonov. Shavkat has 7 wins by knockout, and 5 by submission which if you do the math means he has a 100% finishing rate. Our initial take on this fight when the odds dropped was that we were going to be all over Oliveira. He's the more battle-tested fighter, with high-level UFC experience against the much tougher opponents. The line seemed way off, and disrespectful to Oliveira. It was shaping up to be one of those scenarios where we could fade the UFC newcomer hype and cash in on the more experienced mixed martial artist. However, after doing some tape study on Rakhmonov - all we can say is, damn! This guy looks like he could make some real noise in the UFC. He is solid in all aspects, possesses great cardio and conditioning, and fights very calm and within himself for a 25-year-old. He is showing wisdom and experience beyond his years and this was no mistake by the UFC setting this up on one of the biggest cards of the year, to debut against Alex Oliveira. There's no doubt that this could be too much too soon and we are not discounting that, but if he can stay patient and avoid the early attack from Oliveira we think he will have his way and make a huge statement in his debut. We will take the stab on him here and hope the fighter from Kazakhstan shows the world what he is capable of.
LOST - Take
Nathaniel Wood over Casey Kenney (1:00p.m., Saturday, October 24th)
In a catchweight bout, we have a preliminary matchup between Nathanial Wood (21-4) and Casey Kenney (15-2). This is a good fight. We want to say "well done" to the UFC matchmakers here. From a number's standpoint, both these fighters are remarkably similar. Nathaniel Wood has looked good in the UFC showing clear talent, albeit vs. lower tier opponents. He did have a step up in competition recently when he faced John Dodson, but he ended up losing by knockout. Although when watching that fight back, it was a situation where Dodson landed a clean shot but was outclassed for most of that fight. Wood is a slick martial artist with a high-volume approach. When it comes to Casey Kenney, there is no denying the competition level difference he has faced. He has been in there with fighters such as Louis Smolka, Merab Dvalishvili, Ray Borg and Dennis Bermudez. It is important to note this is a late replacement fight and a quick turnaround for Kenney. He has been flying back and forth between time-zones while attempting to cut weight at the same time and ensure his body is recovered. We think this line would be a little high even under normal circumstances, but that kind of mental and physical fatigue comes at a price and we believe is being undervalued here. In all honesty this is a fight where we price Wood closer to -165, and at +140 we will happily take a big shot on the dog!
LOST - Take
Stefan Struve over Tai Tuivasa (1:30p.m., Saturday, October 24th)
In the featured prelim of the evening we have a heavyweight matchup between Stefan Struve (29-12) and Tai Tuivasa (9-3). This is an interesting fight no doubt about it. Tai Tuivasa came into the UFC looking like the next big thing winning in impressive fashion in his first three bouts en route to a 3-0 record. However, since stepping up in competition level, he has found himself on a 3-fight slide which brings his UFC record to 3-3. The issue with Tuivasa is his willingness to rely on his power too much. Yes, he has a ton and if he lands clean - you are going to sleep. However, this is not a long-term winning strategy in MMA these days due to the evolution and diversity of these fighters. Tai Tuivasa simply does not have elite level skills in anything. He is a decent striker, with huge power but a one trick pony that is easy to deal with once you work him out. Stefan Struve on the other hand is a 7-foot-tall, awkward looking heavyweight that possesses the reach advantage in most of his fights (almost 10 inches in this one). Struve has 8 wins by KO, but what makes him unique in this division is his 18 wins by way of submission due to his long limbs and Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has a clear advantage on the ground if it gets there. Struve is good at creating distance and using his jab and front kicks to keep his opponent at range. We see many paths to victory for Struve, and only one path to victory for Tuivasa. This could play out in a variety of ways and we are not sold on the current mindset of Struve considering his constant discussions of retirement. but having said that, we cannot ignore this price on the fighter with many more tools in the bag. If he can protect his chin, keep this at range and eventually work his way into some clinch/grappling exchanges - we like his chances.
LOST - Take
Walt Harris over Alexander Volkov (3:25p.m., Saturday, October 24th)
Moving over to the PPV, we have a heavyweight matchup between Alexander Volkov (31-8) and Walt Harris (13-8). Walt Harris has been a difficult one to gauge so far in the UFC. He lost his debut via split decision, then put two wins together in impressive fashion, winning both by knockout. He then was tested against Fabricio Werdum and lost by submission and followed that up with a loss via DQ. Harris then looked like he pulled off a decent win against Andrei Arlovski, but that was later overturned due to Harris testing positive for Ligandrol. He then returned by winning two straight via KO and found himself with another big test in Alistair Overeem in his last outing. He lost that via TKO in the 2nd round. What we are getting at here, is how up and down his UFC career has been. He seems to put together a few nice performances and then loses via DQ, PED's or being finished in big fights. He will have another chance against 8th ranked Alexander Volkov. A.V. presents some unique challenges for Harris. He is long, rangy and will throw high volume, including many techniques that allow him to keep the fight at distance where he can really shine by utilizing his reach advantage. One thing with Volkov is he makes some questionable choices at times, which can get him in trouble. There is no doubt that from a volume standpoint, Volkov will eclipse anything Harris can put together, but Harris seems motivated as ever and we feel has a few areas he can exploit in Volkovs game. Harris will be patient and preserve his energy to land a big shot, and we feel at some point he will, and we are not convinced Volkov has the chin to take it. It should also be noted that A.V. has not fought a southpaw in almost 5 years, and that will take an adjustment period early when Harris is most dangerous. We feel this is a fight where too much is being made of the 'more skillful' fighter. Skill is not always what wins out in MMA - especially in the heavyweight division when your opponent hits like a truck. This line is wacky to us, Harris is live for the first 2 rounds.
LOST - Take
Jared Cannonier over Robert Whittaker (3:50p.m, Saturday, October 24th)
In the co-main event of the evening we have middleweight title contender matchup between former champion Robert Whittaker (21-5) and Jared Cannonier (13-4). This has fight of the night potential! Just an incredible matchup and we cannot wait. Let us start with Cannonier. He is either a man on a mission or made a deal with the devil. He fought in the UFC at heavyweight back in 2016 but has since cut all the way down to 185 and is now a serious contender at middleweight. Once a journeyman martial artist, Cannonier has looked unstoppable. He's won 3 straight in the division against David Branch, Anderson Silva and Jack Hermansson (all by knockout). We are not sure what, and apart from the obvious physical look, something has changed in Cannonier. He seems on an entirely different level in both his skill sets and mental mindset. Jared Cannonier mirrors his opponents well and has outstanding timing with his defensive and counter abilities which could be problematic for Whittaker. Speaking of Whittaker, there is no denying the man's talent and abilities. He has been in there vs. the best and looked outstanding. However, he has been in some absolute wars and it seems as though they have taken a toll on him. He was hurt badly in both fights vs. Yoel Romero, was knocked out cold by Israel Adesanya and dropped by an elbow in his last fight against Darren Till. The illnesses, injuries and constant shots to the head are catching up to Rob and we believe this is the fight that really puts the nail in his coffin. Whittaker has the higher level, big fight experience, possesses the wrestling and speed advantages and this price seems too good to be true to the casual fan, but the profits are in the details and this is a fight where the head forward charge of Whittaker will not work. At the end of the day, if Cannonier wins this fight, he will get his shot at the Middleweight strap, and while Whittaker may look good and dangerous early, we feel it's just a matter of time before Jared Cannonier lands the big shot to shut the lights out. These men are at opposite ends of the motivation spectrum, and the hunger in Cannonier is real. Give us Jared to win his 4th straight and cement himself as the next challenge to Adesanya.
