[edited out]
With all being said, I believe is like we're in the panic period like the price is forcing those who can't withstand the pressure to sell whereas they have to stay put and some how endure this period which I know is not going to last up to a week or 2 before we start seeing some changes as in the price movement start taking a step up.
It is ONLY a panic period if you have not prepared yourself financially and/or psychologically for a wide array of possibilities, and so if you already have some reasonable approach to a plan that you have been employing for 12-18 months or longer, then what would be the reason to panic - except that you are not investing for the long term and you are merely trying to play this particular wave, whether we are currently at a kind of top, then you are considering taking profits, but you would not want to take profits here if there might be a higher top 3-18 months down the road.
If you had not noticed, I am personally not very sympathetic for trying to consider traders or those trying to play bitcoin in the short term as if they were taking a reasonable approach to BTC, which I consider to be a 4-10 year or longer investment, and the ONLY reason that I even accept 4 years as a minimum timeline is because I understand and appreciate that there are some folks who are old (and who need to stay somewhat liquid) who might want to get into bitcoin, so yeah those ones may well have some difficulties towards even committing to a minimum of a 4 year timeline.
Others with a shorter timeline are trading, and sure, I am not against people doing whatever they like, but I like to consider bitcoin as a long term investment rather than something to fuck around with trading, so I give few shits about folks trying to figure out exactly when a local top might be and some panicking or not panicking based on some uncertainties, because maybe they are even playing around with money that they actually need so they might not even know how to mentally get to a point that they are investing rather than trading, even though they even mix up words and they call periods of less than 4 years as if they were investments, when they are not.. especially in something like bitcoin.
I doubt that I am being overly restrictive in my ideas about bitcoin, because I do believe in spend in replace kinds of activities, and I also believe that if someone is able to front load his/her investment into bitcoin, then he may well have a lot more latitude to be selling some of his BTC at various points rather than mostly just be focusing on accumulation and/or holding which is the kinds of things that is done with investments.
I do also appreciate that in these times, there are ways in which "no one wanting to spend their bitcoin" is being turned into a kind of attack vector on bitcoin, and surely it is difficult to change the ways that governments treat bitcoin and also try to attack ways in which holders of bitcoin are able to interact directly, and surely shitty products on the chain also drive up fees, which create some incentives to try to use (or to have developed) various second layers that may or may not involve KYC.. so yeah in recent times, even demonizing anyone who does not do KYC seems to be another attack vector in bitcoin by even trying to proclaim wallet providers are Money Service Businesses (MSB) which is also a bunch bullshit to attempt to neuter the power of BTC in various ways, and surely causes some folks to no longer recognize and/or appreciate the various still existing powers of bitcoin.
Who knows after today we might have BTC at $65-69k but is always going to be a wish.
No need to wish.. just accept it for whatever it is. What is the rush?
I cannot recall you ever proclaiming that you have been accumulating bitcoin for longer than you forum registration date.. so I hardly see why you should be in any kind of a rush for the BTC price to go up.. but yeah, I imagine you may well have already stopped accumulating BTC, even though you probably should keep accumulating it rather than considering points that you might be able to sell some of it.
Now, if you front loaded that could be a different story.. so maybe you might be a more sympathetic character if you outlined some of these ideas (and yeah you don't have to give up too much OPsec), so that maybe I might be able to appreciate why anyone with less than 4 years in bitcoin should be doing anything other than trying to accumulate as much as s/he can.. and that would be my presumption about the overwhelming number of the world's population who seem to either be no coiners or lo coiners. . and perhaps a nicer way would be to label them as precoiners, which largely means that they currently don't have enough BTC.. .. so I am having some difficulties understanding and/or appreciating alternative perspectives, unless those are just acknowledgements of not really knowing very well what BTC is.
From how long you have been holding have you been in a situation of not knowing if you should hold or not like you're afraid of losing and then you went on to withdraw, because that's what is happening to some at this point, have you?
I try to attempt to recognize and appreciate folks from what their perspective should be, because surely I already went through those phases of my BTC journey, and yes I admit that the first whole cycle can have a lot of difficult parts in terms of knowing what to do, but I was never a person that was concerned about selling, even though I continued to be a person who was ongoingly concerned about buying more. so in my own situation, at the time, that I came into bitcoin (in late 2013), I had already been investing in various kinds of traditional assets for more than 20 years, so I was able to front load my investment into bitcoin in the first year or two (through 2014 and around half of 2015), but I still had some troubles figuring out the way that I was framing my BTC investment, so yeah, there can be a lot of differences that end up happening when I had been investing for the first 2 to 3 years and largely my BTC continued to be in the negative because the BTC price was going down for most of that time and then ending up in around a 9 months price trough through most of 2015, so my questions had to do if I should continue to accumulate BTC or whether I had enough.. so there can be some points in which you accumulate and you realize that you have enough, but you still don't really have any concrete ideas where the BTC price is going to go...
So surely you could have some disadvantages in coming to bitcoin and you are pretty much spoiled because the BTC price has been going up the whole last nearly 18 months, but being spoiled may well not work to your advantage in terms of helping you to realize that you may well not have enough BTC, but you may wll be too preoccupied by its dollar value.. So I cannot really say what to do, since I had created some of my own systems of dealing with my BTC holdings that had to do with both coming to conclusions of having enough and more than enough, so that I could thereafter plan my raking strategies and/or my sustainable withdrawal strategies which I believe apply to folks who have concluded that they have enough or more than enough rather than folks who might not been able to figure out the value of their own BTC holdings that would help to inform them what to do next..
So I cannot really tell you what kind of a system to establish for yourself and if you might be in the right ballpark of doing the right thing for yourself, and not end up sellling too much too soon under a presumption that you already have enough or some kind of a belief that you might be able to buy back cheaper, which truly I have never engaged in any practice of selling BTC while expecting to buy back cheaper.. since part of my own system of selling on the way up is to sell such a small amount that it is not going to matter because I am selling out of surplus, and I don't care if I am going to be able to buy back cheaper, since I have ongoingly set myself up and maintained a position that I am better off if the BTC price goes up rather than down... and I also maintain a presumption that overall BTC prices are going to keep going up.. even though surely I know that it is not guaranteed, and when a person is already more than 60x in profits it may well not matter as much if he later becomes ONLY 40x or 20x in profits, even though surely it would have had been better to stay 60x in profits or even go to some higher level of profits.. .. but it can take years and years and years before you BTC holdings is both sizable enough to make a difference or even in sufficient amount of profits that you are less worked up about its volatile, and I personally believe that you have better chances of getting that point by ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying, especially if you so far had not been able to front load your BTC investment.
If that's how BTC price is tempting those holding to sell, I feel with the current price at $61k (last time I checked), it will not hit $59k any more but heading to a positive direction.
I never proclaim to know those kinds of things.. the odds for up might ONLY be slightly greater than they are for down, if that is even a reasonable presumption with all of the current oingoing attacks on bitcoin, there may well be some attempts to shake some more weak hands..
