Starting up with such negative mindset or rather a desperate energy just at your very beginning of your investment journey is a sign that you won't go far. Because their is absolutely no way you can attain greatness if you persist or continue in that same direction. Just as you earlier said, nobody can accurately track the Market price regardless. Hence, you are only expect to do what is expected by investing only from your discretionary funds .
Furthermore, DCAing is another convenient method every Bitcoin investors should try to adapt with when accumulating Bitcoin. Why because it is very conducive in terms of accumulating, very flexible and it can irradicate the stress of constantly monitoring the market. My advice: we shouldn't be stocked up in some strategy that could be toxic or perhaps put us in some kind of tight corner in our investment. Being a long term investors is where the real potential of every bitcoin investment is, so don't be mislead by temporary gains else you will be missed out.
Don’t confuse strategy and mindset together, they are not the same thing.
Let me give an example of two investors who both have $1200 that they set aside to invest in bitcoin over the next year.
*the first investor invests $100 every month through DCA
*the second investor also plans to invest with his entire $1200 but later ends up putting only $600 gradually and then keeps the remaining $600 aside incase an opportunity comes up in the market.
Now as you can see that both of these investors are investing only from their discretionary income, both of them intend to invest the full amount, and neither of them is acting out of fear or desperation.
So the only difference between them is how they chose to deploy their capital into investing in bitcoin.
If bitcoin averages at about $100,000 during the year but later drops to $75,000, the second investor who i described in my above example would get 0.008btc with that his reserved $600 instead of 0.006btc at when the price was $100,000. That’s about 33% more bitcoin from the same amount of money.
Now whether this scenario actually happens is a discussion for another day, but this shows that if a person decides to choose a different strategy, it doesn’t automatically mean they have a bad mindset.
Also do not judge an investor’s future success based on whether they strictly follow DCA or not cos a disciplined investor can be able to use different strategies without becoming emotional or reckless.
As long as you’re consistent, does it even matter what strategy you use?; a strategy is only as good as your ability to stick to it through both bull and bear markets.
If you’re not consistent enough, your strategy won’t even matter.