I think that those who believe the best way to go about getting into bitcoin is to wait for it to drop in price, are those who buy an apparent dip, perhaps at $50k when it came down from $70k, but then bitcoin keeps dropping and they sell again immediately at $45k because they they timed the market wrong. There are so many people in the forum preaching to buy the dip or in general to be able to spot the dip at all that I lose my mind when I see that. This is a thread about DCA and the whole purpose of DCA is to get in now! If bitcoin drops you get more BTC for you buck, if bitcoin goes up, whatever you bought before goes up in value and you get less BTC for the buck.

Now let's say a potential investor decides to do 52 weeks DCA to build a bag. It is the right decision either way. If bitcoin keeps dropping for 52 subsequent weeks, congratulations for the amount of BTC you could acquire. If Bitcoin goes up for 52 weeks, congratulations because the BTC you bought in week 1 and 2 and 3... 51 now all went up in value.

Waiting for a dip when you made the final decision to start DCA, which I think is by far the way under current circumstances in the market, is simply nonsense. It undermines the whole idea to start DCA when actually you are obsessed with waiting for a dip.

Sure now everyone will say "see I was right to wait", but in my opinion that is confirmation bias. Nobody really knew where it would go and whether Saylor decides to spread some "FUD" (which I think is not really true, but whatever).

DCA, if you got the means to build a bag on a weekly basis for 52 weeks reliably, is like the perfect insurance against market volatility and any doubt a potential investor may have.

I understand that you are merely giving an example of a guy buying weekly for a whole year, yet I cannot understand too many examples where a guy would be able to establish enough of a position in bitcoin in 1 year, since investing seems to take a long time, even if a guy might be able to frontload by reallocating from other assets into bitcoin.


You are correct to say that any particular time that we cannot be sure if the BTC price is going to go up, down or sideways, especially over a year or two accumulation period, and especially newbies presumptively are starting out with no coins and even if they are buying bitcoin for quite a long time, they will stay a low coiner for quite a long time since it likely takes a decent amount of time to really build a bitcoin holdings that is significant enough to either stop accumulating or to transition from accumulation status into maintenance status.

First we don't know when the price will go down or up, but keep in mind bitcoin tends to go up in price and if you wait for the price to go down to buy it seems like it's just delaying time, not to mention if for example now the price goes down and you buy it with all the money and the amount you have or even as you said with DCA but at that time the price is still likely to go down and it could be that what is done is not to maintain but to sell it at a lower price. And even if the situation is that we have small funds then it doesn't mean we can't buy, with the DCA it helps some people who want to invest with a relatively small amount.

In my opinion no one is right in predicting the price whether it is decreasing or increasing so we don't need to worry about what is happening in the market regarding prices because our job if we are people who are involved in this forum is better for us to see price movements with the aim of being able to make purchases by accumulating the amount that we will add but we don't need to wait to start because usually if we wait at the right time according to our thoughts we will always lose our opportunity to add to the amount that we want to make an asset, so for me the thing that we don't need to do in Bitcoin investment is waiting for the time to do it and have the intention and goal of our planning in buying Bitcoin without worrying about the price that occurs whether it is decreasing or in a period of increase clearly we don't need to know when it's time to go down and when it's time to go up but keep doing it to increase the number of Bitcoins that will become our assets one day.

I’m trying to piece together what you’re saying but to be honest it not really making any sense, how certain are you that it’ll eventually get to your intended dip before investing, let’s assume it doesn’t get to dip you’re waiting on I guess you’ll remain a no coiner a very long fucking time of waiting. If it’s a scenario whereby you’ve gotten to your over accumulation stage and you decide to keep on buying but using the dip strategy that’s way more considerable but the fact that you have not gotten to your over accumulation stage, you shouldn’t be fucking around with the idea of waiting for the dip.
Rather making use of the DCA strategy will ease you of the fear of missing out (FOMO) on buying opportunities and monitoring Bitcoin price every move. For now waiting on the dip shouldn’t be your priority because the DCA as well is multi purpose, as long as you’re constantly accumulating bitcoin, you’ll definitely buy the dip.

If you are using the DCA method, you don't have to wait for market to recover, you don't even worry about what the price is doing because both upward and downward in price movement is still fine as the investment is made with the intention of holding it for a long term. What the DCA method care about is investing at regular interval of time. These analysis you gave are just stress in my opinion because the DCA method already solve that problem, just buy what you have planned to invest at every time and hold tight and in years to come, you will be happy with your investment and the decision you made which is to hold against all odds.

Sure, buying enough amount of Bitcoin within an investors first year of investment might not be easy and may seem a very difficult task to do. There could be several reasons that could limit that and trying to proclaim that it might be very possible might seem unrealistic.

Firstly, one year is just too small to do that, and an investor who just HODLs for a year is far from an investment mentality or to be called an investor. As an investor, one should be able at least to HODL for 4-10 years or more, and of course, within these years, you might not possibly be sure of meeting your set target of number of accumulated Bitcoin since sometimes, financial difficulties or larger expenses can make you cut down on your proposed weekly or monthly buys. There might also be emergencies that will also reduce your planned accumulation amount. So, even though you might have mapped out a particular amount for investment regularly, you may differ from it sometimes due to unforseen circumstances, and may not meet up.

It is best to gradually buy slowly as you can afford without pressure of over aggressiveness, having a long time plan

That’s exactly right, waiting for prices to drop before making a purchase comes with its own risks. One of them, as you mentioned and as those who use the “buy the dip” strategy often experience, is being unable to accurately predict prices. This is what often causes investors who use this strategy to become increasingly stressed, thinking the price has already hit bottom, only to find that it continues to fall to levels they never imagined.

For example, there is currently a lot of speculation that Bitcoin is highly likely to reach $45k, and many view that as the bottom of this cycle. However, if the price were to keep falling to an extreme level of $30k, wouldn’t that cause panic, this is what needs to be anticipated. With the DCA method, you don’t focus on Bitcoin’s price when making purchases, but rather on the available discretionary income.

The dca strategy is a consistent way of buying bitcoin without waiting for the price to drop before buying, the dca strategy is not using small amount of discretionary income to invest with investor discretionary income defers so it can be done according to investors capability there are investors who uses big amount to dca regularly so saying that the dca strategy is using small amount to invest with means that if have big amount of discretionary income you can't dca it's wrong as any amount can go for dca depending on what the investor has as his discretionary income.

Let’s be real here: saying it’s the same for Bitcoin as for other investments is misleading.
Bitcoin drops 50-80% on a regular basis. That kind of crash makes the emergency fund way more critical because the pain is much worse and the temptation to sell at a loss is a lot stronger. Pretending the volatility doesn’t change anything is ignoring reality.
As for manual DCA, cool if it works for you. But most people who prefer manual end up skipping buys when prices are crashing,exactly when they should be buying more. That’s the big risk.
Bottom line is that emergency funds is non negotiable with Bitcoin, and you need real discipline if you’re doing manual DCA. Don’t sugarcoat the risks.