Your way of describing the situation is why we frequently suggest that if the investor is doing any analysis, then the main analysis would be in regards to analyzing his cashflows and figuring out a reasonable amount of bitcoin that he is able to buy each week (to the extent that he is buying weekly).. Sure, there is nothing wrong with doing some other analysis of the market as long as it is not distracting from the main analysis and the ongoing and persistent buying of bitcoin, especially for guys who might be new and needing to take a cycle or more to build their bitcoin position.
I would say that the analysis about the cashflows is probably much more objective unless the person for some reason is lying to themselves. Analysis about the market can be helpful but from what I can see on those places where people do TA, a lot of it is subjective interpretation of some ways of doing analysis and many of them get it wrong a lot as least those that are publicly posted. We see it also frequently in the comments, some say that we are in the bull market, other says that we are in a bear market of the cycle or many other points. If these analysis were more objective, would we not be more accurate about where we are? That is why I'll stick with the breakdown of my own cashflows, and let the market do the market-ing pun intended.
I like to consider the matter, as much a possible, in terms of trying to organize and control the knowns rather than the unknowns.
Sure, any of us can have some ideas in terms the BTC price going up, down or sideways, yet they are at best probabilities that might have greater than 50/50 odds.. so then whatever we are doing should have more knowns and knowable in regards to how often we might be buying and with how much. ..
Yet, at the same time if we attempt to prepare financially and psychologically for either direction.. then we likely will know what we are doing in that regard too, and perhaps the extent to which our numbers might change.. but likely our numbers are changing based on how much of our discretionary income we want to put in.. Ae we going to keep it $100 per week and do we make our buy on a certain day of the week or do we have some flexibility in regards to when we buy?
It seems to me that the more bitcoin that they accumulate (such as if they get to a point that their bitcoin is enough to cover 6-12 months of their expenses or more), then there may be more room to start to make various analysis of their progress and perhaps assessments in regards to whether they might need to adjust the aggressiveness of their bitcoin accumulation strategies/practices.
I think that any serious approach must use the revaluation of positions. I don't think that if we look back 10 years ago that more than a few people would have expected Bitcoin to rise so fast to $100k or more. Obviously some slow stacking plans from 2016 would have needed to be adapted if the people were ever to reach their goals in reasonable time. Twice per year or annual revaluation does not take a lot of time and can make the strategy sharper and increase the chance that the targets are going to be met. We see this also in shitcoins even more, not just with charts. The creators of those coins are desperate these days because things that worked in past cycles no longer work, and they failed to adapt their operations on time and now they are struggling. While they are suffering, Bitcoin has been doing its thing and winning.
Well if a person has an income that varies between $1,800 and $3,500 with a typical average of around $2,500, and he has basic expenses that trend between $1,200 and $1,800, then hopefully he is preparing for the worst case scenario, yet he is going to be pleasantly surprised much of the time.
Maybe he also has some system in which no matter what he is buying $30 per week of bitcoin, and he has a side fund that is around $600, so he knows that side fund covers 20 weeks, yet from time to time, he might have to replenish his side fund, and maybe most of the weeks he is investing $100, but he has some variability.. and sometimes he might even figure out some ways to garner up some extra funds so he can buy more or so that he can put the extra funds into his back up funds.
Yeah, if he has more complicated expenses (perhaps a family that is a bit unreliable in terms of expenses) and income situations that are not steady.. then he is potentially in more trouble and has to keep more back up funds to account for the variability.
I have frequently suggested that guys who are investing in bitcoin have more options once they reach overaccumulation status, yet they still might make mistakes in terms of their own assessment about the extent to which they had reached such overaccumulation status.
Overaccumulation state is the best state to be in. Still more often I find myself in the idealistic group, I always want to have more Bitcoin.
I personally think that the guys that get into the most trouble is if they prematurely declare themselves in overaccumulation status, so we have likely heard about guys who quit their jobs or took other actions, but they were not quite at a place where they could support themselves, so then if the start drawing from their bitcoin they are depleting their principle, and so if the guy has enough or more than enough, then it is likely that the whole value of the bitcoin holdings is growing faster than it is being withdrawn from, so, if the guy has a 30% cushion, then that extra 30% continues to compound upon itself, and there might be some time in the future that he might draw upon some of that extra BTC.
On the other hand, if the guy is maximizing his withdrawal, then he might figure out that he is withdrawing too much too soon.. so he has to figure out how to cut his budget... and from my perspective, it is better to pre-emptively cut one's budget rather than being forced into a situation in which the cutting of the budget is due to the principle not being enough to support the amount that is being withdrawn.
Honestly when it come to trading firstly analysis the markets is the best way for everyone traders to get what they want, but some will be claiming that their the only one that knows all the is the Bitcoin is all about where they didnt know anything thats why all those kind of people lose more in trading, investments and trading everyone has their strategies but I dont know why some will try to use one strategy for both and their expecting be successful how is going to be possible it couldnt.
It's anyone's choice to choose investment or risk more in trading but you can't come into Bitcoin with the mindset of trading and expect to be successful, such person might only make little gains when profit is taken too quick compared to when the Bitcoin in their wallet is held for long-term as required of an investor.
If Bitcoin is for long-term then people shouldn't be taking profits too early or try to use traders strategies which would mostly lead to taking profits early. Bitcoin has it's own strategies that would ensure holding for long-term such as the DCA and so, implementing traders strategies for Bitcoin investment would never make investors reach their targets.
It is pointless and needless for beginner to always be thinking about profit when they know they have not built enough stash in Bitcoin. For a beginnee to be always be haing profit is mind is very risky because it drives trading which is risky.
People should have longtime target, to ongoingly invest for over a cycle, they should not get too obsessed about profit in the beginnung and first build enough stash before they can consider taking profits.
Unless a guy is front loading his investment a lot (and most people cannot do that) then it is going to tend to take 4-10 years or longer to really build up a bitcoin portfolio... and most likely closer (or longer than) 10 years rather than 4 years.
