I like to consider the matter, as much a possible, in terms of trying to organize and control the knowns rather than the unknowns.
That is a very good way to describe it. We can make financial plans for a number of different scenarios and directions, but the focus should be on what we can control rather than spending too much time speculating the market. I am sure that the ultra wealthy and connected manipulate the markets in all sorts of ways, but since I am neither that rich nor do I have media connections it is hard for me to have any influence on the market. Worse it seems that doing anything risky such as leverage or futures trading just seems like one is exposing themselves to be harvested from their money..
Maybe he also has some system in which no matter what he is buying $30 per week of bitcoin, and he has a side fund that is around $600, so he knows that side fund covers 20 weeks, yet from time to time, he might have to replenish his side fund, and maybe most of the weeks he is investing $100, but he has some variability.. and sometimes he might even figure out some ways to garner up some extra funds so he can buy more or so that he can put the extra funds into his back up funds.
I think that the core of someone's DCA strategy should use funds that will buy no matter what. Similar to how the strategy says do not speculate on the price, instead buy, then people should not speculate with whether they are going to have the money or not. Missing a key vital DCA buys could ruin a lot of the benefits of the strategy, and we do not know in advance which these buys are going to be we can only analyze it in hindsight. A secondary DCA that is more risky can be added on top of this so in case there is variability that one can be paused temporarily until funds are in order again.
Overaccumulation state is the best state to be in. Still more often I find myself in the idealistic group, I always want to have more Bitcoin.
I personally think that the guys that get into the most trouble is if they prematurely declare themselves in overaccumulation status, so we have likely heard about guys who quit their jobs or took other actions, but they were not quite at a place where they could support themselves, so then if the start drawing from their bitcoin they are depleting their principle, and so if the guy has enough or more than enough, then it is likely that the whole value of the bitcoin holdings is growing faster than it is being withdrawn from, so, if the guy has a 30% cushion, then that extra 30% continues to compound upon itself, and there might be some time in the future that he might draw upon some of that extra BTC.
On the other hand, if the guy is maximizing his withdrawal, then he might figure out that he is withdrawing too much too soon.. so he has to figure out how to cut his budget... and from my perspective, it is better to pre-emptively cut one's budget rather than being forced into a situation in which the cutting of the budget is due to the principle not being enough to support the amount that is being withdrawn.
From that perspective, overaccumulation could be seen as a risky position and you have given some good examples where it did not turn out so well. I did not mean that one should act in any way like those people, actually I would not change anything at all if I find myself in such a position. I continue the same way as I was yesterday, with that there is no risk to anything. I can understand a bit more people who have jobs that are terrible in some way wanting to quit, but I do not understand those that want to quit all kinds of work. That is not healthy, the human body is meant to be mildly stressed and active in all ways.
One thing I would like to add is that one of best way to accumulate bitcoin is to gather it in a way like you are paid in signature campaign i.e. every week on a particular day. This frees you from tension of choosing the right time to buy Bitcoin on a specific day in week. Like if my signature campaign pays me 100$ on every money and that campaign continuous for 4 years then I will be able to invest almost 20,800$ (5200x4) in to Bitcoin. Provided I have other source of income to meet my daily and emergency requirements this 20,800$ will remain intact after completion of 4 years. This 20,800$ will be able to give me good return, if its not touched for 4 years.
Many methods of passive accumulation are good if done right, but what you have written I don't think it applies to many users. If we look at the data on where the transactions are going, they are often going directly to exchanges. I can't believe that anyone who is serious about accumulating Bitcoin in the long-term would do it this way, these two things are not compatible. If you are keeping the Bitcoin directly on your wallet for a long period of time, I can believe it otherwise I doubt it. Based from some of the payments that I have seen, very few users are doing this unfortunately. Anyway signature campaign payments could be seen as discretionary income, that is good. Those that are trying to use it as primary income are doing it wrong and probably are abusing the forum too..
