The meme is funny but it's talking about the reality. Where's the Leonardo meme that says "I'm not f* selling".
HODL is the key, don't panic.

Shower thought. The next expected bear market cycle will not start until later than expected.

In the U.S. and a few other developed nations, their Central Banks prrrinted billions to trillions of their currency to compensate the people, and help maintain the economy.

Money in circulation has been in its highest point in history, but there’s no inflation. Why?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Because the velocity of money is in its lowest point because most of the economy is CLOSED. Everyone is HODLING cash.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL#0

But what would happen if the economy around the world opens up again, especially in the United States?

I'm going to taunt you.

You said that before, and sure, if you keep saying it sooner or later you are likely to end up being correct (just might take some time), and then you can say.  I told you so.   

 

On the interwebs, none of us can really know the quantity of coins of another.. but sure, reasonable inferences can be made.


In my book, "fake" taunting still counts... .(ok. sure, some might argue that my books are all screwed up, but whatevers)


I am not sure if it helps to have too strong of convictions because the future remains a set of probabilities rather than certainties, even though I agree at the same time any one of us can have visions of the future and attempt to prepare for such scenarios.. but we also should be careful in terms of putting too many eggs in certain visions (even if they might have very high probabilities of happening in a way that we envision).

Another thing is that a lot of us do have inclinations in regards to wanting to be right and also wanting to justify our own behaviors and maybe even selectively considering history that is much more favorable to our having had gotten it right.,. whether true or not.  I am not suggesting that I am any kind of exception to these kinds of inclinations.

Historically, one of the advantages of bitcoin has been its asymmetric bet, and it seems to continue as a very decent asymmetric bet, which largely means that you do not even really need to bet a whole hell of a lot of money in regards to the upside potential in order to profit stupendously from investing in bitcoin... history has proven out this asymmetric bet in regards to bitcoin, and seems pretty likely to continue to prove itself out in regards to the ongoing asymmetric bet.

One of the historical errors that people made was not necessarily the quantity that they failed to invest, but failing to invest at all into bitcoin... so sure, sometimes there needs to be some kind of reasonable stake in order for the amounts to add up because even though investing $1 to $5 per month would have allowed for that portfolio to show a decent amount of value, sometimes a bit more aggressiveness.. such a $40 per month or greater would have ended up with quite greater returns that would have been more meaningful.. and surely not everyone would have had the same abilities to be able to stack away certain higher quantities of value in order to really have been able to profit from bitcoin, but even poor people could have been quite a bit better off by even stacking way very modest amounts, such as $5 in the past 7 years.

Sure, $420 invested over 7 years would add up to nearly $24k in value currently, and even NOT exactly life changing for all people, would still add up to decent value for some folks.. and yeah, I understand that sometimes when people end up being that level of poor that they can only afford to invest $5 per month, they are going to be tempted as fuck to prematurely draw into their investment when they see it going up in value, and then they end up screwing up the whole dca investing system (in terms of delayed gratification and thinking longer term) because they were not able to really set that (appreciating) value to the side and let it continue to grow without tapping into it.. while perhaps continuing to add more value into it (or increasing the DCA amounts) with the ongoing passage of time.


Of course, various macro factors (including seemingly sloppy and desperate monetary policies that rob from the people in broad-base ways) are going to contribute to bullish pressures for bitcoin, including UPpity BTC price pressures, but they certainly do not guarantee the outcome that bitcoin absorbes all the value of other assets and shitty fiats, even though many of us recognize that bitcoin has great chances in these kinds of scenarios including even some accelerations of sloppiness from large governments and financial institutions.

By the way, those dynamics do not guarantee a BTC price floor of $50k or $30k or $20k, or even guarantee that BTC prices might not dip down to the 208 Week moving average that is now at around $9,800 and is going up around $200 each week...

We do not disagree really.. but currently, in spite of regular people getting raped up the ass with the debasing of their money, the overwhelming majority are not seeing the light.. instead we have sophisticated jumping ahead, and I am not even suggesting what you say is not going to happen, but it could take a good long time for it to really happen in terms of even a majority of the population (that is 3-4 billion peeps) having some kind of meaningful stake in bitcoin, when right now, we would be lucky to have 100 million peeps with any kind of meaningful stake in bitcoin... even though we have some BIG players coming in and buying as many coins as they can afford, and saying that they are not selling their coins.

We have no real reasons to suspect that some of the BIG players and institutional players are lying to us about their intentions not to sell any of their newly acquired BTC and to seek real estate on the bitcoin chain by having a bitcoin stash that is going to be way disproportionate in size to what any regular Joe is going to be able to acquire.. with average joes probably struggling to have more than 10k satoshis... by the time they figure out that bitcoin is the place to put your money... and I am not even that concern about average joes coming to the BTC party late (whether that is 5-10 years from now or maybe even 20- years or more from now before some of the regular joes figure out some of these dynamics in regards to bitcoin being the place to put your extra value).

Sure there are a lot of folks that want to debate gold as having some qualities that just cannot be replaced by bitcoin, and sure many of us bitcoiners already realize that bitcoin is way better than gold and the word is getting out their both in terms of talking about it and actual actions that people are taking.

It is quite likely that bitcoin is going to end up 100x or 1000x the market cap of gold even though it will likely take another one to five cycles to make it through some of those higher valuations.

So, of course, there are some that are banking on some kind of catastrophic bitcoin failure or just the physicality of gold, but still we have found out that physicality is not necessarily all filled with positives, andas far as relying and hoping upon some kind of catastrophic bitcoin failure seems like ongoing ways to just deny realities and really attempt to both study how BTC works and what is going on with the various ongoing adoption of bitcoin - even if you might be having trouble understanding what makes bitcoin tick and I surely don't claim to know very many things about technical aspects of bitcoin even though I recognized it as a better version from around day 1 of my decision to start investing in bitcoin in late 2013.  So if I can figure out some kind of a better than gold bitcoin angle from late 2013 (and surely I don't claim to be very smart at all), there has been 7.5 more years of bitcoin's existence including 7.5 more years of a variety of information that is both showing bitcoin to be better than gold in tangible ways of transportability, divisibility, verifiability, more difficult to debase (based on ability to demand possession cheaply, quickly and easily) and way cheaper to store and transport without having to use third parties, and bitcoin's price appreciation (which is also attributable to bitcoin being on an exponential adoption curve, too).

I don't know what it is about, exactly, but I will throw out a few arguments here and there just for funzies.. and probably actions speak way louder than words, including in my case that when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I considered bitcoin as a substitute for gold.  In other words, bitcoin is serving the same functions.. and even MOAR better that that less useful and manipulated the fuck out of thing-i-lie.


You can surely count me in the camp of bitcoiners who believe that bitcoin is going to continue to eat gold's lunch, just like it already has been eating its lunch, and likely the lunch eating is going to continue and perhaps even become more and more pronounced with the passage of more time... if you cannot already see it.. maybe at some point you will start to see what has already been happening.


Don't we already have bitcoin at a trillion?  So gold is at 11 trillion or so, and so will not take very long for bitcoin to reach gold parity and then we get into the 100x to 1000x, which could take longer...  like I already said.

In other words, I have given hardly any shits what peeps decide to do in terms of their allocations, even though I will state my opinion from time to time, which has included fuck that shit (referring to gold), and so in that regard, my action has continued to just say no to gold and to say that it is not needed in any current portfolio if you have bitcoin, and my already taken stance is likely to continue to be true, if not more true in the coming years, and do what you want and argue what you want, and I do not need to argue in terms of seeing how are portfolios are likely going to compare in terms of the bitcoin and gold parts.. mine having only bitcoin and yours having some portion (seemingly unnecessarily so) hedged in grandpa coin gold.

 

 

I don't mean to be combative, since we are becoming such good buddies, Wind_FURY - but why does it matter in regards to the level of liquidity of BTC NOT being up to $1trillion dollars yet?  It's like you are picking some marker that we have not yet reached and then creating a negative out of the situation to say that we have not reached that marker yet.. and makes me want to say.. who fucking cares?

I mean any kind of adoption takes time, so who the fuck thinks that bitcoin is going to get to world reserve currency status soon besides those pie in the sky thinkers who are outlining unrealistic expectations.

In other words, we have positive as fuck developments going on in bitcoin on an ongoing basis and maybe even moreso recently including, probably, being a bit ahead of schedule in terms of where bitcoin's price is at currently, and likely a wee bit much of institutional FOMOing into bitcoin (some of it outright and some of it likely behind the scenes), and so in that sense why pick out some places where bitcoin has not yet gotten and frame those failures to achieve as if they were bitcoin negatives..

Patience young padawan.. we are going to get there (at least it seems quite likely).

Patience.. it could take 50 years or more to get there, and it does not matter if it takes a long time because bitcoin continues to grown on an ongoing basis, in spite of its price volatility and in spite of a potential price crash that could come at any time now or such BTC price crash might wait until BTC price peaks in this cycle anywhere between $100k and $1.5million... and yeah some people are talking about bitcoin going into a supercycle in which its price does not crash blah blah blah, and that just seems like pie in the sky wishful thinking coming from peeps who are blinded by being in the midst of a cycle and witnessing so much ongoing bullish bitcoin news that seems to be disproportionate to bitcoin bullish news of previous cycles -even though theoretically such a thing as going into a supercycle is possible, yet in the end, bitcoin (and markets overall) no does not work like that, and the supercycle bullshit.. just like the immediately moving bitcoin into a world reserve currency status (or having to get to reserve currency status in order to be successful) are pie in the sky assessments that are likely putting way too many requirements on bitcoin in ways that are likely to lead to disappointment by having expectations that are way too high..

Having said all of that, sure some of those outrageous bull scenarios could end up happening way quicker than expected, including kinds of collapses of traditional systems that accelerate way more value to flow into bitcoin .. but I doubt that it is healthy to expect those scenarios as if they are inevitable or to suggest that bitcoin is not successful unless and until such scenarios play out blah blah blah.. when the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin is successful as fuck whether such scenarios play out or not, and bitcoin is even successful if it ends up stagnating between $10k and $100k for the next 10 years, but sure, maybe prepare for such outrageously bullish and bitcoin as global reserve currency scenarios, both psychologically and financially in case they do end up happening could be helpful - even while such scenarios should be appreciated as long-shot scenarios that should not really be included as if they are the most-likely scenarios, or they have to happen, when more likely scenarios (including where we are at currently) are still bullish and positive, in and of themselves.. without having to add additional pie in the sky expectations upon our lil fiend (aka bitcoin).

hahahahaha

I am using those kinds of expressions just to harass you, and it seems like it is working..

 



Of course that could end up happening in the coming years, could take 50 years or more to develop or might never happen..

Doesn't it end up being a BIG so fucking what?  in terms of current considerations about where bitcoin happens to be and a lot of other stuff going on..?

Yeah sure, its not like I cannot see bitcoin going in that direction, but still it does not seem to be any kind of immediate concern - unless some kind of ideal circumstances occur in which confidence is lost in various other systems and all of a sudden there wide-spread confidence to put value into BTC... yeah, sure it could happen and it could happen quick and sure there are a lot macro circumstances suggesting that it could happen quick, but still seems to be like a big so fucking what.. if it happens it happens, and many of us BTC HODLers benefit a lot, but no way that we should be desperately relying on such a scenario to happen or even close to happening to be able to profit the fuck out of bitcoin (if we have not already) from its likely ongoing price trajectory that are in more probable scenarios rather than waiting for some kind of pie in the sky reserve status blah blah blah...

Regarding getting gold's market cap, that seems almost like a done deal already whether it happens this particular cycle or it takes one or two more cycles.. and didn't we suggest it is around 10x to 11x to reach gold parity (in terms of market cap), and depending on how you measure BTC's performance, we can already see that from a $5k-ish bouncing off point, BTC has already had 10x to 11x price appreciation in about the past year (accounting for the major dip in March 2020), but doing another 10x or 11x from here seems more than reachable in terms of reasonableness and prudence (even if it is not guaranteed to happen), it has pretty damned decent odds for anyone actually understanding in any kind of way what the fuck seems to be going on, currently and why BTC's price is continuing to rise in spite of it having had already risen a whole hell of a lot in the last year and even a whole hell of a lot in the previous years.  

There were a large number of smart people who were calling bitcoin a overinflated bubble at $3k to $6k blah blah blah.. and then they seem to not have any fucking clue about how to analyze bitcoin because there are still a decent amount of "too smart for their own good" peeps out there who have hardly any way of wrapping their dumbass heads around creating their own prudent and practical strategy around bitcoin, including ONLY needing to put 1% to 10% of their investible assets into bitcoin in order to be in a position to potentially profit from bitcoin, just in case it might happen to catch on.   hahahahahha  dumbasses...

And by the way, sure we can appreciate that there are a certain decent number of those previous categorized dumbasses who are actually coming around to bitcoin and starting to figure it out.. including realizing that they do not necessarily need to take a large position in bitcoin in order to profit stupendously, even though some of them (once they get it) have difficulties in restraining their lil selfies to a 1% to 10% position, and why the fuck should we care (as HODLers?)... we benefit from the fact that there are some peeps who are starting to "get it" even though there are still plenty who still do not "get it."


That's not really that "new."  Sure, so far, bitcoin has seemed to have had patters of repeating its peak periods within a kind of 4-year pattern that is almost eerily "on schedule".. like it is almost programmed (which could not really be the case that human behavior is actually locked in to having to comply with any kind of imposed timeline in terms of exponential s-curve adoption or whatever other dynamics are driving bitcoin's price - beyond a mere 4-year fractal pattern... so yeah, surely bitcoin price dynamics could blow outside of the four year fractal..  We have already discussed a couple of the recent BTC price rise patterns, 2013 and 2017.. so 2013 had two exponential periods that largely played out in a year and 2017 had one exponential period that drug out for nearly two years before climaxing.  So, sure I think that it could still be in the cards that 2021 could end up having two rather than one exponential periods that could then cause the price rise to drag out longer.. but who knows for sure until after the fact, even if we might be able to sense what might be happening while it is happening (but we are not sure about it), and so even if we might not be sure about what is happening or what might happen while we are in it, it remains decent to understand the realm of possibilities to be able to assign probability values to the various scenarios that might unravel in front of our eyes in order to be prepared both financially and psychologically for both upside and downside scenarios that might end up playing out... so in that regard, sure we might end up assigning higher values to one theory or another theory and then we end up being correct about the theory that we assigned the most probability, but still it does not hardly mean shit that we had happened to be correct because  none of it is guaranteed until it has already happened then it is guaranteed - even though some of us describe history in different ways too, even though it already happened to have happened.