It seems to me that merely investing in bitcoin, you could end up doing or motivated partially by all three simultaneously...

that is trading

investing

and

engaging in a revolution



Of course, there are many of us including but not limited to yours truly and likely you too Wind_FURY who tend to want to think about bitcoin as an investment and a long term investment.

Surely, you and I have some disagreements regarding how much emphasis to give to buying on the dips versus engaging in a kind of pure DCA - and I am not really opposed to attempting to do both, even though you Wind_FURY seem to believe that bitcoin investors should attempt to understand their investment sufficiently enough in order to be able to identify when dips are happening and to attempt to take advantage of such dips in order to be able to both acquire more BTC on the dip but not to spend as much of their fiat prior to when the dip occurs.

It seem to me that the engaging in a revolution part does not necessarily need to be present from the start or even a sole motivation, but it could be part of the motivation to be into bitcoin and maybe even part of the reason to hold a larger amount of investment into bitcoin because there is a belief that bitcoin is changing the world in meaningful ways.  When I talk to newbies about bitcoin, I don't necessarily start with talks regarding how bitcoin is a revolution, but sometimes the conversation will go in that direction. .and at the same time, I do believe that a lot of folks could establish quite strong investment theses into bitcoin without even necessarily believing that bitcoin is a revolution - even though it does kind of seem that the more deeply anyone attempts to understand and appreciate bitcoin's contribution to society, there is going to be some likely increased understanding regarding bitcoin's revolutionary angle.

Actually another thing about the revolutionary angle is that when you really start to understand the power of bitcoin and the fact that it was designed in such a way to be able to be somewhat resilient to attacks from state actors and even powerful private actors, there is a kind of "holy shit" appreciation in regards to the power of that kind of system and amazement in regards to the fact that anything like that could really be designed, and perhaps part of the lack of understanding that so many normies no coiners have in regards to bitcoin remains their skepticism in regards to believing that governments are more powerful than they are in terms of being able to control (or even stop) bitcoin if they were to not want bitcoin, so that angle that challenges so many perceptions (and conceptions) regarding how the world works remains something that is so hard to wrap our heads around.. even if we have been in bitcoin for a long time, many of us continue to have doubts in regards towards bitcoin's various resiliencies that are somewhat embedded into its already genius design... and also a lot of luck that so many of the basic design components have not been undermined in any kind of meaningful nor substantial way that would cause bitcoin to lose its resiliency angle within its design and how it operates every 10 minutes producing another block and no one can stop it.. hahahahaha  that's powerful.

Anything that you post is fair game, whether you believe it to be trivial or not.


Fair enough.  I won't argue with that.   


Well, yeah.  It does seem that the proclamations about bitcoin going to zero are seen way less regularly, and perhaps it is becoming much more difficult to either believe those kinds of projections or to even figure out ways to say such a thing without looking like a total nutjob.

I do believe one of the better ways of denigrating bitcoin does end up being when bitcoin is not differentiated from the many retarded, scam, smoke & mirror, "crypto projects out there.. not sure if there is any need to name the so many variations of such deceptive projects and the ways that bitcoin is lumped in with that crap - while at the same time, there is some truth to the various claims that bitcoin had enabled (and maybe even continues to enable in some indirect ways) the abilities to carry out so many ways to lull people into not really necessarily knowing the differences, but then even perhaps getting invested in some kind of way.. mentally or financially into the so many ways that technology is adapting in the real world.

Regarding bitcoin, for sure in the past couple of years, if not longer, with the exception of March 2020, there have been quite a few struggles to even get the BTC price down to the 100-week moving average, and currently that 100-week moving average price is nearly up to $35k, and even in June/July 2021 when we got down to $28,600, the 100-week moving average was at about $20k, so surely the 100-week moving average has continued to hold up pretty well in the past couple of years, and perhaps it had not really been breached since March/April 2020 when it was at about $7,200 at that time.

You can see the historical 100-week moving average prices here.

I am not saying that the 100-week moving average might not end up breaking, and surely we seem to be getting quite close to it - because it continues to slowly move up to higher prices, yet I would not be putting any kind of meaningful value in terms of either believing that it has to be met - even though we surely do continue to have a lot of worrying macro-events ongoingly taking place as well as the seeming precariousness of the juggling of various fiat systems (possibly better known as bubbles?).

I continue to argue that the 100-week moving average tends to serve as a bottom price for corrections during a bull market, and perhaps the fact that the 100-week moving average has not really been preached for nearly 3 years (absent the short-lived March 2020 liquidity event) supports the theory that we have been in an ongoing bull market since 2019... while at the same time, the use of those kinds of longer term moving averages, such as the 100-WMA.. does end up serving as a lagging indicator to tell us where we have been rather than where we might be going, so in that regard, if the 100-week moving average ends up getting breached for a decent amount of time, then we might be able to proclaim that the bull market may well be over and we are in a bear market - for however long that new status of a bear market might end up lasting.

So, then the 200-week moving average becomes the likely extreme bottom for when we end up being in a bear market, and currently the 200-week moving average is just moving above $21,500. 

You can see the historical 200-week moving average prices here.

For sure since early 2021, there have been quite a few folks proclaiming that bitcoin has to get some kind of a correction back down to the 200-week moving average, and holy shit.. the 200-week moving average has more than doubled in the time that those proclamations have been being made..

Even though quite a few more finanancialization tools have been introduced into bitcoin (including but not limited to futures/options products) that have been allowing for the naked shorting of bitcoin, so there is likely some truth to the matter that some of those tools can be effective in keeping bitcoin prices down.

Historically, those same kinds of tools have been successful in keeping PM prices down ( such as gold), while at the same time, bitcoin is a different kind of asset than PMs such as gold in terms of the ability to easily claim possession and to verify it without expensive third-party processes.. so in that regard, some of the bitcoin shorters and those who do not have the bitcoin that they proclaim to have (or that they are using in their various bets) may well get caught with their pants down in terms of their inabilities to cover the value of the coins that they are betting as if they had them.. which are ultimately client coins.,. but if they do not have them to give to clients, then there could end up being some pretty BIG wreckenings that are not are not really resolvable.. and maybe even some of the institutions/governments might not be ready, willing or able to cover those kinds of games that rich folks believe that they can get away with largely based on the fact that they have been getting away with that kind of fuckery for a decently long time.. ... so surely who knows if such wreckening scenarios will end up playing out or not.. even though I personally believe that there continues to be greater dangers in bitcoin than in other asset classes for the rich and/or even governments to be fucking around with trying to hold bitcoin prices down through those kinds of financial instruments (or even new variations) that have worked for them historically.

I suppose that my punchline is merely just to watch one stage at a time and perhaps there continues to be some questions about whether the 100-week moving average is going to be breached.. and if it is breached, does that 100-week moving average start to serve as resistance (rather than support) which largely would just mean if the BTC price were to be able to stay below the 100-week moving average for any kind of meaningful length of time beyond a few weeks, that is if it even were to get there.  I have my doubts, but I don't want to be caught off guard in terms of presuming too much regarding where the BTC price might go and how long it might stay there.

This is off-topic, but I don't want to start a whole new topic just for this. It was Hal Finney's birthday yesterday.



Happy birthday! I didn't know him personally, nor have I interacted with him anywhere, but I wish I did, I probably would have learned many things from him. The real knowledgeable Bitcoiners are gone, or have left.

If they continue to doubt, ignore. If they ask for an opinion when to buy, ignore. Because if you make a mistake and price goes lower, they will blame you. If you give them an opinion when to buy, they will laugh at you. Some people laughed at me with this when I said Bitcoin MIGHT crash to the 200-weekly SMA line within the year. That's currently $21,858.63.

Easy to say but would really be hard when you are on the actual situation specially as of this moment where price decline is something recognizable or something which you cant ignore.
Pretty much sure that to those who had bought on 36-38k are on panic now.Its true that buying even more on this price level is a good or ideal or simply talks about DCA.
If you do still have that funds to invest then its up to your choice if you could still put risk but if not then its better to hold because price would recover no matter what
but somehow knowing on when for it to happen is something that no one could really know.

Investors who follow a truly DCA method don't panic, especially if the investment is in Bitcoin. Zoom out, where is Bitcoin going? Up. Plus from the use case side of things, the true underlying nature of Bitcoin,especially in geo-politics, might not be priced in yet. JuanJayGee is a believer of DCA, I respect his standpoint, but personally it's not good for my sanity. Hahaha.

Unfortunately the only existing and dominating narrative right now is the one that has convinced everyone that bitcoin follows US stock market which means as it is dumping hard, people panic sell bitcoin too. Sadly it has been an impossible task to make them realize that bitcoin was the exit not the repetition of the same corrupted markets.

The only question remaining is how much more are people going to follow this fake narrative and act irrationally since I don't think the US stock market crash is going to stop but I also don't think bitcoin can continue falling like this. At some point it has to stop and reverse while the stock market continues crashing.

In any case it is interesting to see this very new market behavior this year.

When the bitcoin price at the end of 2021 reached more than $50k I often saw people buying if the price was below $35k, now in telegram chat a lot of people are spreading FUDs, it even looks like they are massive and organized more than 10 people, are they paid to make users panic?

I do not believe this not any more. Instead, I want to say buy with everything in a bull season even scam coin will gives you profits. Sell everything and wait for the next bull season in a bear market. Buying the dip in a bear market is like a suicide because the market will create lower low in every month. I do not care about 2017 or 2018 I see this right now in the current market.

Why don't you think that DCA can help you collect assets at different prices every time you want to buy?

You don't have to buy this asset with all the capital you have in 1 transaction, you can save some of your funds to make another purchase if the price drops lower than before. In the long run the accumulation strategy of buying dip and hold + DCA will help you make a profit, that's great and a lot of people have done it. Then why don't you?

You shouldn't think the downturn is the end, the trend will change and you should be prepared enough and have a number of assets that will benefit you if the trend changes later. The decline in price will eventually form the basis of a new price, and you should know that the price will not always go down.