Aaron Van Wirdum’s scarcasm aside, is questioning the validity of the model a dumb idea?


“Is dead”? I was merely questioning if it was currently valid, and if yes, then what factors should we consider until it starts to be invalid?


The line is near $100,000 ends during the first half of 2024, then next horizontal line is $1,000,000. If price regresses below the $100,000 line, and never surges to $1,000,000 during 2026, what now? Move goal posts because “reasons”, right?

I believe that would be an admission that the model has been invalidated in the face of new data.


Exaggerating? Your over-reaction is exaggerating. I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes.. one thing is talking about buying on the dip, and another thing is putting such matter into practice.. and we need details regarding that rather than mere overview theories.

Accordingly, you could have "favorable circumstances" and skills.. but you can still fuck things up if you are trying to be too precise with what you are doing in terms of timing the bottom.. and getting it wrong.

I have buy orders set down every $1k down to $20k.. but it is not like I really even want then to fill.. I would prefer that the price goes up....

Remember around December 3, we had a dip down to $41k-ish... so then there might have been some thought that the dip was over because we recovered to $52k by Christmas time.. but then resumed our gradual plodding DOWNity... so sure there has been buying from me in this second round starting at $44k-ish.. and then every thousand dollars down to $38k-ish, so far.. and my order did not fill in the $37ks, yet... and I would prefer that it does not.... so are those favorable skills and circumstances?

Some people have ongoing cashflow.. but should they buy at any price, or try to buy on the dip, and how do they know if they are buying on a sufficient dip or should be hanging onto some of their cash in case there is more dip?

The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.



Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb... and many of us are vary happy with our bitcoin investments, whether BTC over or underperforms models, such as the stock to flow model, and so times like these (when the BTC price is dropping quite deeply), there can be questions about what to do?  Do I buy on the dip, do I hold or do I sell?  And hopefully people are smart enough NOT to sell, but surely when the price is dropping, we know that there are more sellers than buyers, so in that regard the price would not be dropping without sellers... so some people believe that it is the right move to sell some or all of their coins.

In any event, there is nothing wrong with having a vision regarding where the bitcoin price might be in the next four year halvening cycle (which would be 2024 to 2028), but of course, we have to get through the rest of this four year period following the halvening first to see if the Stock to Flow model underperforms during this period, whether such underperforming (if it were to happen) needs to influence the model in terms of either tweaking or invalidating it...  If you are wedded to absolutes, then it seems as if you are referring to your own dumbass interpretation of the model (including maybe following some dweebs on twitter and saying that you believe that they are smart and therefore, you want to listen to what they are saying about the stock to flow model blah blah blah.. maybe just some fantasy ways of interpreting such model)...  


Don't be ridiculous.  We have talked about some of these concepts before.  You get so caught up in assumptions about supposed capital that some people might have versus other people, and of course, there are differences in terms of people who have been investing all of their lives and people who may well be in their earlier stages of investment.  I would hope that people with more investment experience have built up capital, but their success in building up capital should not disqualify them from being able to understand the better ways to build up capital and to comment on those kinds of strategies, even if they might not be currently employing those strategies because they are already beyond the earliest of wealth building strategies.

I know that I keep repeating that the best strategy is DCA with an amount that is reasonable for you.. whether it is $5 per week or $100 per week or some greater amount if you can afford it. ... however, you want to continue to assert that you are so smart.. and that you have sat on your hands in the past, and you still believe that waiting for a better price is a better strategy.. and I say fuck that nonsense..., Of course, you can play around with part of your budget in terms of waiting, but establish a reasonable DCA strategy with a reasonable amount of your budget, too... Yeah, of course, you can do what you like, but to be claiming that you know better about timing comes off as quite pretentious.. and if you really believe that you know that the BTC price will go down further.. which is a bunch of bullshit..

The last 8 years since I have been in BTC there have been all kinds of people who have proclaimed to have been smarter than BTC and asserting that it has been going down and blah blah blah.. and sure, they can frequently be right until they are not.. and in those cases when BTC decides to reverse and to go up.. you have had better have been prepared for UP.. don't get greedy.. maintain practical ongoing preparations for UP, and it does not have to be your whole budget.. like I keep saying until I am blue in the face..... but no of course, Wind_FURY.. you are smarter than DCA... and you believe that you can time the matter, even though such timing of the matter has not worked for you in the past.. but this time you have it all figured out, right?

 Furthermore, there can be some advantages in being in bitcoin longer in terms of having longer and longer to build up your orders (your buy orders and your sell orders and maybe even just being able to get ahead of the price in various ways to be able to play the BIGGER swings)... so if I am buying every time the BTC price drops $1,000 I am not saying how much I am buying, so it could be $5 each time, and that would be another $75 to get from our current price of $5k-ish down to $20k-ish ($5 each $1,000 drop adds up to 15 buy orders and $75)... Of course, the amounts that are bought each $1k drop could be larger amounts, so work with what you got in terms of strategizing the amounts of your DCAs, your increments and how far down you want to set such buy orders - whether they will ever fill or not and if you want to maintain them or not.

So even if you have complete discretion in establishing the strategies that you might want to employ in regards to regular buying of BTC and buying on dips, it's almost impossible to figure out the bottom of the dip, so I would suggest not wasting too much time on that strategy of trying to figure out the BTC bottom, unless it is merely supplementing some other DCA and more straight-forward and systematized buying on dip strategies that you might be employing.

By the way, as of this morning, I have had 6 BTC buy orders that have filled between $39k and $34k (so every $1k increment), and yesterday, I had realized that mostly I had set all of these buy orders in early September 2021 and the one at $39k-ish I had to reset in mid September 2021 because there was a dip that went down to fill the earlier $39k-ish buy order and so after the price went up above $46k in late September, that $39k-ish buy order was reset.... so much of my orders are already pre-set.. and I am not really in BTC accumulation stage anymore, I am in a kind of maintenance stage... but of course, if the BTC price drops more than 50% from $69k in November down to $34k so far... then for sure I end up accumulating more BTC.. .but it is not like I accumulate 50% more BTC.. I accumulate maybe 1% or 2% more at best in such a streak.. and if the BTC price goes back up to $69k, maybe I end up only having 0.5% more BTC than I had the first time around... perhaps? perhaps?  it is not guaranteed where I am going to end up, even though I have a system that I have been following since about 2015 with some tweaks.. and I consider what I do to be maintenance and really modest in terms of attempts at capital preservation and ways of attempting to somewhat insure my BTC holdings.

Guys should be attempting to tailor to their approach to BTC to their situation... so they have to figure out how much they are still in the early stages of BTC accumulation or have they transitioned more into a kind of maintenance stage of their BTC portfolio management... for sure, there is a lot of attempts to target the discussion at guys who are likely in various accumulation stages.. because many of us have to go through such a stage..and can sometimes question whether we have quite graduated out of such stage.. especially when the BTC prices end up dropping so much (which great levels of volatility is a kind of inevitability in BTClandia, anyhow)..

Seems that we can attempt to build our BTC approach to structure what we do, and not get so tied up into figuring out how much of a dip there is going to be, even though it is hard not to watch it in various ways, especially when extremes seem to be happening.

I know Wind_FURY that you had been proclaiming that you had fucked up a few times in the beginning in NOT beginning to DCA into BTC when you first got into the forum in mid-2016, so at what point did you stop screwing up might merely be something that you can consider in terms of your own situation and maybe how much BTC to continue to accumulate.. presuming that you have not gotten out of BTC accumulation stage yet.

No one is saying that any of these matters are easy in terms of if you have various expenses, and you are trying to figure out how much extra cash that you have on a regular basis and how much to use for buying BTC right away versus waiting for a further dip, in the event such a sip happens.  Part of the reason that I described a structuring down of outstanding buy orders every $1k down to $20k, is not to proclaim how rich I am, because you surely do not need to be rich at all in order to employ such a strategy, but the level of your cash flow is going to help you to determine how much you might want each of your buy orders to be, if you are comfortable to place some kind of buy order down every $1k down to $20k.  

Also, don't get me wrong.  I have no desire for the BTC price to go down, and I could give less than two shits about buying more BTC below $42k, but what choice did I have?  In recent years, I have found it psychologically helpful to me to maintain buy orders down to the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $19.2k and it moved up 132% in the last year.. which is amazing in itself), but my maintenance of buy orders down to the 208-week moving average does not mean that I want those buy orders to fill.



Hopefully people are not so dumb as to be waiting to buy BTC based on some nonsense about some supposed lower price point.. and yeah of course you are presuming a bear market.. and that may be a wee bit premature of a presumption.. but hey.. whatever you do you.  

You seem to have fucked up before by not regularly buying in 2016 and thereafter, and you seem inclined to just repeat pretty much the same mistakes of your past, and you do this on an ongoing basis with your ongoing desires to wait rather than to figure out some reasonable ongoing buy amount.. and sure it does not have to be your whole budget.. you can save some for dips, in case they happen..  sure maybe you will make some of your historical mistakes less worse, but I doubt it.. especially since in bitcoin the best strategy has been DCA'ing because we cannot really know.. even though you want to presume a bear market.. and seems that you have done that several times before and failed to adequately and sufficiently buy BTC during those times that you thought that BTC might be in or going into a bear market.. In any event, does not seem to be a good strategy to be waiting around instead of just buying regularly with a meaningful amount (even if it is only part of your available BTC budget).

In other words, like I said, the best strategy is to figure out a reasonable DCA amount and to do that every week.. $100 per week is a good target.  Another thing is that once you establish a reasonable DCA strategy, then of course, you can hold some additional amounts for buying on dips... and of course, how you divide those amounts are within your discretion to figure out what you believe might be better for you and your situation in terms of both psychology and finances.. and of course, I have been an advocate of time in the market rather than trying to time the market.. especially when it comes to BTC.  

Of course, we have not guarantees where BTC price might be going, even if we can look back and see where the price had been, but just in the case of someone like yourself, there are ways that a $100 per week strategy, and maybe even some lump sum investing along the way, would put you well over 15 BTC by this time and merely investing around $31k during that time. For sure, buying in 2016 and early 2017 would have gotten you the most bang for the buck in terms of front loading possibilities, but even if you had just DCA'ed at 100 per week, you could have pretty easily gotten yourself into supra 15 BTC territories by now, and that kind of an amount is nothing to sneeze at... even if the investment would have been somewhat modestly aggressive.... so of course, if we cut down the amount by 10 and say that you did not have enough money to be able to invest $100 per week, then the amount of the profits would be cut by 10 also.. so instead of being in the supra 15BTC territory, you would be in the 1.5BTC territory.. with an investment of $10 per week instead of $100 per week.

Yes... maybe you are starting to get it.

Broadly framed.. good to use as a reference.


Perhaps...  I don't recall that specific issue... but it could have been that I felt some need to attempt to ridicule you.. but there might be some need for a context, to the extent that it might be relevant to anything at this moment besides your hurt feelings...



Your negating a currently valid model is ridiculous.. and your making up your own wild claims seems a bit ridiculous, too.

Did we have a specific claim that we currently wanted to explore?  Or you just want to whine about hypotheticals?



You are misguided if you are making those kinds of comparisons.. but do what you like.

Do you have anything topical, or you just want to cry over spilt milk or some past issues/grievances that you might have about some vague issues that are only quasi-relevant?

Does not really matter that much to the extent that we have both beaten this topic to death and that there is only so much that the specifics of the topic of stock to flow (and the extent that any of us use it as a guide) is part of our rationale for BTC price dynamics - including whether to buy on dips. or if there might be an UP portion coming in the near-term.

You can use whatever theories/models you want in terms of deciding how you are going to strategize your ongoing bitcoin accumulation or if you are going to stop because you want to wait for down that might not happen.


You are just making shit up... what else is new?  You are the one who actually had egg on your face in about March 2021 when you proclaimed that BTC would never go below $50k again, so at least you had recanted that.. and recognized that you had overly proclaimed.  I don't make those kinds of proclamations, even if you want to read certainty into my assertions, I don't do that..   You should know that by now,  you disingenuine dweeb..

And, sure there are always going to be some statements that are made that are strong in one direction or another, and especially dealing with a dweeb like you in which you are ongoingly goading peeps with some of your nonsense proclamations or just repeating something that someone else said and then not taking responsibility for your reposting that same idea. or waffling all over the place.. which seems to be your shit-stirring inclinations.

When push comes to shove, and when I am assigning various probabilities to various price directions, you are not going to be strong statements out of me, even if I might call you a disingenuine waffling dweeb from time to time, and you cannot hold that against me for making a true statement.  In any event, you are not going to be seeing me making very strong assertions regarding the price will never go.. blah blah blah.. even though I might make strong assertions regarding what direction is more likely, but even a strong assertion from me might only have something like a 60% probability, depending on how the subject matter is framed.  Even my December 16 rendition of probabilities shows around a 45% assignment for down rather than UP. - that is if we are using $62k as the threshold price (but I might have to change some of those numbers based on some of BTC's recent price movements). so.. it is NOT like I ever take strong stances on any price direction..

By the way, changes in BTC's price performance causes changes in what probability assignements should be assigned to certain directions, so nobody should be expecting that anyone is locked into some kind of statements regarding probability assignments that were made a few months ago if some of the dynamics have changed.. .. so the extent to which new facts or logic changes the probability assignments is surely going to have some subjective components in respect to how each of us might come to differing conclusions in respect to how much information we know, how well we understand various indicators, how much weight we assign to various indicators, and sure maybe even some unknown aspects, too.


 Again shows your poor thinking skills when you when you continue to make such comparisons... but hey.. do what you want.. reflects more upon you than any kind of fact that you are making a meaningful statement/comparison... maybe just shows that you get hurt by a variety of peeps and you want to express how you feel like a victim..


 Yes.. we beat this to death, sir... and for some reason, even though you want to discuss such stock to flow model, you make no postings in the thread in which it would be more appropriate to do so and perhaps get a more targeted audience.  Instead, you probably feel that you can get away with your vague nonsense because largely it appears that you are coming at the whole matter from a lack of informed direction... and you really don't seem to want to try to understand the model that you are criticizing.  Feels better that way, right?  Even though it makes you look more like a dweeb than some of your historical showings of your dweebness on other topics.  


Sometimes some name calling might help to make the point.. so usually it would not come out of the gate unless the person is showing a pattern of disingenuineness quite early on.  If you start to raise some thread-related substantive points, then maybe we can get back to discussing substance?  That would be nice, to the extent that you might actually be interested in actually talking about the subject of this thread... our dip in the past 4 hours brought prices down to $32,951, but there was a wick up to $38,050 (talking Bitstamp here) that preceded such down price movement by about 2 hours..

Interesting place we continue to be.. kind of hovering in the $34ks currently... and pretty decent ongoing volume to see if we can stay down here or what's going to happen in the current battle?  more dip buying opportunities or not?  Might we resume up, or not?


Edited:


By the way.. I had to go back to add to this one.. one more time...

Guys deserve to be ridiculed when the fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for up, and they also talk others out of sufficiently/adequately preparing for UP.. because they presume that they know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term... so whether BTC prices are at $60k, $40k, $35k or maybe even $20k, each of us needs to make sure that we are sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP.. because in bitcoinlandia, you can never completely know when UP might happen and to punish you for your failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately prepare.  Seen it several times.. and don't really know that it has happened until after it has already happened.. and the mere fact that the BTC price has moved down recently does not justify that anyone who is longer term in bitcoin should have been sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP or more UP, even when we were in the $60ks in October and November.. just a short while back.

You ONLY have yourself to blame if you are insufficiently and/or inadequately prepared for UP when it happens (and we cannot know when that will be with any level of confidence).

Yes....   you are largely just repeating your dumb... over and over and over.. and trying to play gotcha when there is no gotcha there.

I have already addressed this.., including the need to put things into context.

Some calls are more reasonable than others, and none of us know the future.. including that BTC frequently performs outrageously to the upside and to the downside so hopefully on a personal level each of us are prepared for both.

Most likely you are not, and that is partly a result of your playing around and attempting to make BIG calls, when like I already mentioned many times, you would likely be way better off with dollar cost averaging.... and then just having orders set in case the price went down.  I have had orders down to $20k since October and before that, so surely I don't want the price to go down or expect it to go down, but I am prepared for such both psychologically and financially.  so hopefully you can learn and practice some good techniques rather than just screwing around with ongoing gotcha attempts... including now.. what are you doing?  are you buying or sitting on your hands?   maybe you should snap your lil selfie a wee bit better into the present , no?


Oh.. finally you recognize that there is a topic.  Great.

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

Never get into panic sales or buys. Yes buy at dip and hold. Just have more patience and enjoy your own huge profits. But we find it hard to have patience. Not sure why. But yes it takes time to be so. Many learn it after loosing a lot. Just pile up as much as you can from your monthly income if possible as like saving small amounts in banks. This will help to increase the capital holdings and profits in future as well.

Definitely, nothing can go wrong with this little but no secret formula in crypto market, but the dip and enjoy the ride. I mean no matter what, specially in crypto winter? this formula is still applicable, and it's one way to survived in this bearish cycle. So this dip is a "window of opportunity", the only caveat is that you need to have capital and mental toughness. But if you go over and won the psychological battle, for sure you will be rewarded in the future.

Buying the dip is always the best choice, I agree. I think that people who buy the dip only are the ones who make the most profit compared to the other type of investors. But they make that much profit in a long term of course. HODLers can lose and make lots of money on this road. But in the end, they will reach their goal as long as they are patient and don't panic-sell in this period.