I’m merely sharing information/opinions, both collected and learned in the topic.


Personally, I believe dips are still for buying, but to friends and family that I have forced, almost, to buy Bitcoin BELOW $10,000 a year ago, I tell them be careful because it’s not the ideal situation from a psychological perspective. They should commit.


I said $50,000 is the “new $10,000”, THEN I said that Bitcoin will never trade below $50,000 again. If you got the context you would understand that I was teasing the trolls/big blockers/nocoiners who laughed at the people who said that Bitcoin will never trade below $10,000 again.


It’s also not something “a Bitcoin ready to start a bear cycle does”. Shower thought, what if we knew what price/how low Elon Musk placed bids?

“Bigger players” might be Billionaire-Saudi Princes, and Arab Oil Sheikhs. They’re interest in Bitcoin would also turn on the interest of “bigger players” from London, Tokyo, and New York, simply because it’s where billions in capital is going. Next to follow would be Central Banks, and the State.


A drop of 80% from ATH of $300,000 is $60,000.

I'm also quite surprised Bitcoin can go up to the new ATH at $ 62K so fast, like you said I am also optimistic that it will be easy for Bitcoin to go to
a price of $ 80k. And if the $ 80k price is successfully achieved, it is not impossible that the $ 100k target that some people have predicted will
come true. But it's too early to mention we don't see a price below $ 60k again this year, I predict Bitcoin may drop below $ 50k. Because the increase
was too fast and drastic, but it won't drop below $ 40k this year.

I came to BTC in mid 2017. Tough times after that. lost quite some money. not much for others, but enough that it hurt for me. Observed BtcUsd then for some years and nowadays I try to buy the dips, with most of my free fiat. Selling partials at every ATH and buying back at every +10% correction works quite nice, these days. Still, it looks like there is a parabolic selloff ahead, looking at the cycles of BTC. So I do use an "SL", in form of an price alert. So I could always get out at Breakeven if there is a need to. other than that, hodl!

So, in some sense, you are being misunderstood.. by me?   

In other words, my interpretation of your your "negative" thoughts should be more fairly read as words of inspiration to the "no coiners", "pre-coiners" and the "insufficient quantity of coiners" ? 

Mining death spiral claims are hardly even worth responding to.  BTC mining hashrate could get cut by 10.. meaning only have 1/10 the current hashrate and still dwarf any computing power that even comes close to its magnitude.  In other words, reduction in BTC mining hash rate that is anything less than 90% is nearly pure noise in terms of the solidness and security of bitcoin, even though we can still analyze such changes (and many do) in hashing power in order to make other kinds of claims/observations regarding entrants and exits of mining.  One of the amazing recent phenomenons in bitcoin does seem to be that previously unprofitable mining has become considerably profitable so there remains decent incentives for entering into mining or expanding BTC mining capacity.   

Let's see the hashrate cut by 10 before even discussing such baloney mining hashrate in terms of death spiral mumbo jumbo distractions.

Hahahahaha

I was actually thinking about you, Wind_FURY (nohomo), and part of the reason was because you were saying the never below $50k quite fervently and even seems to me that you had already been wrong earlier.. but even as the BTC price went up to nearly $65k, surely that helps a lot in terms of making a price cushion, but even about a 23% cushion (the distance between $65k and $50k) is hardly anything in bitcoinlandia.  Yeah, people like to say this time is different and supercycle and blah blah blah, and we know that historically we have had greater than 50% price corrections during a bull market, even though tards like to get stuck on 30% as if it were some kind of maximum BTC price correction, and yeah, there is a lot of hype in bitcoinlandia, and yeah there are BIG players and institutions that want to buy every dip blah blah blah, but those BIG players and institutions are not going to be strong enough to fight the trend - even if the trend might be merely temporary - but when such negative trend is happening, it is going to feel like it is permanent, just like every other correction that may well be emphasizing FUD and nonsense and exaggeration etc etc, and we are also NOT really going to know when the correction is over.

I know that I am a bit of a broken record regarding what to say to family and close friends in respect to what seems to be somewhat differing views and approaches to the matter.

Almost always I am telling people to get the fuck into bitcoin ASAP and figure out some kind of system that is going to work for them in terms of not only figuring out their own financial circumstances (which largely is a problem for a lot of people to even get started in bitcoin because they have pretty shitty financial circumstances), and if they can get past their personal financial circumstances, then they can establish some goals in terms of the stake that they want to achieve in BTC using tools of DCA, buy on dip and HODL.. which largely is to start accumulating BTC ASAP within their own personal circumstances.  I also will assert that they are responsible for their own investment circumstances, so don’t come crying to me if they invest too much or gamble or whatever they do not figure out a level of BTC investment that is good for them.  

So in that regard, I give hardly any shits about the BTC price, even though I will agree with you that there is a bit of a subconscious element in me in regards, to having some reservations in terms of any kind of aggressive BTC investment plan that I may recommend when the BTC price has gone UP a lot in recent times, so in that regard, I would probably emphasize the buying on dip portion rather than either the DCA portion or the front loading possibility… though all of these have to end up being balanced with their personal circumstances, which remains their responsibility to assess (not mine – which I like to frequently point out).




Hahahahaha

You should know that I have hardly any clue, except my sense was that you were prematurely calling bottom levels or support levels that hardly make very much sense if we had a BTC price rise of 5x to 6.5x within 6-8 months (depending upon when such measurements were made).

We also know that BTC can sometimes go into a kind of punishment mode too, in terms of going UP without coming back down, so maybe it there would be a decent amount of Uppity, and even if we ended up getting up to $70k or $80k, there could be some sub $50k corrections that might last a bit of time or just end up being quickie corrections.  

From $70k to $50k would be around a 30% correction, and from $80k to $50k would be around a 38% correction.  

In my thinkenings, neither of those levels of correction (30% to 38% or even greater 50% or more) would be out of the question, even though some peeps want to emphasize baloney theories about this time is different and supercycle and blah blah blah.. that are nearly pure theoretical rather than how relatively “free” markets really tend to work (and I would suggest that bitcoin does seem to fit pretty well into a relatively “free” market categorization.


To me, it seems that you are contradicting yourself when you assert alternative theories (or back up theories), and sure it does not seem to be a problem to attempt to maintain varying scenarios in your head, and then if some certain facts play out, then your future projected scenarios would thereafter reflect those new set of facts (even if you had not expected those new facts to play out).

Maybe part of the problem is to assign too high of probabilities to scenarios that you consider to be quite unlikely, so you go so far as to express what you perceive to be highly unlikely scenarios in terms of absolutes rather than for what they really are which is highly unlikely.

Actually, I am also of the opinion (which kind of agrees with you) that we should not be spending a whole hell of a lot of our brain power in contemplating theories that we estimate to be highly unlikely, but surely when they end up happening or even some other variation that is NOT quite as extreme, at some point we do have to recognize and appreciate that we need to adjust a decent amount of our whole perspective once either the less likely scenario ends up playing out or some lesser version of such scenario that we had calculated as NOT being too likely.


For sure we have been in buying on the dip territory, ever since about $55k (15%) and surely at various points lower than $55k, and yeah some peeps might prefer higher dip thresholds before they recognize that the dip is worth buying, but we should not want our greed to get in the way when there may well not be further dippenings.. and of course, perspectives regarding what is enough of a dip will vary depending on how much BTC that we already have… In any event, so far we have had a 27% dip from about $65k to $47,500, and sure we might get more dip in this cycle, but we might not, too.  

There does seem to be some decent momentum for more down, but we can really never know when the down is over, exactly.

If you hardly have any BTC, then you wait at your own peril.   In other words, when you are attempting to get to your accumulation numbers, there may well be an emphasis to just buy regularly and DCAing on a regular basis, but if you have some BTC already, then you might be employing various levels of buying on dips, and if you have a decent amount of BTC, then you may have the luxury of more aggressive strategies that largely require a BIGGER level of dippening prior towards triggering your buy finger.

Edit:  fixed quotes 

This thread is about bitcoin, so seems quite likely (at least to me) that the principles do not apply to other coins besides bitcoin, at least when I am talking about it.  Surely, I would not be suggesting the same strategy in regards to any of the shitcoins, whether ethereum, one of the bcashes, doge, or any other shitcoin, ICO, Defi bullshit or NFTs.  Fuck that crap, even if in terms of dollars they have been outperforming the dollar.  We're talking about bitcoin here in terms of buying on dip and HODL (and I keep throwing in DCA too.. which none of that applies to shitcoins, if that is what you mean by "crypto?").

Sure it might depend upon how you think, and of course, if we are just talking about bitcoin, then it is a bit easier to make sure to specify that, but if we are talking about other cryptos which surely sometimes might be what we want to do, then it is probably a good idea to specify in some kind of way what we mean or if we are just speaking generally.

For me, I am pretty serious about NOT necessarily suggesting the same strategies in regards to various shitcoins, and there is a kind of timing and strategy element that I consider to make buying that crap a lot more time and information sensitive, and sure there are people who actually believe that they can apply DCA principles to various shitcoins, but the way that I think about DCA, buy on dip and HODL is that you need to have a pretty decently strong conviction regarding the long term (and fundamentals) of the project, and personally, I don't see any shitcoin that would have such characteristic - even though I do understand that there are some other people who actually do arrive at differing assessments than mine, so if they have those convictions regarding whatever there shitcoin, then they could apply these strategies, at least from my perspective (and I don't presume to speak for others in that regard).