It's really very laughable because my friend was one of the people who was telling them, almost begging, and definitely being very annoying, to buy Bitcoin during the bear market. It would have been a golden opportunity for them. But what did they do? Because maybe some plebs are smarter than other plebs.

Even those of us who have been following bitcoin for years have troubles identifying bear markets with very strong levels of confidence, and also part of the reasons that traders (who are supposedly experts in price/market watching) have high levels of failures in regards to not being able to figure out with any kind of high level of confidence whether we are in a bear or bull market.

So if neither the experts nor the peeps watching bitcoin for years can get it right, then it surely is not fair to expect newbies to bitcoin to get it right or to create systems in which they are even attempting to get it right... which brings us back to DCA, as amongst the most basic of systems to at least to have some level of adequate/sufficient preparation for UP when/if such UP happens.

Lots of peeps try to write off or denigrate DCA as being brainless and failing/refusing to maximize the buying of dips; however, one of the problems with that kind of an assessment of DCA is that it can still take a whole hell of a lot of time to really attempt to be precise (or even to maximize) your DCA strategy in terms of figuring out your own budget... and not to overdo it, too.  So many people (both young and old - even though the old do tend to learn some of these matters through some of the pains of experience) have difficulties establishing various kinds of emergency funds in order that they can have some kind of a floating balance of funds that are available in the short term and they have created optionality regarding from which funds they are going to draw upon in the event of tight cashflows (unexpected expenses or lessening of income).

Even having a lot of experiences with managing your own finances can still put a lot of normies (and I am not completely exempted from this either) from wrongly calculating some of the management of short to medium term cashflows which causes some needs to draw from areas/funds that were not meant to be touched (especially something like bitcoin should be part of the NOT touched funds that are ONLY drawn upon completely based on 100% choice rather than being forced into NOT having enough liquid reserves in various funds to cover expenses). 

Let's say that someone is just coming to bitcoin and they have a lot of fucked up circumstances in their own prior financial management including a lot of debt (something like $10k) that needs to be paid off and not very reliable levels of cashflow - including failures/refusals to invest or to create reserve cash balances (such as an emergency fund).  So, in some sense they do not have much if any investments, and they might have a bunch of consumer items that they own that have depreciated in value and might even be pretty costly to maintain (a car can be one of them), so if after calculating all of their cashflow and expenses, they have determined that they have about $100 per week extra that they could start to put towards attempting to resolve their various cashflow/savings/investment issues.. so maybe the next 2-4 years, they need to spend time getting their shit in order. and instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin, they make some choices to invest $10-$25 per week into bitcoin and use the  other $75-$90 per week to make progress towards paying down debt and building a cash reserves.  Yes, it could take time to make progress, but sometimes there are needs to look out past the short term and to figure out how to make progress towards fulfilling goals to be able to have made more options for oneself by getting their finances in better order.. while at the same time, bitcoin should likely be part of the package - even if the amount that can be dedicated towards investing in BTC cannot be as large because from my perspective it is way more important to get your financial matters in order so that your BTC investment and other aspects of your life are less reliant upon gambling rather that creating purposeful systems that build an investment portfolio which will also creates more options with the passage of time.


I don't have a problem with anything that you said Wilhelm - even though so many of us can look back and hypothesize that we "could have been more aggressive with our BTC investment."....

Another sense of the whole situation is that we ONLY know what we know, and every moment we are making tradeoffs regarding how well we should live now versus how much payoff (delayed gratification) we might get by attempting to have a somewhat aggressive BTC investment strategy.  It's never going to be certain regarding whether some levels of self-sacrifice in the present might pay off greater in the future, versus some of the value that comes from buying goods and services (and experiences) in the present.

We can look at our current situation, and try to assess whether we are currently being sufficiently aggressive, and at the same time, we also have to be careful about being overly aggressive.  I understand that you likely look back at the past 8-9 years, and you can recognize some of the dumb ways in which you spent your money, so in that regard, as you already seemed to have mentioned, you are judging your prior behaviors in light of what you have later found out - which is that bitcoin has been way more bullish than expected.. and the downsides did not play out in bitcoin as much as they were feared.... so yeah, we are never really removed from those kinds of calculations in the present - and surely those of us who have already established a decent BTC stash (likely including both you and me - even though maybe to differing levels) are way better off because of the passage of time and that we had chosen to continue to HODL some proportions of our BTC stash - rather than cashing out too much too soon.  So, we can see that some of our peers had chosen to cash out too much too soon.. or even to fail/refuse to continue to invest into bitcoin because they had bought at $60, $600, $6k and even $30k.. so they start to feel uncomfortable buying at higher price be bitcoin has likely already become disproportionate proportions of their overall investment portfolio allocation.. so at some point, it does not seem to make as much sense to continue to buy bitcoin when bitcoin represents the overwhelming majority of your wealth.

It's a bit difficult to speculate various situations of people, because sometimes young people are in real early stages of just figuring out how to manage whatever income they have, and if they go to college, they have the challenges of figuring out how much money they might have in those circumstances, when maybe they are also trying to get good grades to get placed in a decently paying job....

I sometimes feel as if I sometimes presume the situations of others because one of my advantages in coming to bitcoin was that I had already established a decent investment portfolio, so it was just a matter of reallocating for me, so between about 2014 and 2020, I had always suggested that people should consider a 1% to 10% allocation of their investment portfolio to bitcoin, so with that framework, anything between 5% and 10% would have been reasonably aggressive, and anything above 10% would potentially be overly aggressive.. .but at least the person getting into bitcoin under those circumstances should NOT be going in blindly or at a kind of beginner level.,. but with some study of the subject.

In about the past 6 months, I have adjusted my beginner investment into bitcoin framework up to 1% to 25%, so there are surely new ways to consider what is aggressive within that framework (still above 5% into bitcoin might be considered sufficiently aggressive).  

Another thing is that if you got into bitcoin in the past 6-9 years, you may well could have gotten away with just regular aggressiveness on the lower end of the scale and still reached some kind of wealth appreciation that put you into a very solid place.  Yet, the way to hang onto such value.. let's say a modest investment that might have gotten 20 to 50 BTC, that might have ONLY had taken $5k to $25k of capital to acquire that quantity of BTC (which is suggesting some luck in having had been able to acquire BTC between about $250 and $500 per BTC), but then the question thereafter would have been being able to hang onto such BTC for several years and through the price run up of 2017 and the so far price run up of early 2021... so if the investment into BTC had been more aggressive, such as doubling the investment amount to $10k to $50k, then the BTC stash could have been double to 40 to 100 BTC, and therefore could have allowed for more wiggle room to HOLD onto a certain core level of those BTC.. so in that regard, there can be some longer term pay-off in having had "overinvested" into BTC, but at the same time, the that overinvestment into BTC still would not be enough if the person did not have the foresight and ability to hang onto a core amount of the BTC.. so for example, investing to buy 40 to 100 BTC, but not letting the core level go below 20 to 50 BTC.. something like that.

I would want to be more someone like you, than someone like sgbett or proudhon, who I believe were the aggressive buyers of Bitcoin but might have sold them for a mere 10x of their original investment. Currently, they want Bitcoin's surge to happen to BCash SV.

Although deep inside of me doesn't believe, or doesn't want me to believe, that there are no guarantees, I believe saying that there actually are NO guarantees is the right thing to do. Especially the newbies. 2019 was a very different experience, I was very enthusiastic in telling everyone "BUY NOW", but I had much to learn, and still have much to learn.

As a financial hedge, I still believe it's better to wait for the DIP, but as a hedge against a non-elected cabal who might/are making mistakes concerning the monetary system, I agree, don't delay and HODL some now.

I'm currently taking a free course on basic options trading, and while researching about options exchanges, I discovered a decentralized options exchange built on Ethereum. I'm starting to believe that some altcoins might not be actual "shitcoins", and they might actually be useful specifically for wealth-building.

I'm starting to find it necessary for what I need, but I can always use Deribit although I don't find long term call options that expire for more than one year in their exchange. I'm merely trying to be ready for a March 2020-like crash situation. I believe if there was a long term call option available during that particular crash, with a strike price of $50,000, that would have been a very profitable "gamble".

Cz of binance said that if you cannot hold you cant earn big in crypto. I agree on his statement because i saw Bitcoin price rise drastically from the past untill present.buy the dip and hold is a very simple yet profitable strategy but still people is struggling in terms of holding only few persons has a strong hands to hold that is why only few earn.

What do you mean, Epaper?   If there is a longer investment timeline instead of considering selling in the short term, then is it going to matter very much if BTC today might be purchased at $40k, $30k or $50k?  Sure, buying at lower prices gives more options, yet is there any kind of way to really know which way the BTC price might be going in the short-term? 

Maybe part of your concern about selling target is that you consider the premise of this thread to be incomplete since this thread is largely presuming longer term investing such as 4-10 years or longer, so is not really contemplating shorter term selling price targets - which you seem to be presuming is lacking in the way of considering investing into BTC.

So if we already are considering the longer term, how are we going to know which way the BTC price might be moving, except by looking after the fact?   And if we are considering our selling time frame to be 4-10 years or longer, we might just presume that the BTC price has good chances of being higher 4-10years or more from now as compared to its price today... of course, no guarantees, but something that many longer term investors will consider will be to consider possible selling parameters when approaching those dates further down the line and quite a few things (including BTC price) cannot clearly be framed at this time and may also be not very relevant at this time, except for a kind of presumption that BTC prices will be going up relatively speaking an in real terms rather than mere nominal terms.

We are not really going to be able to know with any level of confidence if the BTC might be going up or down inm the short term, will we?

And, do you believe that it makes a difference how we might think about the matter of accumulating BTC in the event that we have zero BTC currently versus if we were to have already bought some BTC earlier?  So the amount of BTC that we have accumulated could be a factor too, especially if considering what we might be doing in the short-term in order to consider accumulating BTC for the longer term, no?