The price decline that occurred today was partly due to the existing Fud, as well as the Chinese government ban on bitcoin mining in their country, making bitcoin prices more crash , but we also cannot forget that the large supply and demand factors also have a bearing on what is happening today.
Believe it or not, but the volatility of the cryptocurrency market which is quite aggressive today caused by the explosive growth of crypto assets a few months ago, which when crypto prices were in a positive/bullish position at that time, has attracted a lot of investors/traders newbie and amateurs, So that when FUD started to attack at this time it made them scared and panicked so they sold their crypto in large quantities, so that in the end market conditions got worse due to the panic.

Probably one of the greatest likelihoods in bitcoin is that it is going to be ongoingly volatile - even though there are also likely going to be periods of BTC's price moving within a range, so we are not always going to know either how long the ranging will last, when the BTC price will break out or the direction of the BTC price break out, but most likely the range is not going to last for more than a year... but even that is not guaranteed...   

BTC's price was pretty much ranging in through $250 for 10 months in 2015 (mostly from $220-ish to $280-ish, with a few breakouts in the midst of that).. and this particular cycle (referring to our being in a bull market since April 2019), so far, we have not had any BTC price ranging that has lasted more than 5-6 months, so surely we could enter into another one of those periods in which we are stuck in a narrow range for a decently long period of time, but I am having quite a few doubts that we will be hanging around these $30ks for anywhere even close to 5-6 months, especially that I am still working with an underlying presumption that we are likely continuing to be in a bull market, until the facts and logic start to have stronger inferences that we are no longer in a bull market, and I personally do not like to make presumptions on what has already happened, including the fact that we have had around a 56% price correction during what we had already considered to be a bull market and the mere fact of a 56% price correction (so far) does not convince me that we are yet outside of the bull market (conclude whatever you like, but that ongoing bull market continues to be my ongoing conclusion until shown otherwise from further facts/logic).   

So, of course, even though anything is possible, we have already been in this particular price range of the mid-$30s-ish for around 6-7 weeks (which may well be considered a blip in the whole scheme of things, even if it might “feel” like a lifetime while we are going through it).  Surely the BIG question remains about which direction the BTC price is going to break out.. and is it more likely to break up or down.. and when is that going to be happening?


sure


Yes.. differing styles for different folks in terms of how many BTC you are willing to hold, which may end up losing value during BTC price dips.

BTC price performance history has already shown us year after year after year that there ends up being only a few days in each year that you needed to be “in” bitcoin in order to receive the vast majority of the profits for each of the years, and if you were not in it during those periods, your BTC portfolio was likely to have suffered extreme under-performance, so sometimes folks who fuck around with too much of their BTC portfolio end up NOT being sufficiently “in” when they should have been in… and their BTC portfolio ends up considerably underperforming what it should have with a simple HODL strategy rather than a fuck around strategy… not accusing you of “overly fucking around,” yet New.in.trading… even though some of your ideas do appear that you might be contemplating trying to engage in such attempts at timing that might end up NOT working out as well as you anticipated in the event that you are not comfortable with your level of prepared for UP in the event that an somewhat unexpected BTC price jump does end up playing out.



 DD means down?  Of course, we know down can happen any time, so sure, each of us has to figure out how much we might want to balance for that.



 If you believe that there are “no signs that BTC will rise again” currently, you might be missing some signs, perhaps?



 Bitcoin is much more sophisticated than a piece of art, so sure you might be able to put the various factors together and figure out what is the trend, and so it would likely be easier with a piece of art, but sure, there is uncertainty, even with art regarding when the trend might change… I would suggest that shitcoins are likely more like art, but bitcoin has some broader aspects to considering it, in terms of bitcoin being a paradigm shifting protocol that leads the whole sector and the vast and overwhelming majority of various shitcoins and scams are quite a bit dependent on bitcoin in order to retain much if any pumpening value, but bitcoin as a protocol has so much of a lead over any of those other various matters that try to present themselves as equals, but even the newbies buying into the various shit projects and scams in the overall crypto space could bring money into the whole space that ends up gravitating into bitcoin, even if there may be so many factors to attempt to consider beyond merely trying to figure out what is the current BTC momentum and trying to consider whether BTC prices might currently be in a short term correction versus whether if a bear market has actually have been triggered, and if you end up wrongly concluding a bear market when the bear market has not yet come you may well end up not being adequately prepared for the UP that is coming.. and sure ONLY you can decide whether you are adequately prepared for UP, or you want to wait for more signs of UP before you are willing to put money back into bitcoin, and I surely don’t consider it a good idea to wait for a sign, such as breaking above $46k or breaking above $50k before getting back in when you could have bought around 30% more BTC if you had bought in the $34k to $35k price arena rather than waiting for lower BTC prices that end up NOT happening.. balance? Balance, no?  and each of us come to differing conclusions regarding whether if we may have balanced our own situation in ways that are comfortable for our own situations both psychologically and financially.



 Of course, the factors for buying a house are going to be different from bitcoin too both in terms of liquidity but also in terms of how much you are ready, willing and able to be tied down geographically.

Even though I suggest to people investing into bitcoin that they should be considering a minimum of 4 years when they buy into bitcoin from any new purchases of BTC that they make, but at the same time, we know that bitcoin is way more liquid than real estate – so even 1 year into the matter, some people might end up deciding to cash out of bitcoin without as many costs as cashing out of the house that they had chosen to live in. 

We have also already seen that sometimes the level of bitcoin’s liquidity has caused it to have a lot more short term volatility, but surely comparing bitcoin to various other assets, whether we are talking about housing, precious metals (such as gold) or stocks can be never ending in terms of how closely some aspects might align (in terms of momentum) or whether we might be better able to predict momentum changes in one asset versus another or even determine when a price bottom might have already been reached…for that period.



Well you might run out of cash too.  Let’s say for example, you started buying on the dip at around $52k, and then you bought again at various points in the $40ks, and by the time the $30ks came, you ran out of money because you did not consider the BTC price to go that low.  Sure those things can happen, and each person has to figure his/her budgeting including if they are DCAing, buying dips or performing lump sum investing.  They also have to consider if they have enough BTC or if they want more.  Sometimes if they feel that they already have enough BTC they will just HODL through the whole situation, including a 56% (so far) dip.

Getting out would likely be a bad idea.. also selling some now, and hoping to buy more at a lower price might be a bad idea too… but it might not be a bad idea to just keep collecting your cashflow and holding whatever BTC that you had, and if a dip ends up happening, have some varying price points that you may end up buying the BTC price dip from here.. whether you might start buying at $32k and various price points below that or if you believe that you might want the price to go lower or even to considering that you are only going to buy more BTC if the price goes below $25k or even $20k… so surely, people are going to come to differing conclusions regarding that including considering if they should just buy back whatever they already sold, even if they might have sold too much at sub-$30k levels from a couple of weeks ago because they thought that the BTC price was going to go lower, and now they are uncertain about whether the BTC price is really going to go lower – in spite of the so many ongoing seemingly scare tactics and maybe some of the folks are who might be feeling desperate because they sold too much too low of BTC prices and they are worried about whether the BTC price is going to dip below prices in which they had already sold.. too much too low.
 



I doubt that there is any such thing as a “perfect buy spot”, and it seems way safer to try to play these matters incrementally rather than gambling in regards to how low the BTC price might go and when it might go there (and then does it happen? Maybe?  Maybe not?).


 Now might be a good time to buy, depending on your situation, especially if you are either new to bitcoin or you have an inadequate preparation for UP.



Yes, I am going to consider a house or pms differently from how to assess bitcoin, and trend is only one of the factors, and surely we cannot even know whether we are in a downtrend or not, even though we can have presumptions about that, and those presumptions could end up being correct or incorrect, so hopefully no matter what we decide we should be sufficiently and adequately preparing just in case we might be wrong.



Of course, if you have a 50 year timeline you might consider differently than a 4-10 year timeline, so what you are considering for 50 years (which seems a bit ridiculous to be planning too many specifics for that far out, even though you might be able to create some timelines for that far out).

Many times, people might be early into their working lives (or money earning years) and be considering that they might end up working 40 years or more before they are going to be able to stop, but they also might be considering that they might be able to stop working 20 years early if they invest smartly, so frequently there might be some ways to attempt to make plans that are much shorter than 40 years to 50years, but surely, there could be some back up plans that are in place too in case some plans that do not work then you have the back up plans. 

A lot of people are not planning too many specifics even further out than 10 to 20 years, because they surely need to see how the next 10 to 20 years go before they can get into too many specifics in regards to planning after that – even if they might have some foundational aspects in place for those longer timelines.
 

Sure.. maybe it will and maybe it won’t.  Instead of investing 10% or more of your total investment portfolio into bitcoin, you might decide to invest only 1% into bitcoin because you believe it is a long shot, but merely having skepticism seems to justify reducing the amount that you invest rather than refraining from investing, and of course, the longer their timeline that any of us has and the more doubt that we have would justify DCA investing and even possibly lowering the amount of the DCA rather than completely removing DCA investing or saying that you are going to wait and see which you may well never get any kind of decently strong evidence, but if you are sitting back and waiting, then the price might be continuing to go up and you continue to lose opportunities to have been able to accumulate BTC at a lower amounts, even if the lower amounts seem insignificant at the time. 

I recall several times in 2015 having screwed up cashflows, but every once in a while I would get an additional $100 or $200 come in, and I would sometimes BTC when the BTC prices were largely around $250… so $100 would get me around 0.4 BTC or $200 would get me 0.8 BTC, and sure at the time, it seemed like small amounts, but surely that is only 6 years ago, and the amounts are seeming to be quite good, currently, and there were several people telling me that it was dumb to be buying BTC during that time, and it just seemed that BTC prices were in a “downtrend”.  But in the longer term, the relatively conservative and ongoing buying into BTC ended up paying off quite well… even though at the time (in 2015) there was a feeling that there might have been just throwing money into an ongoing black hole that was not likely to hold its value because there was so many failed efforts to move up, and every once in a while pushes downward in the BTC price, including in September/October 2015 when there were pushes down to $200 that ended up never going that low in price ever again (at least not so far).
 




You must be selectively blind, and I am not even going to go into that nonsense assertion of yours.
 



 
Oh gawd.. you are not really making matters better with your claims about what the mainstream might see or not see.. It almost seems as if you are making stupid-ass BIG blocker arguments about bitcoin not being usable for payments, even though selectively ignoring that a whole country is making bitcoin legal tender based on a building of second layer payment systems.

Oh those people or governments do not count because “mainstream” is not talking about it.   


Hm?  Go figure?  I thought that bitcoin’s enforced scarcity was a pretty big deal, but hey, what do know?  Merely because there has never been such an asset that has even come close to bitcoin’s level of scarcity, that’s not important.. it’s just a random unimportant aspect of bitcoin that does not matter… hm?  Who would have thunk?
 



 Sounds like you have devolved into a discussion about NFTs, and even though bitcoin is the best of NFTs, it still has 2.1quadrillion units (aka satoshis) (that could be further subdivided), but hey bitcoin is way more valuable than art in the sense that there are units that can be moved around and we know the value of them (as it changes over time).. and we can transmit them, hold them and they are quite amazingly verifiable, securable, portable, and we may or may not decide to use 3rd party services in our management of them, while some financial institutions and rich people are hoarding them, but what do they know?  I am just going to sit back and fail to accumulate some for myself because I believe that they are not valuable.  Yeah right.




Interesting theory that you have there, New.in.trading…


NOT.




Of course, you can believe that BTC is no different than anything else.  That’s your choice.
 



Well, if you are establishing some kind of a long term plan that is related to BTC, then there should not be any problem in terms of figuring out how much BTC you might want to hold, and how regularly you want to be buying BTC… or even how much cash you might want to keep in reserves in the event that BTC prices drop some more from here.  None of these matters about the future are going to be clearly laid out in terms of providing any kind of road map that any of us might be able to follow in order to prepare ourselves for varying BTC price directions, so I doubt that you should want to regret overly preparing for down, and then it does not happen, so in the end, there ends up being some place that allows you to feel that you did your best in terms of attempting to prepare both psychologically and financially, and maybe some people will never be happy because they will end up second guessing themselves when the BTC price goes contrary to what you had prepared and then you realize that you had unreasonably prepared more for one direction rather than the other.



We are not always going to agree, but hopefully in the end, a bit of back and forth can sometimes help each of us to try to know our selves better so that we can feel more comfortable about our preparations, even if we end up being wrong… which (being wrong) happens to each of us at one point or another.

Of course, there is a lot of luck in investing in anything, but persistent investing creates some of the luck in terms of if the investment ends up going up in the long run.   So, in some sense, if you do not have a lot of money to start with it is going to either take a long time or a lot of BTC price appreciation for you to either feel the effect or to become rich off of it, yet at the same time, you should be attempting to work with what you got rather than engaging in overly leveraging kinds of behaviors - and in that regard, bitcoin seems to continue to be one of the best investments out there in terms of considering both downside and upside risk and both downside and upside potential.

So a convincing definition of luck is where preparation meets opportunity.. so yeah, the idea of DCA investing is good, with a wee bit of front loading of the investment (if you can) combined with some levels of preparations to be able to buy on the dip, if the BTC price dips from here or if it ends up dipping at latter dates (presuming that it already went up and then dips at that point).

Do you believe that, “right now”, would be a good idea to front load the investment? For example if you had $10,000 available, would you use all that $10,000 in one trade, then DCA with 10% of your monthly salary?

Let’s assume that $10,000 is 10% of said person’s total networth.

Ok.  sure, if we are assuming that the person does not own any bitcoin, then it would be fine to get in, and even though 100% front loading (in terms of a lump sum) is recommended by some folks, I tend to want to divide that initial sum into 3 parts in order to account for trepidations that people might get in the event that the BTC price drops, then they have some of that money for buying on dips and DCA'ing... so the default position would be to divide the $10k into three and to go from there in terms of figuring out how to employ each of the three aspects.

So yeah, if there is also more cashflow coming in on a regular basis in the future, there could be an attempt to put 10% of the investment money (not 10% of the total income) into bitcoin because expenses need to be made and some assessment needs to be made about other investments too, and how to allocate... so yeah, by the time a person figures out their whole budget and how much money that they might have left that is available for investment, then it might be difficult to figure out how much to allocate into bitcoin. 

So for example, if we project that a person might have $3k of money coming in, but $2k is necessary for various expenses, so there is only $1k left for various investments (and than might even be a lot to be assuming that anyone is able to feel comfortable spending 33% of the cashflow on various investments), then from that there might be some decisions about how much of that to use for DCA into bitcoin, and other investments (for example maybe they have some kind of 401k with matching funds and there might be a decent incentive to at least put the maximum matching component into that)...


So individuals do tend to need to assess what is reasonable to be putting away and making sure that they have various kinds of funds that would be available for emergency withdraw, and some folks consider bitcoin as part of their emergency fund (especially because bitcoin tends to be pretty damned liquid, relatively speaking), which surely seems like a bad practice in my thinking.. because it is a form of being over-invested (because you should not be putting yourself into any kind of position to have to withdraw from any of your investments - especially bitcoin of a time that is not of your own choosing and we have seen that bitcoin has been very good as a very long term investment - at least so far).. so there should be some cash bonds of cash account that might earn low interest that would be drawn from in the event of an emergency and then during the emergency there might NOT be any ability to continue to invest into bitcoin until the various cash and emergency funds are replenished or on the way to being replenished, first.  I understand that hardly anyone creates several months of cash - or liquid funds - (maybe even 6 months or more) to be able to draw from, even though that is a best practice to stop them from playing roulette with their investment money and overinvesting... but many people (probably a vast majority of the population) have few clues about how to invest anyhow, because the ONLY assets of value that they may end up having would be their property, home (if they have one) and a 401k (if they have such option through their employer), and then they have hardly any fucking clue about how to have some kind of investment (and especially the temptation of having extra cash) while trying to build enough restraining themselves power to NOT be tempted into tapping into such reserve funds before it even reaches a level to be able to have other money to actually "invest."

Yes some of us here might be the exception to the rule and have learned how to actually invest, but we are likely a minority and many people have troubles relating to such concepts because they put their own spin on it, which tends to be treating their investments as forms of gambling.

In the next Bitcoin price surge going to six digits, I believe we can be confident that there will NEVER be any FUD coming from China to disrupt the bullishness of the market.



RIP CHINA FUD.

Buy the DIP, and HODL!

hodlers don't have to do anything, least of which selling their bitcoins! that is absurd to suggest otherwise just because price was above an arbitrary number.
there are a lot of people who don't trust exchanges so they will never deposit anything there. that means when there is a short term panic sell they also don't participate. instead they hold and enjoy their profit in long term.

for example we had a drop from $6k to $3k and those who were hodling are enjoying the 10x profit now that price is $30k regardless of the rest.

I believe, because of COVID-19’s mutation/new variants, that we will be living in one of the most extra-ordinary times in human history, which many of us can’t, or simply won’t comprehend. Society might not go back to “normal” anymore.

We are in a turning point when human civilization is starting to radically shift into a more restrictive environment. If there is an “asset” for censorship-resistance, OWN as much as you can.

Every trading and investment planning, but dip and hold for high or trade at high.if we can  buy dip with good amount and reservation it for longer periods then we could possibly profits from the investment.