I agree and maybe everyone will do something like this, because that's the best way to do it. but it looks like the sign you're saying that bitcoin bullish, hasn't been seen and it's only the movement that has been since the last ath formed bitcoin did that. always rising rapidly and falling back down and it seems bitcoin already feels that at the current price it is the most comfortable and stable price.

what you say is certainly true, that buying bitcoins when the price continues to fall, but bitcoins do it very quickly because soon it goes up. bitcoin keep on moving like this, so you have to really pay attention to each movement before you want to buy or sell it.

Regarding the point of your last sentence about needing to watch BTC price moves in the event that you want to buy or "sell" it, we are not talking about selling bitcoin in this thread as a strategy to accumulate bitcoin.

There is discussion about buying on the dip in order to be able to attempt to get more bitcoin based on such dips that happen from time to time.... so sure there is a kind of presumption that we would be buying on dips because we expect the BTC price to go up at some point or maybe even to go up more in the long run - even though in the short run there might be a lot of bitcoin dips.

Surely there are a few advantages in buying on dips in terms of both getting a better price, but also there are ways in which guys may also be able to frame (account for) their bitcoin holdings in such a way that buying on dips ends up bringing down their average costs per BTC... in the event that they want to account for their whole BTC portfolio in that kind of way.

Of course, when I discuss accounting options, some of these kinds of concept can become confusing to people because sometimes there are some forms of accounting that might be required if someone were to have to report to a government agency (such as a tax authority), but it seems that if you want to potentially empower yourself from the buying and managing of your bitcoin holdings, then sometimes there might be ways that you can categorize your own holdings in ways that help to inform you about how you are going to manage your portfolio...

For example, I recall in mid-2015, I had been in bitcoin for a little over a year and a half, and when I started buying bitcoin in late 2013, my very first bitcoin purchase was a kind of private sale and it was 1.24 bitcoin's purchased at $1,500 (so that would be $1,200 per bitcoin)... so that first BTC purchase was for a decently high price, and by the time that mid-2015 had arrived, the BTC price had been bouncing around in the mid-$200s for a long time, and my overall purchasing of BTC at various points in time between late 2013 and mid-2015, had caused my average price per BTC to come down to around $520-ish, even though I started out at $1,200 (as mentioned above)... Also, it could be conceived that my overall BTC portfolio was valued in the negative by more than half if we were going by the then current price of around $250, so that would be something like a 48% valuation ($250/$520). 

For my own purposes of attempting to manage my BTC portfolio, I had decided to create a spreadsheet and to create three categories for my BTC holdings in order to help myself to figure out what I wanted to do with parts of my BTC holdings, so I ended up creating three categories.  One category was my overall BTC holdings, a second category were all the BTC that I had acquired between mid-2014 and mid-2015, and a third category were all the BTC that I had acquired under $300 (which had mostly happened between December 2014 and mid-2015). 

The first category had an average cost per BTC of $580-ish, the second category had a value of around $330-ish and the third category had a value of around $240-ish.  So, I used those BTC in the third category as a kind of formula to be able to sell a proportion of them between the price of $250 and $330, and once the BTC price got above $330, then i would be able to use my bitcoin in the second category (which also contained those BTC in the third category) to maintain another formula for being able to sell a portion of those BTC in the second category between $340 and $520.  Of course, if I were to continue to buy and sell some BTC while the BTC price ranged between $250 and $520, the overall price of my BTC holdings (those BTC categorized in the first category) would change with the passage of time, and my actual cost per BTC had come down to around $500 by the end of 2015. 

I bring up these ideas not in order to derail this thread into the idea of selling BTC, but instead to attempt to provide examples of how any of us might categorize aspects of our BTC holdings in order to attempt to accomplish goals that we want to accomplish or to justify some of our own treatments of our BTC holdings... which also can help to empower us into be able to act when we might not otherwise be able to act.... So for example, if I had ONLY categorized my BTC holdings in terms of my overall costs per BTC, then I might not be able to justify doing anything with my BTC until the BTC price were to go over the cost per BTC of my whole portfolio.. which was then $520 and slowly coming down with my additional BTC purchases.

Instead, I was able to formulate some self-authorized abilities to act to sell portions of my BTC between $250 and $520-ish based on ways of accounting for my BTC into three categories rather than one category.

Regarding how some of us might consider our BTC dips of the recent months, surely we had experienced a dip of about 39% if we conceive of the November 9 ATH at $69k, and the December 3 bottom of $41,967, so in the meantime we have largely been bouncing within the price range of about $44k and $52k, so then there could be some questions about at what points to buy in the dip.  So for example, some of us might have already bought down to $42k-ish, and we might have either been saving some cash to buy in case the BTC price dips more, but so far it has not dipped below $42k, but also another practical matter is that nearly a month has past since such dip and maybe we have been spending some additional cashflow to buy BTC at whatever price we are at, or we might be holding some of that money that is coming in so that we can buy on further dip, but surely if more money comes in, then that could justify either just buying at the current price or maybe NOT setting our price targets as low in order to buy again.  For sure those are not easy determinations regarding whether new cash coming in might cause justification to just buy at current prices or to change our BTC buying price targets.... yet the longer that we are in bitcoin, the more likely it seems that we should be able to develop some kinds of systems for ourselves regarding how much cash we want to be holding or would we rather to have some of that value in BTC, even if the BTC price might go down from here (presuming that we were to buy at the current price which is at a bit more than $49k as I type this post).


Of course, there can be both psychological and financial justifications to attempting to formulate some kind of a theory for ourselves regarding what we might consider to be amongst the most probable of short to medium term BTC price movements.. even tough for sure we cannot really know with any levels of certainty whether our tentative ideas are going to play out, so new data could help us to change our perceptions.

I do not consider myself to be so rigid in my expectations that a four year model has to perform within exact four year parameters in order to still be an influential factor in terms of overall BTC price dynamics, whether projecting out in the next few months or further out.  I last updated my projections regarding the timeline for our peak on December 16 (my views have not changed too much since December 16) - and so surely I give higher likelihood to the peak coming sooner rather than later, but still I consider that there are some likely blow-off dynamics that are still at play, so if we have not gotten any kind of blow off top, then I have harder times speculating that the top is in (even though as you seem to imply, pooya87) we do not necessarily need a blow off top for this cycle to be over, even though I would consider that to be of minority likelihood.. it is still possible even if it has low likelihood from my perspective.


Of course, the ideas behind PlanB's model had predated PlanB's publishing of the model, so it is not like he was saying anything really new, but he was presenting the matter in the form of having a kind of data set to back up those kinds of stock to flow ideas.  I had recently seen some kind of a tweet or discussion from PlanB in which he stated that he had first published his S2F data in March of 2019 - so it would have been just prior to our April 2019 price rise and so at the time that PlanB published the data the BTC price was then at least a whole standard deviation below expectations and even maybe getting into the 2 standard deviations below expectations.

Of course, the longer that the model is in existence, then there are more data points to put in there, so if the model was plotted out in 2015, there would have been fewer data points in order to have as much confidence in trajectoring out the idea into the future based on fewer data points.  So in some sense, pooya87, I am coming to the opposite conclusion to you in terms of the value of the model as time passes.  Of course, you seem to be suggesting that there is a kind of invention of the data aspect, so you seem to be emphasizing the projection aspect of the model rather than the value of having more time for the data points to help to inform the model. but sure. maybe there is an aspect of an early 2019 invention.. because that's when the projections were first made within that particular model and PlanB has largely just been inputting new data points with the passage of time (so in the last nearly 3 years since PlanB first published the model), he has been inputting data within the model to show mostly conformity.. but as far as I know, he has not shifted the curve or anything like that, even though there are a lot of folks who accuse him of moving the goal posts along the way - but seems that some of those folks are ongoingly convoluting his discussion of a floor model with his having had created the S2F model and asserting that we are still on-track with the S2F model.

You seem to want to assert that the S2F model is not really telling us anything, which surely is not the case.

The model seems to be pretty heavily data driven in terms of plotting out historical prices and then attempting to project in advance... so I hardly give any shits if it ends up being correct or not, but it still seems to be amongst the best of the models, and surely I like to emphasize 4-year fractal as a separate model (that is already largely contained within stock to flow) and also exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles to be supplementing S2F's outline of what has happened to get us to where we are and where it points.... so to continue to assert chaos.. then that seems to be poo-pooing the value that comes from the theories asserted in the model.

In other words, there are all kinds of folks, including yourself, who seem to want to invent some kind of sorcery assertion without even accounting for what the most convincing models are asserting, including stock to flow.. so yeah, you can randomly say the world is random while at the same time inventing your own spin, and that's your choice if you want to downplay the ongoingly most relevant of underlying BTC price prediction models.

Sure there are a variety of ways that we can frame our anticipations in regards to what we believe the BTC price dynamics might be in the context of prior price performance too.

I read a bit of either contradictions in your framing or that you are just loosely wanting to spin your own models... I am not completely attached to the various current models that I continue to like to take into consideration. 

So in some sense I see you proclaiming that you don't really believe in a blow off top happening, but instead a kind of higher level of price appreciation that ends up getting drug out to a time frame that is longer than what we had expected and then the top would end up dragging out into late 2022 and end up in a kind of $400k arena, and I am not totally poo-pooing the idea, but surely I have some hostilities to the idea because I believe that bitcoin just does not work like that.  Sure there are people who are wanting to project a kind of kumbaya transition into stability and bitcoin does not do that, either.  From my perspective, Bitcoin does violence and battle and it is not going to be sweet, lovely, smooth and gradual... we have both a war going on, and we have the largest wealth transfer in history, so price is not going to play out without battles.... Sure, we might not be able to completely understand the fight that is going on, but it seems to be happening.   So one of the ongoing guarantees in bitcoin remains its volatility.

In other words, it seems to me that we have folks (let's call them bearwhales, incumbents, traditional financial status quo) who are almost always employing whatever tools or tricks that they have at their disposal to try to get the BTC price to go down, so they are going to end up pushing it down as far as they can and for long as they can, and part of the dynamics of that is that at some point they end up losing their ability to keep it down.... We have seen those kinds of battles play out over and over and over again in bitcoin, and sure the market was smaller and the tools were fewer, but still I cannot appreciate that the dynamics have really changed, even if we want them to have changed.

I'll agree with your having had recognized our two corrections of 59% in May and then our more recent correction of 39% from less than a month ago to have an effect on BTC price dynamics, but I don't believe it to have the effect that you believe it is going to have.... You are suggesting that the two corrections allow for bitcoin to enter into Kumbaya slower and steady UPpity rather than violent UPpity, and even though I can appreciate why you would come to that conclusion, I just have me doubts that our short to medium term bitcoin price UPpity (in the next 1 to 12 months) ends up playing out like that.  I personally am already accepting to the idea that our BTC price top for this cycle could end up getting delayed by 1, 2 or even 3 quarters, and of course a delay beyond 3 quarters may well cause me to have to reconsider how I am thinking about this whole matter, if we end up not having some kind of blow off top in or before the third quarter of 2022.

For sure I am thinking that anything below $200k is a bit of a whimpy blow off top, so I am also anticipating something higher than that and maybe into the supra $500k territories, even though for sure there might seem to be a lot of things that could end up interfering from such blow off top happening.  Don't get me wrong, in terms of my own personal BTC holdings, I am already quite well off with my situation, so frequently I consider any of these UPwards price moves as icing on the cake in the case that they do end up happening, because my personal portfolio has already outperformed my own better case scenarios expectations by multiples... maybe even by 10x.  So I hardly give too many shits on a personal level, even though of course, having more money does not really seem to be a bad problem to have.. to try to figure out how to spend what ends up being way more than what I had even imagined myself needing.

Also, don't get me wrong, I would prefer the stability situation to end up playing out and to have less severe drops, but I cannot really see those to be very likely, even though I accept that anything is possible.. and maybe there are 10-15% odds that something like what I perceive to be your more gradual (and seemingly kumbaya) scenario would end up playing out... perhaps? perhaps?


I think that the model accounts for all the things that you just mentioned by suggesting that they are hardly important in the whole scheme of things and bitcoin is going to do what it is going to do and those things that you mentioned are largely just noise.. including the china fucking around with the miners or whatever might have been happening with the hashrate in response to that, and sure maybe some aspects of some of these short term factors including liquidation event of March 2020 or the subsequent monetary irresponsibilities might push the BTC price in one direction or another in terms of exacerbating various aspects of the BTC price for short periods of time (and maybe even causing a need to shift the prediction curve of the model by 5% or 10% in one direction or another), but the dynamics within the model will suggest that bitcoin ends up getting back to the mean. 

And regarding the mean, if PlanB's model is suggesting that the mean for this whole halvening needs to be $100k for the model to be valid, and we still less than half way through this halving period.. so hard to be asserting that we need to panic yet. Yeah maybe he is wrong about the mean, and the mean ends up being $80k rather than $100k, and personally, I would suggest that even a 20% difference ends up being a big so what....close enough.

Yeah, I am not 100% fan of either the model or the various ways that PlanB will sometimes characterize his model including his incorporation of some of his floor model discussion and certainties around that, but I still think that the S2F model is amongst the best of the BTC price prediction models that we currently have, especially if we couple it with the four-year fractal (yes redundant) and with exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and metcalfe principles.

I didn’t say that, and you’re not listening, and you seem to put words in my mouth. Read what I’ve posted. Would you say then that S2F can predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with close to 100% accuracy for the next 50 years?

Plus market analysts found the cause of Bitcoin’s latest crash!


Rest in Peace.

There's nothing really wrong with your transposing BTC price performance timelines, yet I find PlanB's model to be way more compelling in terms of attempting to explain where we have been and where we might be going, in part because there are way more data points.. and there is already an acceptance of a kind of price performance range that is built into PlanB's jotting out of a kind of range that he (his model) believes the BTC price might end up.

By the way, what are your own preparations?  Do you buy or sell BTC based on any of your BTC price expectations or otherwise attempt to manage your BTC holdings based on whether you might be persuaded one scenario or another seems more likely?  Of course, there are some folks who might sell a bit of their holdings, and maybe some people sell a lot based on expectations, yet of course, this thread is attempting to figure out points at which to buy, so I suppose if there are expectations that the price might drop, then there might be tendencies to HODL more cash in order to attempt to still have cash available to take advantage of various dips that are expected.... and so if there is an expectation that the BTC price is going up rather than down, there might be a tendency to buy more at the current price or at the current dip level rather than to wait it out.


That's quite the refrain from you Wind_FURY to so frequently be suggesting that I need to read your posts and your meaning better, and if you believe that there is some kind of more clear meaning, perhaps the burden remains upon you to clarify what you mean a wee bit moar better.

In other words, I feel absolutely no need to go back and read any of the posts.  I made my post based on whatever information that I then had.  Whether I was refuting your personal point or making my own point or attempting some other feat has become a matter of record, so I find no need to be going back and trying to figure out if there had been some kind of meaningful and significant confusion.. which seems like a big ass waste of time to me.  

In other words (am I running out of words yet?), is there something that needs to be said to clarify?  I feel that I already said what I wanted to say, and I may have even repeated myself a few times, so I don't really have anything that is jumping out at me that I feel that I need to say.

Regarding our current dip, my next buy orders have been set at $44.5k-ish and in about $1k intervals down from there since about December 7th, and sure there were a couple of times that we had gotten within $1k to $2k of them filling... Before that, surely all of my buy orders were filling down to $42.5k-ish on December 3rd... so yeah there has been some additional waiting regarding if there is going to be more dip or whether the dip might be over.. I know that some people will get some additional cashflow with the passage of time, and a month is a decently long time to receive some additional cashflow, so then the question becomes whether to buy now or to wait for more dip, no?  Another part of the reason that having at least some of your newer cashflow dedicated to DCA is that you do not have to try to guess (and potentially stress out) about these kinds of matters.


When you refer to the market rebounding later, I imagine that you are referring to some kind of rebound in the coming months, no? 

From some of my previous posts, you will probably appreciate that I have decently-sized expectations that our peak for this particular cycle has not been reached yet, but hey, you never know.

In other words, do you have a plan in the event that we do not get recovery from here?

Well if you have been able to ride out various bitcoin waves since 2015, including keeping a decently high proportion of your networth in BTC then who am I to say otherwise. 

I do believe that each of us needs to be careful in terms of managing our cashflows and making sure that we are able to ride out nearly inevitable BTC volatility periods.  Of course, if our BTC portfolio is significantly in profits  - even in supra 46x profits, then it seems that we have flexibility including if we might need to shave some BTC off for some extra expenses, even if it might not be at a price dynamics time of our choosing, we still might NOT give too many shits if we are adequately and sufficiently in profits (even if we might have been better off to sell at a peak rather than during a dip).

So, yes, the preferred practice would be to try to maintain some cashflows to be able to make it through dip periods, and for sure we do not know how long the dip periods will last or even how long they will go.... so even in May/June/July, there may be some people who are worried that we had just experienced a 56% drop in BTC's price that ended up lasting for nearly 3 months, many of us longer time holders might proclaim something like: "So what?  Instead of being 65x in profits, I am ONLY 28.6X in profits.." which also ended up being a temporary status, too....so for sure being in profits gives more options, and also being significantly in profits seems to even give additional options, so long as we did not screw things up too much along the way.

I do also notice that there are quite a few longer term HODLers who do still also attempt to buy BTC on dips from time to time, and sometimes even if there are various shaving off of profits as the BTC price is rising, the overall quantity of shaving off of BTC might not even constitute very large portions of their overall BTC holdings.

I do also attempt to tell people if they had not been in bitcoin for one or two cycles, then they cannot necessarily expect to be in a position of considerable profits, so sometimes it can take a decently long time to both accumulate a decent amount of BTC and then second to start to feel that you are in sufficiently decent profits in order to feel as if you have more options.  So anyone new to bitcoin should not be rushing their getting to a more comfortable status, but surely there are ways to attempt to just be more aggressive, whether that is buying on dips and lump sum investing or my preferred method of establishing some kind of a somewhat aggressive DCA strategy.

Fair enough.

I can kind of appreciate the feeling.

In late 2013, when I got into bitcoin, my initial plan was just to create and then to follow a 6 month BTC accumulation budget, so I had not really figured out what my BTC accumulation target was until after I had extended my initial 6 months by an additional 6 months, which thereby brought me to a year of creating and following BTC accumulation based on two budget time periods.  So by the end of 2014, I figured that I had reached my 10% BTC accumulation goal, and I also figured that the remaining 90% of my investment portfolio could support me quite decently if my BTC were to go to zero.

Anyhow, since the BTC price stayed low for almost all of 2015, I did end up going past my initial 10% allocation into the ballpark of 13.5% by the end of 2015, and BTC's price appreciation through 2017 ended up causing my BTC to constitute about 85% of my total investment value, and the dip down to $3,124 brought it back down to around 45%, but then the subsequent run brought me back into the supra 90% arenas with my BTC too.

Sometime in 2016 I had reconsidered some of my earlier plans to engage in regular reallocations, which would have caused me to have had sold my BTC at various points, and instead I adopted a let the winners ride kind of framework for my approach to BTC.  So yeah, in the more than 8 years that I have been in bitcoin, my bitcoin holdings had risen quite a bit more than 50x (and yeah a few up and down waves within that), and my various fiat based investments ONLY went up around 70% during that same time, and surely even with the various news about the debasement of the USD that came more to light after March 2020, it has become more clear that even with 70% increased value of those various other non-BTC investments, they have likely NOT really increased in value in any kind of meaningful way.,. because it is becoming more and more clear that the dollar is ongoingly getting debased and worse so in recent times.....

And for sure the many of my assets are either equities, properties, but they are still related to dollar debasement and sure the dollar has been amongst the strongest of currencies, but we are still getting screwed even if some of our value is kept in dollars or maybe we have to spend dollars and hope that there is some value there in terms of goods/services that we might get from our use of the dollar.

 The considerable extremes of the dollars ongoing debasement and even our being lied to about the levels of inflation (6% my ass), causes us to recognize and appreciate that perhaps all of those other dollar related investments that I have are largely performing flat in terms of their dollar purchasing power; however, my BTC has not turned out to be flat and in fact my BTC seems clearly to be unambigously not flat with its 50x plus in appreciation in its dollar value...so sure, I did not even really give any shits about 50x price appreciation so long as my investment allows me some kind of meaningful appreciation above and beyond ongoing dollar debasements, and surely in recent times, it has become more clear that it does not hurt to have some extra price performance cushion in there with my BTC investment.

So, yeah I believe that various kinds of management that I have done with my BTC as compared iwth my various dollar related investments (and even property exposure) had largely kept my BTC holdings to be bouncing around in a kind of 88% to 94% relative valuation.. and yeah sometimes I have gotten somewhat nervous, too, about the level of exposure that seems to indicate in terms of how much of the value is in BTC as compared with other kinds of assets or investments, whether we are referring to amounts in dollars, or amounts in equities or property..

I have not put any value into gold or precious metals, and part of my rational for that was that I had considered bitcoin to be serving a similar kind of hedge, and surely it appears to have played out in my favor in terms of some of gold and PMs monetary value seem to be flowing into bitcoin, and whether we consider bitcoin to be 10x or even 1,000x better than gold, we should also be able to see how that has been playing out and likely to continue to play out in terms of bitcoin continuing to eat gold's lunch (an perhaps eating some of the lunch of other PMs too, to the extent that some of the other PMs might have monetary premiums that will end up flowing into BTC... Gresham's law).  In that regard, BTC is ONLY currently valued at about 1/10 gold's market cap, so 10x will likely be relatively easy, but getting to 100x or 1,000x seems plausible even though it could take quite a bit longer to play out.. maybe 10 years or even 50 years.. who knows, and my investment thesis in bitcoin is not reliant upon those matters playing out in the near future, even though they may well end up playing out and more icing on the cake for us BTC HODLers/accumulators.

The thing that would worry me about US dollar (if I were directly affected by it) is that the economy could pull another 2008 and crash hard. It is certainly long overdue and there is enough reasons for it too.
We already have the corruption worse than 2008 times, we also had the ginormous amount of money FED printed and on top of all that the pandemic wrecked the economy but the full effects of it hasn't shown up for some reason in dollar value.

As if it weren't enough, we also have all these countries that are slowly ditching dollar as reserve currency or for international trades. The only 2 reasons why dollar is valued this much! From tiny countries that are more like symbolic moves like el Salvador to the biggest economy in the world China which has been running their plan for a couple of years now.
Those newbies in Washington seem to be putting more wood in this fire too (or maybe it is gas ). Essentially they are polarizing the world where one side is the US and the other side is everyone else.

I strongly believe it will be excellent for bitcoin, the decentralized currency that was born out of the ashes of 2008 recession.
The only thing we can do is to accumulate more bitcoin while decreasing exposure to anything that is affected by USD devaluation and possible devastation.

The strategy you use in managing your finances is very good. Such a strategy can reduce risk so that you have a backup in case bitcoin goes down in price. With the way you do it, I believe you have the potential to get maximum profit.